Using rare event algorithms to understand the statistics and dynamics of extreme heatwave seasons in South Asia DOI Creative Commons
Clément Le Priol, Joy Merwin Monteiro, Freddy Bouchet

и другие.

Environmental Research Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(4), С. 045016 - 045016

Опубликована: Сен. 26, 2024

Abstract Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing impact climate change on such is fundamental to event attribution studies. However, rarity in observational record makes this task a challenging one, even more so for ‘record-shattering’ that have not been previously observed at all. While models could be used simulate extremely rare events, an approach entails huge computational cost: gathering robust statistics with time centuries would require few thousand years simulation. In study, we use innovative tool, algorithm, allows us sample numerous much lower cost than direct simulations. We employ algorithm heatwave seasons, corresponding large anomalies seasonal average temperature, hotspot South Asia using global model Plasim. show estimates levels greater precision traditional statistical fits. It also enables computation various composite statistics, whose accuracy demonstrated through comparison very long control run. particular, our results reveal seasons are associated anticyclonic anomaly embedded within large-scale hemispheric quasi-stationary wave-pattern. Additionally, accurately represents intensity-duration-frequency sub-seasonal heatwaves, offering insights into both aspects seasons. This studies better constrain changes event’s probability intensity warming, particularly spanning or millennia.

Язык: Английский

Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events DOI Creative Commons
Tom Matthews, Colin Raymond, Josh Foster

и другие.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 4, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
Plastic particles and their additives promote plant invasion through physicochemical mechanisms on seed germination DOI Creative Commons
Yudi M. Lozano,

Lena Landt,

Matthias C. Rillig

и другие.

Journal of Ecology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 2, 2025

Abstract Plant invasions pose a major threat to terrestrial biodiversity, and microplastic pollution in soil could exacerbate this problem. Seed germination, crucial stage for plants, can be affected by microplastics through both physical interference of plastic particles chemical leaching from additives. We conducted greenhouse experiment using native invasive plant species European grasslands, evaluated individual combined effects additives on germination parameters. found that primarily seed as agents, while these exerted comparatively lesser impact. Particles negatively all species. Germination velocity, synchrony total decreased ~30%, ~11% ~11%, respectively, soils containing compared those without. Certain were For Achillea millefolium Dactylis glomerata , velocity ~26% ~7%, ~21% with than without them. Plastic may have blocked pores inhibited hypocotyl radicle growth, toxic compounds disrupted key processes. By contrast, generally did not affect species, suggesting the negative experienced natives, whether or chemical, counteracted resulting novel conditions created microplastics, which include amelioration properties such increased porosity aeration, potential positive plant–soil feedbacks. Invasive profit windows variable resource availability, germination. Synthesis . promote invasion affecting having neutral The delayed natives due poses threat, leading competitive disadvantages, reduced reproductive success vulnerability Microplastic appears favour over during early stages highlighting effect ecosystems more severe previously thought.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Increasing Coarse Aerosols Mitigated the Warming Effect of Anthropogenic Fine Particle Reductions in Europe DOI Creative Commons
Cui Chen, Pengfei Tian,

Wenfang Wang

и другие.

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Abstract Recent decades have seen substantial variations in the physicochemical characteristics of atmospheric aerosols with expected continued changes future. While sustained global emission controls yielded significant environmental benefits, associated climate penalty from complex radiative effects has induced additional warming, raising public concern. Our study reveals that increased coarse particles enhance fine particle coagulation, contributing to higher levels and a reduction peak size, thereby scattering more solar radiation mitigating warming reduced Europe. From 1999 2021, offset 24.6% (26.3%) cooling effect at top (ground) atmosphere reductions. findings highlight but role aerosol size influencing budget, offering potential relief for concerns bolstering emissions efforts, important European implications amid ongoing anthropogenic cuts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Western Europe's extreme July 2019 heatwave in a warmer world DOI Creative Commons
Hylke de Vries, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard

и другие.

