Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability DOI Creative Commons
Buwen Dong, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ioana Colfescu

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2024

Abstract Significant changes have occurred during the last few decades across North Atlantic climate system, including in atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. These large-scale play a vital role shaping regional extreme weather events UK western Europe. This review synthesizes characteristics of observed atmospheric oceanic circulations past decades, identifies drivers physical processes responsible for these changes, outlines projected due to anthropogenic warming, discusses predictability circulations. On multi-decadal time scales, internal variability, forcings (especially greenhouse gases), natural (such as solar variability volcanic eruptions) are identified key contributors However, there remain many uncertainties regarding detailed various influences, some cases their relative importance. We therefore conclude that better understanding drivers, more precise quantification roles, crucial reliable decadal predictions projections

Язык: Английский

Contrasting internally and externally generated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the role for AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations DOI Creative Commons
Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, Matthew Menary

и другие.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 381(2262)

Опубликована: Окт. 22, 2023

Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has long been thought to be an expression of low-frequency in the Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, alternative hypotheses have forwarded, including that AMV is primarily externally forced. Here, we review current state play by assessing historical simulations made for sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6). Overall, importance external forcing sensitive type index used, due globally coherent forced signals models. There are also significant contrasts between processes drive internally and AMV, but these can isolated exploring multivariate AMV. Specifically, internal CMIP6 models consistent with important role ocean circulation AMOC largely a surface-flux mechanism little ocean. fingerprint similar observed, appears inconsistent observations. Therefore, climate still suggest key dynamics, specifically AMOC, observed Nevertheless, remain deficient number areas, stronger dynamical changes cannot ruled out. This article part discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations challenges'.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

9
A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade DOI Creative Commons
Vimal Koul, Andrew Ross, Charles A. Stock

и другие.

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(17)

Опубликована: Сен. 3, 2024

Abstract The capability to anticipate the exceptionally rapid warming of Northwest Atlantic Shelf and its evolution over next decade could enable effective mitigation for coastal communities marine resources. However, global climate models have struggled accurately predict this due limited resolution; past regional downscaling efforts focused on multi‐decadal projections, neglecting predictive skill associated with internal variability. We address these gaps a high resolution (1/12°) ensemble dynamically downscaled decadal predictions. simulations predicted oceanic variability at scales relevant resource management, typically exceeding coarse‐resolution Over long term, is projected continue; however, we forecast temporary pause in decade. This attributed transient, moderate strengthening meridional overturning circulation southward shift Gulf Stream.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s DOI Creative Commons
Jens Terhaar, Linus Vogt, Nicholas P. Foukal

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for global ocean carbon and heat uptake, controls the climate around North Atlantic. Despite its importance, quantifying AMOC's past changes assessing vulnerability to change remains highly uncertain. Understanding AMOC has relied on proxies, most notably sea surface temperature anomalies over subpolar Here, we use 24 Earth System Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) demonstrate that these cannot robustly reconstruct AMOC. Instead, find air-sea flux north of any given latitude in between 26.5°N 50°N are tightly linked anomaly at decadal centennial timescales. On timescales, strongly AMOC-driven northward through conservation energy. annual however, mostly altered by atmospheric variability less anomalies. Based here identified relationship observation-based estimates reanalysis products, averaged not weakened 1963 2017 although substantial exists all latitudes. overturning circulation authors CMIP6 25.6°N this relationship, they 26.5° 2017.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability DOI Creative Commons
Buwen Dong, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ioana Colfescu

и другие.

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 63(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Significant changes have occurred during the last few decades across North Atlantic climate system, including in atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. These large-scale play a vital role shaping regional extreme weather events UK Western Europe. This review synthesizes characteristics of observed atmospheric oceanic circulations past decades, identifies drivers physical processes responsible for these changes, outlines projected due to anthropogenic warming, discusses predictability circulations. On multi-decadal time scales, internal variability, forcings (especially greenhouse gases), natural (such as solar variability volcanic eruptions) are identified key contributors However, there remain many uncertainties regarding detailed various influences, some cases their relative importance. We therefore conclude that better understanding drivers, more accurate quantification roles, crucial reliable decadal predictions projections The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State DOI Creative Commons
Brady Ferster, Alexey V. Fedorov, Emmanuel Mignot

и другие.

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 52(3)

Опубликована: Фев. 9, 2025

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate modes Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) using perturbation experiments with Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal DMD var centennial CEN ). The former driven largely by temperature anomalies in subpolar North Atlantic, while latter salinity western Atlantic. amplitude each mode scales linearly mean strength IPSL experiments. correlates well across CMIP6 models, does not. These findings suggest that depends robustly on state, may be model‐dependent.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Decadal variability of summer extreme heat in central-eastern China and its synergistic effects by the North Atlantic and tropical western Pacific SST DOI Creative Commons
Tiejun Xie,

Hui Gao,

Ting Ding

и другие.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 8(1)

Опубликована: Май 27, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Multidecadal Temperature Variability in the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble DOI Creative Commons
Alejandro Fernandez, Byron A. Steinman, Michael Mann

и другие.

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 52(11)

Опубликована: Май 31, 2025

Abstract We investigate the characteristics of inter‐ and multidecadal temperature variability in Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble through spatiotemporal spectral analysis forced internal fields. find high density North Atlantic (NA) global that is concurrent with periods volcanic activity, suggesting a origin. There no evidence ensemble an internally‐generated time‐persistent signal for Multidecadal Variability (AMV), dominant mode on those timescales. The spatial patterns low‐frequency indicate activity throughout Pacific, where signals persist to greater extent after removed, contrast NA only subpolar region associated deep water formation active. Subtropical tropical regions are strongly responses, canonical AMV pattern comprised both components, latter being main driver.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges DOI Creative Commons
Meric Srokosz, N. Penny Holliday, Harry L. Bryden

и другие.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 381(2262)

Опубликована: Окт. 22, 2023

This paper provides an introduction to the special issue of Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London papers from 2022 meeting on 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'. It background rationale for meeting, briefly summarizes prior progress observing Atlantic overturning circulation draws out challenges that presented at raise, so pointing way forward future research. article is part a discussion

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

5
Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability DOI Creative Commons
Buwen Dong, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ioana Colfescu

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2024

Abstract Significant changes have occurred during the last few decades across North Atlantic climate system, including in atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. These large-scale play a vital role shaping regional extreme weather events UK western Europe. This review synthesizes characteristics of observed atmospheric oceanic circulations past decades, identifies drivers physical processes responsible for these changes, outlines projected due to anthropogenic warming, discusses predictability circulations. On multi-decadal time scales, internal variability, forcings (especially greenhouse gases), natural (such as solar variability volcanic eruptions) are identified key contributors However, there remain many uncertainties regarding detailed various influences, some cases their relative importance. We therefore conclude that better understanding drivers, more precise quantification roles, crucial reliable decadal predictions projections

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0