Approaches to defining deltaic sustainability in the 21st century

Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, Год журнала: 2016, Номер 183, С. 275 - 291

Опубликована: Июнь 27, 2016

Язык: Английский

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Long-term impacts of climate change on coastal and transitional eco-systems in India: an overview of its current status, future projections, solutions, and policies

RSC Advances, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(18), С. 12204 - 12228

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Urbanization and industrial development are increasing rapidly.

Язык: Английский

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Modeling, challenges, and strategies for understanding impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods) on water quality in Asia: A review

Environmental Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 225, С. 115617 - 115617

Опубликована: Март 4, 2023

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are among the most expected recognized consequences change. Prediction water quality parameters becomes more challenging with these extremes since is strongly related to hydro-meteorological conditions particularly sensitive evidence linking influence factors on provides insights into future climatic extremes. Despite recent breakthroughs in modeling evaluations change's impact quality, informed methodologies remain restricted. This review aims summarize causal mechanisms across considering Asian methods associated extremes, such as floods droughts. In this review, we (1) identify current scientific approaches prediction context flood drought assessment, (2) discuss challenges impediments, (3) propose potential solutions improve understanding mitigate their negative impacts. study emphasizes that one crucial step toward enhancing our aquatic ecosystems by comprehending connections between through collective efforts. indices indicators were demonstrated better understand link for a selected watershed basin.

Язык: Английский

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Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas

Springer eBooks, Год журнала: 2018, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2018

Язык: Английский

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Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 635, С. 659 - 672

Опубликована: Апрель 24, 2018

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, adaptation mitigation. address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic SPA Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application full at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing multiple dimensions issues scale. Perhaps for reason, there are few such applications new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid approach that combines both expert-based participatory methods. The applied within DECCMA1 project with purpose exploring migration three deltas across West Africa South Asia: (i) Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) Mahanadi (India), (iii) Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) (Bangladesh/India). Using encompasses wide range (RCP8.5) combined SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), generate highly divergent challenging contexts against which robustness human natural systems tested. In addition, consider four distinct policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, restructuring, describe alternative bundles actions/measures under different trajectories. paper highlights importance (combined top-down bottom-up) (joint expert-stakeholder) methods addressing uncertainty decision-making. facilitates improved assessments plausible choices (including migration) uncertain changing conditions. concept, methods, processes presented transferable to other socio-ecological settings challenges.

Язык: Английский

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Temperature and precipitation projections over Bangladesh and the upstream Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna systems

Environmental Science Processes & Impacts, Год журнала: 2015, Номер 17(6), С. 1047 - 1056

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2015

South Asia is a region of complex atmospheric dynamics and therefore changes resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, combined with existing vulnerability to extreme weather events such as flooding, could put the at particular risk climate change. However, current projections for show range uncertainty, particularly in terms variability extremes precipitation. Focusing on Bangladesh encompassing parts Ganges, Brahmaputra Meghna river basins, we aim explore quantify model uncertainty change 21(st) century. We use results 17-member perturbed physics ensemble global which have been used drive higher resolution (25 km) regional over south 1971 2099. The temperature precipitation responses across are assessed including representation annual cycle, trends, extremes. 17 members consistently simulate mean temperatures by 2100 compared present day, ranging between 2.6 °C 4.8 °C. Additionally, all indicate around 8% 28%, though interdecadal one member showing slight decrease mid-century period. frequency light projected future, but an increase heavy events. Three ensemble, representing outcomes, selected further impacts modelling region.

Язык: Английский

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Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh

Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, Год журнала: 2016, Номер 183, С. 370 - 381

Опубликована: Сен. 13, 2016

Язык: Английский

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Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 376(2119), С. 20160448 - 20160448

Опубликована: Апрель 2, 2018

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms reduction impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles global sea-level rise (SLR) ocean pH projections 2300 1.5°C 2.0°C scenarios, a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. potential consequences these are then considered flooding, small islands, deltas, cities ecology. Under both mean (and temperature) stabilize within century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR only slowed continues beyond). Hence, while due reduced significantly by stabilization, especially after 2100, continue grow centuries. under exceeds 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential densely populated economically important stabilization. Given multiple steps that this will require, an pathways approach merits areas. article part theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding physical social challenges warming world above pre-industrial levels’.

Язык: Английский

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Hydrological Drought Instantaneous Propagation Speed Based on the Variable Motion Relationship of Speed‐Time Process

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 54(11), С. 9549 - 9565

Опубликована: Окт. 29, 2018

Abstract It is difficult to predict and track the propagation of a hydrological drought because it hard determine its speed. We propose useful framework for calculating instantaneous speed which includes development ( IDS ) recovery IRS ). First, run theory was applied subdivide individual events into stages times (drought duration duration). Then each event, including , were determined based on variable motion relationship speed‐time process commonly in physics. Finally, optimal theoretical values evaluated using cross‐validation method. Three hydrometric stations, located at upstream catchment with less human activities influence, chosen from different countries (China, United States, Germany) demonstrate satisfactory performance this proposed framework. The results indicate that can provide an assessment overall perform well identifying time these study areas. (or obtained by simulate actual duration) well. sensitivity correlated climate, characteristics, should be explored improve prediction.

Язык: Английский

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Seven centuries of reconstructed Brahmaputra River discharge demonstrate underestimated high discharge and flood hazard frequency

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 26, 2020

The lower Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh and Northeast India often floods during the monsoon season, with catastrophic consequences for people throughout region. While most climate models predict an intensified increase flood risk warming, robust baseline estimates of natural variability basin are limited by short observational record. Here we use a new seven-century (1309-2004 C.E) tree-ring reconstruction season discharge to demonstrate that early instrumental period (1956-1986 C.E.) ranks amongst driest past seven centuries (13

Язык: Английский

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