Environmental Research Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(3), С. 035005 - 035005

Опубликована: Май 29, 2024

Abstract Summertime heatwaves are extreme events with a large societal impact. Intensity, duration and spatial extent, all heatwave properties projected to increase in warming world, implying that summers qualified as the past will become increasingly normal. In this paper we quantify how changes play out for July 2019 European shattered temperature records throughout Western Europe. We combine storyline approach ensemble Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) high-resolution dynamical downscaling. The downscaling is done regional climate model (RACMO2, 12 km resolution) convection-permitting (HCLIM-AROME, 2.5 resolution). Under PGW maximum during rises 1.5 times faster than global mean, even at moderate levels impact tangible. Moreover, there no sign off higher levels, +4K above present-day temperatures could reach 50 ∘ C. During cities islands of heat where daily maxima night-time minima up 5 C rural areas show ultra-high resolution HCLIM-AROME simulations 150 m resolution.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut‐off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event DOI Creative Commons
Vikki Thompson, Dim Coumou, Vera Melinda Gálfi

и другие.

Atmospheric Science Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 25(10)

Опубликована: Авг. 14, 2024

Abstract In July 2021, a cut‐off low‐pressure system brought extreme precipitation to Western Europe. Record daily rainfall totals led flooding that caused loss of life and substantial damage infrastructure. Climate change can amplify extremes via thermodynamic processes, but the role dynamical changes is uncertain. We assess how dynamics involved in this particular event are changing using flow analogues. Using past present periods reanalyses large ensemble climate model data present‐day 2°C warmer climate, we find best analogues become more similar observed over Europe 2021. This may imply rain events will occur frequently future. Moreover, magnitude analogue lows has deepened, associated air masses contain precipitable water. Simulations future show could lead intense further east than current due shift pattern. Such unprecedented have consequences for society, need mitigate adapt reduce impacts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Predicting Cloud‐To‐Ground Lightning in the Western United States From the Large‐Scale Environment Using Explainable Neural Networks DOI Creative Commons
Dmitri Kalashnikov, Frances V. Davenport, Zachary M. Labe

и другие.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(22)

Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2024

Abstract Lightning is a major source of wildfire ignition in the western United States (WUS). We build and train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to predict occurrence cloud‐to‐ground (CG) lightning across WUS during June–September from spatial patterns seven large‐scale meteorological variables reanalysis (1995–2022). Individually trained CNN models at each 1° × grid cell ( n = 285 CNNs) show high skill predicting CG days (median AUC 0.8) perform best parts interior Southwest where summertime most common. Further, interannual correlation between observed predicted r 0.87), demonstrating that locally CNNs realistically capture year‐to‐year variation activity WUS. then use layer‐wise relevance propagation (LRP) investigate predictor successful prediction cell. Using maximum LRP values, our results two thermodynamic variables—ratio surface moist static energy free‐tropospheric saturation energy, 700–500 hPa lapse rate—are relevant predictors for 93%–96% depending on variant used. As not directly simulated by global climate models, these could be used parameterize assess changes future with projected change. Understanding risk consequently lightning‐caused inform fire management, planning, disaster preparedness.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
How Could 50°C Be Reached in Paris: Analysing the Cmip6 Ensemble to Design Storylines for Adaptation DOI
Pascal Yiou, Robert Vautard, Yoann Robin

и другие.

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access this page indefinitely Copy URL DOI

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Maxium Temerature Forecasting by Random Forest Approach Elman Recurrent Neural Network Statistical Distributions and Extreme Value Theory DOI

Amellas,

Echchelh,

Djebli

и другие.

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Persistent Extreme Surface Solar Radiation and Its Implications on Solar Photovoltaics DOI Creative Commons
Guillaume Senger, Boriana Chtirkova, Doris Folini

и другие.

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(8)

Опубликована: Авг. 1, 2024

Abstract Climatic extreme events are important because they can strongly impact humans, infrastructure, and biodiversity will be affected by a changing climate. Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) is the primary energy source for solar photovoltaics (PV), which indispensable in future zero‐emissions systems. Despite their pivotal role, SSR remain under‐documented. We provide starting point analysis focusing on caused internal variability alone therefore building baseline research. analyze using daily‐mean data from pre‐industrial control simulations (piControl) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6. investigate role PV generation Global Energy Estimator with intent strengthening system's resilience. Our results show pronounced asymmetry between consecutive days extremely high low radiation over land, former occurring more frequently than latter. Moreover, our call detailed modeling that includes panel geometry. Simple models based linear representations prove insufficient due to seasonal variations strong non‐linear dependency extremes. demonstrate how climate model leveraged understand persistent extremes relevant

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation DOI
Pascal Yiou, Robert Vautard, Yoann Robin

и другие.

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 36, С. 100518 - 100518

Опубликована: Сен. 23, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0