Disruptions in global trade routes: market reactions to the US–Houthi conflict in the consumer cyclical sector
International Journal of Development Issues,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2025
Purpose
This
study
aims
to
investigate
the
market
reaction
in
cyclical
consumer
sector
US–Houthi
conflict.
Furthermore,
authors
explore
impact
of
this
conflict
on
reactions
by
and
region.
Design/methodology/approach
Using
an
event
methodology,
paper
analyze
a
sample
1,973
companies.
used
multiple
windows,
including
15-day
period
before
invasion
announcement
as
preinvasion
after
postinvasion
event.
Findings
The
find
that
pre
war,
tended
show
positive
reaction,
but
toward
day
until
post
event,
actually
reacted
significantly
negatively
conflict,
especially
developed
developing
markets.
Asia
Pacific
is
feels
most
negative
from
compared
other
terms
industry
types
staples
sector,
Food
Tobacco
Personal
Household
Products
Services
felt
impact,
although
majority
all
industries
negatively.
Originality/value
focuses
has
not
been
extensively
studied
context
reactions.
Unlike
previous
research,
specifically
examines
emphasizing
significance
trade
route
disruptions,
particularly
Suez
Canal,
global
By
providing
insights
into
how
such
geopolitical
events
affect
different
regions
industries,
offers
valuable
guidance
for
policymakers
managers
mitigating
adverse
effects
risks
stability.
Язык: Английский
Market reaction to dividend announcements during COVID-19 pandemic in ASEAN countries
Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2025
Purpose
This
study
aims
to
investigate
the
market
reaction
dividend
announcements
in
five
ASEAN
countries
during
COVID-19
pandemic.
We
focus
on
sectors
that
are
less
vulnerable
pandemic,
such
as
communication
services,
consumer
staples,
healthcare
and
information
technology.
Design/methodology/approach
A
sample
of
5,648
from
listed
companies
is
utilized
for
this
study,
employing
event
method.
The
measured
using
cumulative
abnormal
return
(CAR),
cross-section
regression
employed
examine
determinants
reaction.
Findings
findings
reveal
a
significant
positive
technology
following
announcement
an
increase
or
decrease
dividends.
These
results
imply
serve
signal
investors
amidst
However,
does
not
respond
significantly
decreased
constant
dividends
pandemic
they
perceived
unfavorable
signals.
paper
also
highlights
role
tool
through
which
express
optimism
facing
challenges
posed
by
their
investors.
Practical
implications
Originality/value
offers
novel
cross-country
analysis
region,
considering
both
post-pandemic
periods
focusing
impacted
COVID-19.
Unlike
previous
studies
limited
single-country
sector-specific
analyses,
our
research
uniquely
addresses
broader
context
includes
insights
into
“new
normal”
period.
Язык: Английский
Financial markets' reactions to the 2023 Israel war: an empirical perspective from stock markets
Kybernetes,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Март 3, 2025
Purpose
This
study
aims
to
underline
the
unique
reactions
of
stock
markets
event
war.
The
paper
undertakes
a
comparative
assessment
impact
ongoing
Israel
war
on
selected
indexes
leading
markets.
Design/methodology/approach
research
design
this
is
based
autoregressive
conditional
heteroscedasticity
models
(Bollerslev,
1986;
Nelson,
1991)
examine
returns
and
volatilities,
methodology
(Fama
et
al.
,
1969)
assess
abnormal
surrounding
days
quantile
regression
approach
(Koenker
Bassett,
1978)
further
appraise
robustness
results.
dataset
includes
principal
exchanges
collected
from
international
region
Findings
results
indicated
significant
effect
volatility
cumulative
revealed
several
distinctive
findings.
Among
them,
two
seminal
indications
can
be
pointed
out.
First,
considerable
declines
were
identified
at
window
[2,
11]
for
entire
sample
capital
Second,
salient
number
established
positive
during
post-event
period
outcome
suggests
that
profits
are
possible
instantaneously
after
Further,
analysis
demonstrated
not
showing
substantial
responses
war,
regional
disclosed
effects.
In
nutshell,
in
line
with
efficient
market
hypothesis.
They
documented
significance
wars
Research
limitations/implications
findings
notable
investment
decisions
portfolio
management.
