Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting DOI Creative Commons

I Ogi-Gittins,

Jonathan A. Polonsky,

M. Keita

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Professor Pierre Magal made important contributions to the field of mathematical biology before his death on February 20, 2024, including research in which epidemiological models were used study ends infectious disease outbreaks. In related work, there has been interest inferring (in real-time) when outbreaks have ended and control interventions can be relaxed. Here, we analyse data from 2018 Ebola outbreak Équateur Province, Democratic Republic Congo, during an Response Team (ERT) was deployed implement public health measures. We use a renewal equation transmission model perform quasi real-time investigation into ERT could withdrawn safely at tail end outbreak. Specifically, each week following arrival ERT, calculate probability future cases if is withdrawn. First, show that similar estimates obtained either daily or weekly case reports. This demonstrates high temporal resolution reporting may not always necessary determine Second, demonstrate how under-reporting accounted for rigorously estimating cases. find that, lower level reporting, longer it wait after apparent final removed (with only small additional cases). Finally, uncertainty extent included Our highlights importance accounting deciding remove

Язык: Английский

Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems DOI Creative Commons
Louise Kimpton, L. Mihaela Păun, Mitchel J. Colebank

и другие.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 383(2292)

Опубликована: Март 13, 2025

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential aspect of computational modelling and statistical prediction. Multiple applications, including geophysics, climate science aerospace engineering, incorporate UQ in the development translation new technologies. In contrast, application to biological healthcare models understudied suffers from several critical knowledge gaps. era personalized medicine, patient-specific modelling, digital twins , a lack understanding appropriate implementation methodology limits success simulation clinical setting. The main contribution our review article emphasize importance current deficiencies frameworks for systems. As introduction special issue on this topic, we provide overview methodologies, their applications non-biological systems gaps opportunities development, as later highlighted by authors publishing issue. This part theme ‘Uncertainty (Part 1)’.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Finding the Integral-Equation-Based Linear Renewal Density Equation and Analytical Solutions DOI Open Access
Muharrem Tuncay Gençoğlu

Symmetry, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(3), С. 453 - 453

Опубликована: Март 18, 2025

In this study, the linear renewal equation is obtained by using integral equation, function and Fourier–Stieltjes transform. It proven that can be taking derivative of equation. Analytical methods for solution are discussed. shown a powerful tool model direct relationship between stochastic processes density functions. transform allows to simplified in frequency domain analytical solutions obtained, Laplace provides an effective method, especially uniform distribution exponential The equation-based derived study preserves temporal structural symmetries system, allowing derivation symmetric forms space. light findings, predictions were made about what kind studies would done future.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting DOI Creative Commons

I Ogi-Gittins,

Jonathan A. Polonsky,

M. Keita

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Professor Pierre Magal made important contributions to the field of mathematical biology before his death on February 20, 2024, including research in which epidemiological models were used study ends infectious disease outbreaks. In related work, there has been interest inferring (in real-time) when outbreaks have ended and control interventions can be relaxed. Here, we analyse data from 2018 Ebola outbreak Équateur Province, Democratic Republic Congo, during an Response Team (ERT) was deployed implement public health measures. We use a renewal equation transmission model perform quasi real-time investigation into ERT could withdrawn safely at tail end outbreak. Specifically, each week following arrival ERT, calculate probability future cases if is withdrawn. First, show that similar estimates obtained either daily or weekly case reports. This demonstrates high temporal resolution reporting may not always necessary determine Second, demonstrate how under-reporting accounted for rigorously estimating cases. find that, lower level reporting, longer it wait after apparent final removed (with only small additional cases). Finally, uncertainty extent included Our highlights importance accounting deciding remove

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0