Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 380(1917)

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As planet rapidly warms, disruption ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating pace magnitude losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because non-uniform distribution biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are uneven populations across species’ thermal niche, or niche limits within an community, we show that in both cases, resulting clustering population tolerances drives nonlinear increases risk discuss how fundamental constraints physiologies geographical distributions give rise clustered tolerances, responses changing climates could variously temper, delay intensify dynamics. argue risks be null expectation under warming, highlight empirical research needed understand causes, commonness consequences better predict where, when why losses occur. This article part discussion meeting issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace’s legacy for biodiverse future’.

Язык: Английский

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Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 28(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such have been mainly produced distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts forest tree across Europe over last 12,000 years to compare reliability three different types models. We show that most climatically dissimilar conditions, process‐explicit (PEMs) tend outperform correlative (CSDMs), and PEM are likely be more than those made CSDMs end 21st century. These results demonstrate first time often promoted albeit so far untested idea explicit description mechanisms confers model robustness, highlight a new avenue increase projection future.

Язык: Английский

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Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographical range of the Mediterranean fruit fly

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2024

The species distributions migration poleward and into higher altitudes in a warming climate is especially concerning for economically important insect pest species, as their introduction can potentially occur places previously considered unsuitable year-round survival. We explore the expansion of climatically suitable areas horticultural pest, Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) Ceratitis capitata (Diptera, Tephritidae), with an emphasis on Europe California. reviewed refined published CLIMEX model C. capitata, taking consideration new records marginal locations, particular focus Europe. To assess fit to aid interpreting meaning European distribution records, we used time series dataset temporal patterns suitability from 1970 2019. At selected bellwether sites Europe, found statistically significant trends increasing suitability, well substantial northward modelled potential range. In California, also trend altitudinal establishment. These results provide further evidence change impacts need innovative responses increased invasion threats.

Язык: Английский

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Decadal-Scale Trends in Size of Mature Female Atlantic Blue Crab Callinectes sapidus in Estuarine and Nearshore Waters of the Southeastern US

Estuaries and Coasts, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 48(3)

Опубликована: Фев. 19, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Helminth ecological requirements shape the impact of climate change on the hazard of infection

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 27(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024

Abstract Outbreaks and spread of infectious diseases are often associated with seasonality environmental changes, including global warming. Free‐living stages soil‐transmitted helminths highly susceptible to climatic drivers; however, how multiple variables affect helminth species, the long‐term consequences these interactions, is poorly understood. We used experiments on nine trichostrongylid species herbivores develop a temperature‐ humidity‐dependent model infection hazard, which was then implemented at European scale under climate change scenarios. Intestinal stomach exhibited contrasting responses, former group strongly affected by temperature while latter primarily impacted humidity. Among demographic traits, larval survival heavily modulated hazard. According specific responses two groups, expected generate differences in seasonal spatial shifts hazard co‐circulation. In future, an intensification trends could create new opportunities for range expansion co‐occurrence central‐northern latitudes.

Язык: Английский

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A cautionary message on combining physiological thermal limits with macroclimatic data to predict species distribution

Ecosphere, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(7)

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024

Abstract Macroclimatic data are widely used to estimate the realized environmental niche of species and predict current or future spatial distribution species. Because is a subset fundamental niche—constrained by biotic interactions dispersal limitations—proxies (e.g., thermal limits obtained from physiological experiments) sometimes combined with macroclimatic under assumption that areas predicted as unsuitable perspective may belong species' niche. However, it unclear whether this valid can be data. Here, we explored these questions using available measured for 151 ectotherms. Specifically, larger than observed (realized) data, what would effect considering in addition predictions. Our results confirm previously raised concerns, delimit narrower range tolerance niche, particularly at cold end gradient where adaptive and/or facilitative mechanisms could allow survive temperatures below limits. These findings show combining on dubious predictions should interpreted caution because do not fit well capture conditions organisms experience wild. While estimated likely value complement studies, they more useful biophysical models account additional processes including animal's behavior.

