State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers
Journal of The Royal Society Interface,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
22(222)
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
The
current
situation
of
COVID-19
measures
makes
it
difficult
to
accurately
assess
the
prevalence
SARS-CoV-2
due
a
decrease
in
reporting
rates,
leading
missed
initial
transmission
events
and
subsequent
outbreaks.
There
is
growing
recognition
that
wastewater
virus
data
assist
estimating
potential
infections,
including
asymptomatic
unreported
infections.
Understanding
hidden
behind
reported
cases
critical
for
decision-making
when
choosing
appropriate
social
intervention
measures.
However,
models
implicitly
assume
homogeneity
human
behaviour,
such
as
shedding
patterns
within
population,
making
challenging
predict
emergence
new
variants
variant-specific
or
parameters.
This
can
result
predictions
with
considerable
uncertainty.
In
this
study,
we
established
state-space
model
based
on
viral
load
both
infection
numbers.
Our
using
showed
high
goodness-of-fit
case
numbers
despite
dataset
waves
two
distinct
variants.
Furthermore,
successfully
provided
estimates
infection,
reflecting
superspreading
nature
transmission.
study
supports
notion
surveillance
modelling
have
effectively
Язык: Английский
The Crucial Role of Laboratory Medicine in Addressing Future Public Health Infectious Threats: Insights Gained from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Diagnostics,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
15(3), С. 323 - 323
Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2025
Laboratory
testing
has
played
a
pivotal
role
throughout
the
coronavirus
disease
2019
(COVID-19)
pandemic,
exemplifying
importance
of
in
vitro
diagnostics
addressing
public
health
threats
posed
by
outbreaks
infectious
diseases.
This
article
aims
to
present
key
insights
from
our
expertise,
derived
evidence
gathered
during
COVID-19
inform
strategies
for
managing
future
challenges.
Current
scientific
underscores
that
patient
sample
not
only
allows
diagnose
an
acute
severe
respiratory
syndrome
2
(SARS-CoV-2)
infection,
but
also
supports
outbreak
prediction,
improved
control
measures,
anticipation
pressure
on
healthcare
system,
mitigation
adverse
clinical
outcomes,
and
early
detection
emerging
SARS-CoV-2
variants.
Additionally,
wastewater
monitoring
emerged
as
powerful
tool
forecasting
burden,
including
both
prevalence
severity.
Collectively,
these
findings
underscore
value
diagnostic
surveillance
guiding
planning
optimizing
resource
allocation
offering
valid
framework
be
applied
threats,
especially
any
potential
“Disease
X”
may
emerge
future.
Язык: Английский