Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System†
International Journal of Wildland Fire,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
33(3)
Опубликована: Март 18, 2024
Background
Fire
danger
rating
systems
are
used
daily
across
Australia
to
support
fire
management
operations
and
communications
the
general
public
regarding
potential
danger.
Aims
In
this
paper,
we
introduce
Australian
Danger
Rating
System
(AFDRS),
providing
a
short
historical
account
of
in
as
well
requirements
for
an
improved
forecast
system.
Methods
The
AFDRS
combines
nationally
consistent,
spatially
explicit
fuel
information
with
weather
advanced
behaviour
models
knowledge
produce
locally
relevant
ratings
potential.
Key
results
A
well-defined
framework
is
essential
categorising
defining
based
on
operational
response,
impact
observable
characteristics
incidents.
modular,
supporting
continuous
incremental
improvements
allowing
upgrades
components
response
new
science.
Conclusions
provides
method
estimate
best
available
models,
leading
potentially
significant
way
calculated,
interpreted.
Implications
was
implemented
2022,
most
change
forecasting
more
than
50
years.
Язык: Английский
Live trial performance of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System – Research Prototype†
International Journal of Wildland Fire,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
33(4)
Опубликована: Март 28, 2024
Background
The
Australian
Fire
Danger
Rating
System
program
(AFDRS)
has
built
a
new
fire
danger
rating
system
for
Australia.
A
live
trial
of
the
system’s
Research
Prototype
(AFDRSRP),
based
on
behaviour
thresholds,
was
run
and
evaluated
between
October
2017
March
2018.
Aims
Live
results
are
critically
analysed,
knowledge
gaps
recommendations
future
work
discussed.
Methods
bushfire
experts
assessed
wildfires
prescribed
burns
across
range
vegetation
types
weather
conditions.
Forecast
ratings
calculated
using:
(1)
AFDRSRP;
(2)
Forest
Index
(FFDI)
Grassland
(GFDI)
were
compared
against
derived
by
expert
opinion
each
evaluation
(n
=
336).
Key
Overall
performance
AFDRSRP
superior
to
FFDI/GFDI
(56
vs
43%
correct),
with
tendency
over-predict
rather
than
under-predict
potential.
also
demonstrated
its
value
assess
in
fuel
not
conforming
current
grassland
or
forest
models;
e.g.
fuels
that
grouped
use
mallee-heath,
spinifex
shrubland
spread
models.
Conclusions
successful,
outperforming
existing
operational
system.
Implications
Identified
improvements
would
further
enhance
performance,
ensuring
readiness
implementation.
Язык: Английский
Australian Fire Danger Rating System Research Prototype: a climatology†
International Journal of Wildland Fire,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
33(3)
Опубликована: Март 21, 2024
Background
Historical
records
of
fire
weather
phenomena
provide
valuable
insights
into
spatial
and
temporal
trends
which
can
inform
further
research
are
important
tools
for
planning.
Aims
We
outline
a
19-year
climatology
Research
Prototype
(AFDRSRP),
the
new
Australian
Fire
Danger
Rating
System,
documenting
its
characteristics.
Methods
The
analysis
utilises
Bureau
Meteorology’s
high-resolution
reanalysis
suite
(BARRA),
together
with
fuel
data
provided
by
agencies.
examine
distribution
AFDRSRP.
Distributions
categorised
type,
analysing
relative
variability
across
time
space.
Key
results
validate
broad
behaviour
system
insight
variation
danger
throughout
Australia,
adding
detail
to
understanding
timing
peak
both
diurnally
annually.
Conclusions
While
AFDRSRP
differs
from
operational
in
rating
categories
tuning
algorithms,
it
nonetheless
provides
useful
implementation.
Implications
These
will
be
essential
planning
during
seasons.
Язык: Английский
An efficient and comprehensive field protocol for assessing fuel characteristics for fire behaviour modelling in Australian open forests
MethodsX,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown, С. 103345 - 103345
Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
A comment on the use of visually assessed fuel hazard ratings and scores for Australian fire management and research
International Journal of Wildland Fire,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
33(7)
Опубликована: Июль 2, 2024
Background
Assessment
of
fuel
hazard
has
become
the
dominant
method
describing
Australian
forest
complexes,
despite
a
lack
evidence
supporting
veracity
its
underpinning
assumptions.
Aims
To
analyse
and
discuss
merits
ratings
scores
in
representing
measurable
characteristics,
such
as
load
fire
behaviour
potential.
Methods
Published
findings
were
reviewed,
available
data
analysed
to
investigate
validity
assessment
concepts.
Key
results
Multiple
published
studies
showed
methods
be
subjective
non-replicable.
All
shows
no
relationship
between
quantity.
No
potential
was
found.
Conclusions
The
principles
use
for
shown
unfounded.
cannot
converted
into
physical
characteristics
or
potential,
application
management
is
unwarranted.
Язык: Английский