Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan DOI Creative Commons
Sangay Dorji, Stephen B. Stewart, Asad Shabbir

и другие.

Plants, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1), С. 83 - 83

Опубликована: Дек. 30, 2024

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is one of the most noxious and fast-spreading invasive alien species, posing a major threat to ecosystems, agriculture, public health worldwide. Mechanistic correlative species distribution models are commonly employed determine potential habitat suitability parthenium weed. However, comparative analysis these two approaches for lacking, leaving gap in understanding their relative effectiveness ability describe This study compared mechanistic model CLIMEX with random forest (RF), best-performing suite models. When against occurrence records pseudo-absences, measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve, true skill statistic, sensitivity, specificity, results revealed higher performance RF CLIMEX. Globally, predicted 7 million km2 (2% total land mass) as suitable weed, while 20 (13%). Based on binary maps, identified 67 countries suitable, respectively. For Bhutan, globally trained 8919 (23% country’s 38,394 km2) currently high southern, west–central, central, eastern districts, particularly along highways. future, 10 general circulation downscaled Bhutan showed decrease across four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) three periods (2021–2050, 2051–2080, 2071–2100), northward shift habitats ranging from 2 76 km. Additionally, 2049 (23%) agricultural at risk being invaded Correlative based different niche concepts (i.e., realized fundamental, respectively), therefore combining them can provide better actual distributions. Given current climate its negative impacts early action such detection control infested areas, regular survey monitoring, creating awareness proposed mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

Forecasting species’ responses to climate change using space-for-time substitution DOI
Heather M. Kharouba, Jennifer L. Williams

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 39(8), С. 716 - 725

Опубликована: Май 14, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4
An Updated Environmental Resistance Model for Predicting the Spread of Invasive Species DOI Creative Commons
Yunpeng Liu,

John Kartesz,

Misako Nishino

и другие.

Journal of Biogeography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 24, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim Predictive models on invasive species spread can assist in identifying large‐scale invasion risk. Environmental resistance (ER) models, which predict based ecological similarity to already‐invaded communities, offer one approach. However, gaps remain understanding how different ER measurements perform across taxa and they be integrated with future global change. Here, we aim discern the primary drivers of by comparing then use best forecast dynamics. Location Eastern US. Taxa 1873 plants animals. Methods We developed measurements, including biotic similarities among native their phylogenetic assemblages, functional traits, abiotic climate, soil, human disturbances. obtained model for each evaluate potential extents; further predicted range shifts under climate Results Native plant provided proxy measure both Invasion hotspots were identified urban coastal areas, ranges current conditions extended from these neighboring areas. The most invasives was increase change, Arthropoda Tracheophyta generally expanding all taxa. that are expand have already occupied larger areas than whose contract. Main Conclusions These results highlight importance maintaining diverse communities control raise concern increased risk future. Our findings call more efforts monitoring near large cities, capacity early detection rapid response prevent spreading widely.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Climate‐Induced Range Shift and Risk Assessment of Emerging Weeds in Queensland, Australia DOI Creative Commons
Olusegun O. Osunkoya, Mohsen Ahmadi,

Christine Perrett

и другие.

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Anticipation and identification of new invasive alien species likely to establish, spread be impactful in a landscape, especially response climate change, are consistently top priority natural resource managers. Using available global bioclimatic variables limiting plant distributions, we employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) as correlative distribution model predict the current future (2041-2060 2061-2080) for 54 emerging weed different growth forms State Queensland, Australia. Overall, predictive performance was excellent, with area under curve (AUC) true skill statistic (TSS) averaging 0.90 0.67, respectively. Based on records, sorted out along environmental (climatic) space-with trees succulents, each at two ends continuum, while grasses, herbs shrubs were distributed between extremes. Temperature seasonality minimum temperature coldest month main driver that accounted differences climatic preference among focal and/or forms. Range shifts predicted many change; overall, habitat range increase will occur more often than contraction so compared all other stability least succulent weeds. In general, majority invasion hotspot projected remain geographically stable (76.95%). Far northern Queensland (especially Gulf Carpentaria Cape York Peninsula areas) coastal communities eastern seaboards hotspots establish expand/contract change. observed potential ranges, well derived an index risk hence statewide prioritisation watch list management policy weeds Queensland.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Geospatial Data and Google Street View Images for Monitoring Kudzu Vines in Small and Dispersed Areas DOI Creative Commons

Alba Closa-Tarres,

Fernando Rojano, Michael P. Strager

и другие.

