Foundations and Future Directions for Causal Inference in Ecological Research

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 28(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Ecology often seeks to answer causal questions, and while ecologists have a rich history of experimental approaches, novel observational data streams the need apply insights across naturally occurring conditions pose opportunities challenges. Other fields developed inference approaches that can enhance expand our ability ecological questions using or data. However, lack comprehensive resources applying settings jargon from multiple disciplines creates barriers. We introduce for inference, discussing main frameworks counterfactual how differs other research aims key challenges; application in quasi‐experimental study designs; appropriate interpretation results given their assumptions biases; foundational papers; requirements trade‐offs between internal external validity posed by different designs. highlight these designs generally prioritise over generalisability. Finally, we identify considerations further integrate with synthesis science meta‐analysis spatiotemporal scales at which is possible. advocate ecology as field collectively define best practices inference.

Язык: Английский

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The influence of elevation on genetic structure and variability in a wetland crucifer of the Rocky Mountains

American Journal of Botany, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 6, 2025

Abstract Premise In mountain ecosystems, environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation) covary with elevation, potentially limiting gene flow over steep gradients. We hypothesized that, (1) due to stark elevational differences in factors, populations from dissimilar elevations montane versus alpine) are more strongly differentiated than similar elevations; (2) patterns of migration reflect downslope dispersal upslope dispersal; and (3) alpine at the cold edge show evidence expansion, while warm have declined. Methods DNA polymorphisms whole‐genome sequences were studied 6–10 genotypes each Cardamine cordifolia found three sites (ranging 2200 2800 m a.s.l.) 3000 3500 a.s.l.). Statistical analyses assessed population structure, genetic diversity, migration, historical demography since Pleistocene. Results Populations maintained very high levels nucleotide diversity (π range: 0.062–0.071) weakly (pairwise F ST = 0.027) on average. Migration among was also inferred, no directionality across elevation bands. Demographic inference suggests that both declined size Conclusions Environmental represent diffuse barriers flow. Recent polyploidy clonal reproduction likely explain excess heterozygosity within populations. The similarity highly connected refugia during Pleistocene; such results may indicate will respond similarly changing associated climate change.

Язык: Английский

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Hybrid deep learning for climate prediction with temporal, spatial, and environmental data

International Journal of Information Technology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 27, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Temporal dynamics of Grime's CSR strategies in plant communities during 60 years of succession

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 27(6)

Опубликована: Май 30, 2024

Abstract Grime's competitive, stress‐tolerant, ruderal (CSR) theory predicts a shift in plant communities from to stress‐tolerant strategies during secondary succession. However, this fundamental tenet lacks empirical validation using long‐term continuous successional data. Utilizing 60‐year longitudinal data of old‐field succession, we investigated the community‐level dynamics over time. Our findings reveal that while generally transitioned initial abandonment conditions crucially shaped early strategies, leading varied strategy trajectories across different fields. Furthermore, found notable divergence CSR alien and native species Initially, exhibited similar but later stages, higher lower stress tolerance compared species. Overall, our underscore applicability predictions regarding temporal shifts depending on both community origin.

Язык: Английский

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Mixing of pine and arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species changed soil organic carbon storage by affecting soil microbial characteristics

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 930, С. 172630 - 172630

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Accounting for functionality in the identification of global conservation priorities: promises and pitfalls

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 380(1917)

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Whereas preventing species extinctions remains a central objective of conservation efforts, it must be complemented by the long-term preservation functional ecosystems and benefits humans derive from them. Here, I review recent approaches that explicitly account for functionality in setting large-scale priorities, discussing their promise while highlighting challenges pitfalls. Crossing data on species' distributions ecological traits has enabled mapping global patterns diversity rarity identification stand out distinctiveness. However, priorities identified through these general indices do not directly address ecosystem functionality, instead, they are methods ensuring representation individual as intrinsically valuable biodiversity elements. Three other integrate into taking specific context each ecosystem, site or species: International Union Conservation Nature's Red List Ecosystems, Key Biodiversity Areas Green Status Species. Currently at various stages development, testing implementation, playing an increasingly important role definition, implementation monitoring global- national-scale strategies to ensure persistence functions associated services.This article is part discussion meeting issue 'Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace's legacy biodiverse future'.

Язык: Английский

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Bacterial communities as bioindicators of climate change in freshwater ecosystems: Tank bromeliads as model systems

Ecological Indicators, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 171, С. 113161 - 113161

Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Core microbes regulate plant-soil resilience by maintaining network resilience during long-term restoration of alpine grasslands

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Temperature and biodiversity influence community stability differently in birds and fishes

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 8(10), С. 1835 - 1846

Опубликована: Авг. 7, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(24)

Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2024

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, predominant approach used quantify this threat, presumes that individuals populations respond variability and according species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such at cool edge a distribution should benefit warming (the “leading edge”), whereas warm suffer “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series aridland pine ( Pinus edulis ) collected 977 locations across distribution, we found trees everywhere grow less warmer-than-average drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates entire with warming—the is trailing edge. Species-level variation are opposite sign individual-scale time-varying for approximately half respect majority precipitation. These findings, added evidence literature scale-dependent hundreds species, suggest correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail accurately represent how will be impacted by changing climate. A view impact on biodiversity highlights transient risk extinction hidden inside evolution rescuing species whenever local exceeds tolerances.

Язык: Английский

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