Язык: Английский

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Patterns of interpopulation variation and physiological trade-offs of the acute thermal tolerance of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Frontiers in Fish Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 2

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

Introduction The capacity of species and populations to respond rapid environmental change will be pivotal for their resilience in the coming decades. To explore thermal plasticity, physiological trade-offs, associations with characteristics, we assessed heat hardening response acclimation juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from seven hatchery spanning diverse ecoregions along West Coast United States. Methods Progeny each population were acclimated one three temperatures (11, 16, or 20°C) subjected two acute maximum (CT MAX trials 24 h apart. (ΔCTM) was calculated as difference between an individual's second first CT trials. Acclimation determined fish 11°C 20°C during trial, capturing full acclimatory scope. Bayesian models employed test trade-off hypothesis, which posits that individuals higher tolerance have reduced acclimation. Trade-offs analyzed at both individual scales. Associations ΔCTM, capacity, source characteristics also examined using data a landscape-scale, regional, river temperature model. Results Fish 16°C exhibited (positive ΔCTM), while those “heat weakening” (negative rare phenomenon literature. At level, adhered associated plasticity. However, no such observed level. positively correlated latitude natural rearing environment. Additionally, ΔCTM performance improved when closer habitats. Discussion Individual did not. Thermal plasticity conditions, warmer habitats demonstrating greater capacities. This study highlights importance understanding interpopulation variation identify at-risk populations, colder limited like Trinity population. These findings emphasize need account differences predicting responses climate developing conservation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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The precipitation levels during the warmest quarter are the primary factor influencing the spatial distribution of Opatrum sabulosum

Biosystems Diversity, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 33(1), С. e2507 - e2507

Опубликована: Фев. 21, 2025

The present investigation aims to analyse the influence of bioclimatic predictors on geographical distribution species Opatrum sabulosum (Linnaeus, 1761) and predict changes in its range context global warming. sabulosum, a belonging Tenebrionidae family, exhibits high degree plasticity environmental requirements, yet remains susceptible impacts climate change. maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was employed model ecological niche, with data from GBIF database key variables such as temperature, precipitation, their seasonality being utilised. Forecasts were made for up 2080 under four change scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5. results indicate that factors affecting O. are minimum temperature coldest month, average quarter, amount precipitation warmest wettest quarters. analysis indicates that, current conditions, most favourable habitats located Western Europe, southern Britain, Scandinavia northern Black Sea region. In moderate warming scenario (SSP1-2.6), species' is projected expand an eastward northeasterly direction, driven by rising temperatures enhanced water balance. Conversely, extreme scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), decline habitat quality southeastern part due elevated temperatures, reduced humidity, instability climatic parameters. practical significance these lies possibility using develop adaptation strategies biodiversity conservation effective management natural resources. can serve basis assessing risks ecosystem creating new protected areas. Information regarding sensitivity also important sustainable development agroecosystems, which this plays role maintaining soil fertility. findings study directly pertinent attainment Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) established United Nations 2015. Specifically, contributes implementation SDG 13 'Combat change' providing more nuanced understanding effects ecosystems conditions. 15, 'Conserve terrestrial ecosystems', predicting helps conserve restore degraded ecosystems. integration into practices expected contribute ensuring sustainability, efficient use resources, creation harmonious environment future generations. Prospects further research include long-term monitoring populations, genetic assess adaptive potential, expanding anthropogenic land change, urbanisation agricultural activities. This will allow accurate forecasting future.

Язык: Английский

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Designing More Informative Multiple-Driver Experiments

Annual Review of Marine Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 16(1), С. 513 - 536

Опубликована: Авг. 25, 2023

For decades, multiple-driver/stressor research has examined interactions among drivers that will undergo large changes in the future: temperature, pH, nutrients, oxygen, pathogens, and more. However, most commonly used experimental designs-present-versus-future ANOVA-fail to contribute general understanding or predictive power. Linking design process-based mathematical models would help us predict how ecosystems behave novel environmental conditions. We review a range of designs assess best path toward ecology. Full factorial response surface, fractional factorial, quadratic custom, space-filling, especially optimal sequential/adaptive can achieve more valuable scientific goals. Experiments using these are challenging perform with long-lived organisms at community ecosystem levels. But they remain our promising linking experiments theory multiple-driver making accurate, useful predictions.

Язык: Английский

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Acclimation capacity of critical thermal maximum varies among populations: Consequences for estimates of vulnerability

Ecosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023

Abstract Adaptive plasticity in thermal tolerance traits may buffer organisms against changing temperatures, making such responses of particular interest the face global climate change. Although population variation is integral to evolvability this trait, many studies inferring proxies physiological vulnerability from extrapolate data one or a few populations represent species. Estimates can be further complicated by methodological effects associated with experimental design. We evaluated how varied their acclimation capacity (i.e., magnitude plasticity) for critical maximum (CTmax) two species tailed frogs (Ascaphidae), cold‐stream specialists. used estimates infer future warming. performed CTmax experiments on tadpoles 14 using fully factorial design holding temperatures (8 and 15°C) starting 15°C). This allowed us investigate acute transferring temperature different temperature, as well acclimated same temperature. found that most exhibited beneficial acclimation, where was higher held at warmer but markedly response inferred also substantially among populations, although accounting did not greatly alter level populations. These results underscore importance sampling widely when vulnerability, sensitivity assessing

Язык: Английский

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