Earth, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6(2), С. 40 - 40

Опубликована: Май 13, 2025

Comprehensive reviews of continuously vegetated areas to determine dispersed locations invasive species require intensive use computational resources. Furthermore, effective mechanisms aiding identification specific approaches relying on geospatial indicators and ancillary images. This study develops a two-stage data workflow for the Kudzu vine (Pueraria montana) often found in small along roadsides. The INHABIT database from United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided vines Google Street View (GSV) set Stage one built up images be implemented an object detection technique, You Only Look Once (YOLO v8s), training, validating, testing. two defined dataset confirmed which was followed retrieve GSV analyzed with YOLO v8s. effectiveness v8s model assessed identified georeferenced demonstrated that field observations can virtually conducted by integrating images; however, its potential is confined updated periodicity or similar services.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Environmental drivers and future distribution of invasive alien plant species in the Gaoligong Mountains, southwestern China DOI Creative Commons
Xiao Yu,

Xuecan Wu,

Hexiang Duan

и другие.

Plant Diversity, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Projecting global shifts in the invasive potential of Bidens pilosa L. under climate change using species distribution models DOI Creative Commons
Linran Fan,

Chunxiao Mi,

Jialu Li

и другие.

Frontiers in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16

Опубликована: Май 15, 2025

Invasive species pose significant threats to ecosystems by reducing biodiversity, introducing new diseases, and competing with native for resources. Bidens pilosa L., a globally invasive weed originating in tropical America, severely impacts agricultural productivity infesting 31 economically vital crops across over 40 countries. This study examined the global distribution of under current future climate scenarios. Using models occurrence data, we identified key factors influencing its spread, including temperature, precipitation, human influence. Our findings suggest likely decline suitable habitats regions an expansion into temperate regions, suitability decreasing higher temperatures. Additionally, historical reconstructions emphasize that rapid spread was facilitated maritime trade routes. Management strategies are proposed need enhanced control measures high-risk areas conservation efforts range America. Overall, this research contributes understanding dynamics B. informs proactive management mitigate ecological economic impacts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Identifying new invasive plants in the face of climate change: a focus on sleeper species DOI
Ayodele C. O’Uhuru, Toni Lyn Morelli, Annette E. Evans

и другие.

Biological Invasions, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 26(9), С. 2989 - 3001

Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
Prediction of the potential distribution area of Jacaranda mimosifolia in China under climate change using the MaxEnt model DOI Creative Commons
Xiaomei Li, Guowu Zhang, Chunping Xie

и другие.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7

Опубликована: Сен. 4, 2024

Introduction Jacaranda mimosifolia , native to South America, is a notable ornamental tree widely used in Chinese urban landscaping due its aesthetic and environmental value. Despite popularity, the cultivation of J. China faces challenges, including intermittent failures various regions. This study assesses potential distribution response climate change, providing insights for application promotion. Methods Using MaxEnt software, we developed an ecological niche model from 218 records selected 10 variables predict tree’s under scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370). Results Our demonstrates high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.90) across scenarios, identifying key factors such as mean temperature coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation driest month (bio14), annual range (bio7), minimum (bio6). Their relative contribution rates were 49.3%, 18.4%, 15.6%, 2.0%, respectively. The average was not lower than 5°C, with ideal being 7.38~14.88°C. Currently, predominantly thrives Taiwan, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, Yunnan, lesser extent Sichuan Basin, southern Guizhou, Tibet, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang province, covering total area approximately 122.19 × 4 km 2 . Future predictions indicate that SSP126 scenario, most significant contraction occurs between 2050s 2070s, change −1.08 Conversely, SSP370 greatest expansion observed 2030s 2050s, amounting 2.08 Suitable anticipated periods except SSP245 2070s. center shifts include movements northwestward, southwestward, eastward distances ranging 5.12 18.84 km. These are likely driven by global warming, resulting higher elevations latitudes. Discussion will provide solid theoretical foundation future serve valuable reference introduction cultivation.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Where have all the flowers gone? A systematic evaluation of factors driving native terrestrial plant decline in North America DOI Creative Commons
Ryan S. Prosser, Richard A. Brain

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 31(35), С. 48460 - 48483

Опубликована: Июль 20, 2024

Prior to the arrival of Europeans in North America, forest and grasslands individually covered a 3rd conterminous United States; however, following colonial pioneer periods, respectively, these land cover categories were reduced 70% 50% their original prominence. The dominant driving force for native conversion was agriculture, which expanded exponentially from Atlantic Pacific, comprising over half total area America at its peak 1950. However, farmland has subsequently declined by 25%, so what been plant declines north 30th latitudinal parallel past 75 years? Analysis recovery plans issued U.S. Fish Wildlife Service indicates that 900 species "listed" as threatened endangered primary driver decline invasive species, followed habitat alteration, development, collectively accounted 93.2% drivers listed species. In Canada, three 81% Comparatively, herbicides identified or secondary 13 out 1124 cases (1.2%). Given agricultural is contracting there appears be misconception agrochemicals are seminal cause decline. Here, we explore individual contribution relative historical events provide context perspective well focus prioritize conservation efforts accordingly.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Shrinking horizons: Climate-induced range shifts and conservation status of hickory trees (Carya Nutt.) DOI Creative Commons

Winnie W. Mambo,

Guang‐Fu Zhu,

Richard I. Milne

и другие.

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 102910 - 102910

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1