The effects of wars: lessons from the war in Ukraine

Policy Studies, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 45(3-4), С. 261 - 281

Опубликована: Апрель 22, 2024

War remains a central feature of global politics and has been core focus for international relations, history, economics, sociology as well other cognate disciplines. The analysis the effects war has, however, tended to be compartmentalised by sub-disciplines. This article proposes heuristic framework map in terms ripple backwash across range interconnected layers societies. Through this framework, then introduces set empirically rich theoretically informed studies from multiple disciplines which examine first consequences Ukraine. Taken together, these show that had deep complex affecting human life; development; economies; values attitudes; policy governance; power distribution relations around world. Although broader public interest may have waned within weeks invasion, conflict continued many areas, but also differentiated space time. Traditional concepts used frame "external shocks" such punctuated equilibrium critical junctures overlook deep-seated diverse effects, warranting multidisciplinary lenses volume.

Язык: Английский

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Risk contagion between global commodity and financial markets based on two-layer networks and SIS model

Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 2025(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 4, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Financial markets' reactions to the 2023 Israel war: an empirical perspective from stock markets

Kybernetes, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 3, 2025

Purpose This study aims to underline the unique reactions of stock markets event war. The paper undertakes a comparative assessment impact ongoing Israel war on selected indexes leading markets. Design/methodology/approach research design this is based autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models (Bollerslev, 1986; Nelson, 1991) examine returns and volatilities, methodology (Fama et al. , 1969) assess abnormal surrounding days quantile regression approach (Koenker Bassett, 1978) further appraise robustness results. dataset includes principal exchanges collected from international region Findings results indicated significant effect volatility cumulative revealed several distinctive findings. Among them, two seminal indications can be pointed out. First, considerable declines were identified at window [2, 11] for entire sample capital Second, salient number established positive during post-event period outcome suggests that profits are possible instantaneously after Further, analysis demonstrated not showing substantial responses war, regional disclosed effects. In nutshell, in line with efficient market hypothesis. They documented significance wars Research limitations/implications findings notable investment decisions portfolio management. Evidence proposed performance advanced favorable Investors participants adopt output enhance strategies achieve sustainable returns. highlighted necessity policies support financial activities displayed damages due Such call close collaborations between policymakers business leaders. Besides, limitation possibly exclusion control variables lack data. Originality/value considered first originate current exchanges. it challenges have durable negative overall Therefore, core contribute prominent evidence steadily growing literature wartime.

Язык: Английский

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Military Conflicts and Stock Markets: The Effect of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the European Stock Market

Eastern European Economics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 43

Опубликована: Март 5, 2025

This paper examines the impact of Russian invasion Ukraine in 2022 on European stock markets. Our main findings are as follows. First, by distinguishing among developed, emerging and frontier markets, we find that these groups reacted heterogeneously to recent military invasion. Specifically, while most capital markets experienced a significant decline returns 24 February 2022, this effect was more pronounced persisted longer difference is further confirmed regression analysis. Second, document increase volatility market indices following onset political unrest, uprisings had little or no developed Third, similar results not found for world other indices, suggesting changes result tensions. Overall, important including geopolitical risk analyses performance stability.

Язык: Английский

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TARİHİN SONU TEZİ VE RUSYA UKRAYNA SAVAŞI