Evidence
proposed
performance
advanced
favorable
Investors
participants
adopt
output
enhance
strategies
achieve
sustainable
returns.
highlighted
necessity
policies
support
financial
activities
displayed
damages
due
Such
call
close
collaborations
between
policymakers
business
leaders.
Besides,
limitation
possibly
exclusion
control
variables
lack
data.
Originality/value
considered
first
originate
current
exchanges.
it
challenges
have
durable
negative
overall
Therefore,
core
contribute
prominent
evidence
steadily
growing
literature
wartime.
Язык: Английский
Monte Carlo Simulations for Resolving Verifiability Paradoxes in Forecast Risk Management and Corporate Treasury Applications
International Journal of Financial Studies,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
13(2), С. 49 - 49
Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025
Forecast
risk
management
is
central
to
the
financial
process.
This
study
aims
apply
Monte
Carlo
simulation
solve
three
classic
probabilistic
paradoxes
and
discuss
their
implementation
in
corporate
management.
The
article
presents
as
an
advanced
tool
for
processes.
method
allows
a
comprehensive
analysis
of
forecasts,
making
it
possible
assess
potential
errors
cash
flow
forecasts
predict
value
treasury
growth
under
various
future
scenarios.
In
investment
decision-making
process,
supports
evaluation
effectiveness
projects
by
calculating
expected
net
identifying
risks
associated
with
investments,
allowing
more
informed
decisions
be
made
project
implementation.
used
reducing
volatility,
which
contributes
lowering
cost
capital
increasing
company.
Simulation
also
enables
accurate
liquidity
planning,
including
forecasting
availability
determining
appropriate
reserves
based
on
probability
distributions.
credit
interest
rate
risk,
enabling
impact
economic
scenarios
company’s
obligations.
context
strategic
extension
decision
tree
analysis,
where
subsequent
are
results
earlier
ones.
Creating
models
simulations
makes
take
into
account
random
variables
key
indicators,
such
free
(FCF).
Compared
traditional
methods,
offers
detailed
precise
approach
decision-making,
providing
companies
vital
information
uncertainty.
emphasizes
that
use
not
only
enhances
management,
but
long-term
value.
entire
process
able
move
predicting
flows
discounted
at
capital.
We
both
numerical
analytical
methods
veridical
paradoxes.
Veridical
type
paradox
result
counterintuitive,
turns
out
true
after
careful
examination.
means
although
initial
reasoning
may
lead
wrong
conclusion,
correct
mathematical
or
logical
confirms
correctness
results.
An
example
Monty
Hall’s
problem,
intuitive
answer
suggests
equal
success,
while
shows
changing
increases
chances
winning.
method.
following
were
used:
conditional
probability,
Bayes’
rule
multiple
conditions.
solved
truth-type
discovered
why
Hall
problem
was
so
widely
discussed
1990s.
differentiated
problems
using
different
numbers
doors
prizes.
Язык: Английский
The Red Sea Conflict and Market Reactions: Examining the Role of Military Strength in Financial Markets
Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Апрель 15, 2025
Abstract
This
study
examines
market
reactions
to
the
US-Houthi
conflict
on
January
11,
2024,
across
various
markets,
regions,
and
industries
within
financial
sector,
emphasizing
role
of
military
strength
in
shaping
global
responses.
An
event
methodology
is
applied
a
sample
3,239
sector
companies,
observing
over
multiple
windows:
15-day
pre-event
phase
post-event
surrounding
announcement.
Cross-sectional
analysis
conducted
assess
how
impacts
reactions.
The
results
indicate
significant
vulnerability
conflict,
particularly
during
period
from
day
phase,
with
developed
markets
experiencing
greatest
impact.
While
American
showed
mixed
responses,
European,
Middle
Eastern,
African
faced
notable
negative
effects
due
disrupted
trade
routes;
Asian
also
reactions,
though
lesser
extent.
banking
industry
recorded
most
adverse
reaction
emerged
as
critical
factor
influencing
investor
behavior
response
conflict.
These
findings
highlight
need
for
policymakers
enhance
stability
by
considering
route
security
risk
mitigation
strategies,
times
geopolitical
uncertainty,
such
early
2024.
Язык: Английский