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 23(56), С. 1056 - 1076

Опубликована: Март 19, 2025

İnsanlık tarihi siyasi ideolojilerin kavramsal ve kuramsal mücadelesine tanıklık etmiştir. Fransız İhtilali, Sanayi Devrimi ile I. II. Dünya Savaşı gibi tarihsel olaylar test edildikleri birer laboratuvar görevi görmüşlerdir. Siyasi ideolojiler arasında liberalizm rakiplerine oranla nisbi başarılar elde etmiş bunu küresel sahada yaymaya çalışmıştır. 2014 yılında Rusya Ukrayna başlayan anlaşmazlıklar, 2022 Rusya’nın Ukrayna’ya müdahalesiyle devam müdahalesi, komünizm geçmişi olan bir devletin liberalizme karşı atağa geçtiği tartışmalarını beraberinde getirmiştir. Liberalizmin savunucusu Batı dünyası akademik alanda Rusya’yı saldırgan yayılmacı olarak nitelemiştir. Liberal ideolog Francis Fukuyama bu savaşa liberal eleştiriler yöneltmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı, Fukuyama’nın ileri sürdüğü tezlerin Rusya-Ukrayna savaşında dünyasının evrensel hedeflerine meşruiyet kazandırma amacını göstermektir. Bu çalışma, tarihin sonu kavramının, liberalizmin tek yenilmez ideoloji olduğu algısının entelektüel propagandası iddiasına dayanmaktadır. Dinamik döngü halinde bulunan hayatı, sonlanma şeklinde tanımlamaya çalışmak bilimsel gerçeklerle örtüşmemektedir. rakip olabilecek; Asya değerleri, köktendincilik milliyetçilik dünya çapında taban bulduğunu fark edince tezde yanıldığını kabul ötekileştirdiği karşısında meydan okuma karşıya kalmıştır. çalışma hazırlanırken konu ilgili kitap, kitap bölümü, makale, bildiri gazete haberleri incelenmiştir. eserlerinde “Tarihin Sonu” tezini çürüten karşılaştırmalı analiz yapılmıştır. Örnek olay seçilmiştir. kamuyounda bölgesel savaşın niteliğe dönüşme ihtimalini arttırmıştır. Savaşın geniş zamana yayılması yıkıcı etkisi kuramların kaldığını göstermiştir.

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Using machine learning to forecast clean energy, commodities, green bonds and ESG index prices: How important is financial stress?

EuroMed Journal of Business, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Сен. 25, 2024

Purpose This study investigates clean energy, commodities, green bonds and environmental, social governance (ESG) index prices forecasting assesses the predictive performance of various factors on these asset prices, used for development a robust support decision model using machine learning (ML) techniques. More specifically, we explore impact financial stress price. Design/methodology/approach We utilize feature selection techniques to evaluate efficacy prices. Moreover, have developed by assessing accuracy two ML models: deep long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. To check robustness results, authors referred bootstrap linear regression as an alternative traditional method Findings The results highlight significance in enhancing price forecast accuracy, with (FSI) panic (PI) emerging primary determinants. In terms model's our analysis reveals that LSTM outperformed XGBoost model, establishing itself most efficient algorithm among tested. Practical implications research enhances comprehension, which is valuable both investors policymakers seeking improved through utilization Originality/value authors' best knowledge, this marks inaugural attempt construct multivariate Indeed, utilizing provides practical value tool shaping investment strategies.

Язык: Английский

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The Impacts of the Conflicts Between Israel and Hamas, as well as Between Russia and Ukraine, on Financial Assets and Crypto-Currencies

Computational Economics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Ноя. 7, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Crypto-Assets, Uncertainties, and Geopolitical Risks

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access this page indefinitely Copy URL DOI

Язык: Английский

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The role of ESG in enhancing firm resilience to geopolitical risks: An eastern European perspective

Business Strategy & Development, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(4)

Опубликована: Окт. 17, 2024

Abstract Geopolitical risk (GPR) presents a profound challenge to firms, particularly in regions with persistent political instability. In Eastern Europe, where conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war heighten uncertainty, firms face immediate financial threats and long‐term strategic vulnerabilities. This study examines impact of GPR on firm performance, focusing moderating role environmental, social, governance (ESG) practices as resilience mechanism. Using comprehensive dataset 1360 publicly listed across Poland, Russia, Ukraine from 2014 2023, analysis employs base panel data regression model, followed by two‐step generalized method moments (GMM) approach account for endogeneity ensure robustness. The findings reveal significant negative relationship between measured return assets (ROA). Firms exposed higher geopolitical risks exhibit weaker profitability. However, stronger ESG performance demonstrate greater resilience, GMM results show that engagement moderates adverse effects suggests initiatives enhance adaptive capacity volatile environments. terms policy implications, should be promoted key strategy operating politically unstable regions. Governments regulatory bodies may consider mandatory disclosures incentivizing sustainability help mitigate external risks, improve attract stable investment. Aligning corporate strategies global standards is essential ensuring business amid ongoing threats.

Язык: Английский

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Decoding the stock market dynamics in the banking sector: Short versus long-term insights

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 75, С. 102311 - 102311

Опубликована: Ноя. 13, 2024

Язык: Английский

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