Lessons to be learned by comparing integrated fisheries stock assessment models (SAMs) with integrated population models (IPMs)

Fisheries Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 272, С. 106925 - 106925

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2024

Integrated fisheries stock assessment models (SAMs) and integrated population (IPMs) are used in biological ecological systems to estimate abundance demographic rates. The approaches fundamentally very similar, but historically have been considered as separate endeavors, resulting a loss of shared vision, practice progress. We review the two identify similarities differences, with view identifying key lessons that would benefit more generally overarching topic ecology. present case study for each SAM (snapper from west coast New Zealand) IPM (woodchat shrikes Germany) highlight differences similarities. between SAMs IPMs appear be objectives parameter estimates required meet these objectives, size spatial scale populations, differing availability various types data. In addition, up now, typical applied aquatic habitats, while most stem terrestrial habitats. aim assess level sustainable exploitation fish so absolute or biomass must estimated, although some only relative trends. Relative is often sufficient understand dynamics inform conservation actions, which main objective IPMs. small populations concern, where uncertainty can important, conveniently implemented using Bayesian approaches. typically at moderate scales (1 104 km2), possibility collecting detailed longitudinal individual data, whereas large, economically valuable stocks large (104 106 km2) limited There sense data- (or information-) hungry than an because its goal abundance, data rates difficult obtain (often marine) applied. therefore require 'tuning' assumptions IPMs, 'data speak themselves', consequently techniques such weighting model evaluation nuanced being fit disaggregated quantify variation allow richer inference on processes. attempts example by unconditional capture-recapture

Язык: Английский

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Climate Dipoles as Continental Drivers of Plant and Animal Populations

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 35(5), С. 440 - 453

Опубликована: Март 9, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: a case study using federal land acquisition in the United States

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 95(4), С. 1109 - 1130

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2020

ABSTRACT In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non‐governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects climate change are not considered in decisions. Unfortunately, on ecological systems complex plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult prioritize research needs improve decision‐making. Herein, we demonstrate use qualitative value information analysis identify which sources uncertainty should reduced decisions migratory birds face change. process involves four steps: ( i ) articulating alternative hypotheses; ii determining magnitude regarding each hypothesis; iii evaluating relevance hypothesis decision‐making; iv assessing feasibility reducing surrounding through monitoring. We this approach using 3 U.S. federal that focus bird management. used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, professional judgement evaluate 11 hypotheses about effect birds. Based our results, provide list priorities monitoring reduce case study. Reducing how will influence spatial distribution species biotic homogenization were identified as highest due both improving Research changes precipitation patterns winter severity abundance is also expected benefit By contrast, phenology migration distance low research. providing rigorous transparent prioritizing research, valuable tool other complex, high‐uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative possible. Given inherent complexity under change, difficulty identifying management‐relevant priorities, expect wide applications within field natural resource

Язык: Английский

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Local population collapse of Ross's and lesser snow geese driven by failing recruitment and diminished philopatry

Oikos, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 2022(5)

Опубликована: Март 3, 2022

Dynamics of free‐ranging animal populations can result from complex interplays survival, recruitment and movement. Yet incomplete understanding demography impedes conservation strategies intended to modify population dynamics focal species. We estimated survival per capita production young, as well emigration immigration, 1997 2017 in Ross's goose Anser rossii lesser snow caerulescens , which are sympatric species migratory birds that nest the central Canadian Arctic at one largest breeding colonies North America. formed age‐structured integrated models (IPMs) for each jointly analyzed live dead encounter data adult size fecundity understand drivers dynamics. compared between because both increased during 1990s early 2000s yet thereafter geese declined, while continued increase, then stabilized similarly declined. Declines were caused by reduced juvenile emigration. Stronger declines explain their earlier decline geese. Despite divergence trends geese, we found strong synchrony demographic rates suggested substantial this colony similar responses environmental conditions. Direct estimation patterns IPM framework permitted hypothesis testing inference about role even though immigrant sources unsampled. provide a novel m‐array implementation specific multi‐state Burnham model greatly improved computational efficiency convergence posterior estimates. Our findings an important reminder permanent movements play metapopulation structure.

Язык: Английский

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Explaining declines of newt abundance in northern Italy

Freshwater Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 67(7), С. 1174 - 1187

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2022

Abstract Amphibians are an exemplary case of the current biodiversity crisis, being among vertebrates suffering fastest decline. Population dynamics amphibians can result from processes acting at different scales. Both local characteristics breeding wetlands and features surrounding landscape strongly affect temporal amphibian populations. European newts particularly threatened by land‐use change invasive alien species. While it is known that declining across Europe, few studies have performed broad‐scale assessments their decline, either because abundance more complex to analyse than presence/absence data or they require a high sampling effort long‐term monitoring. In this study, we show distribution be combined with demographic models quantify decline in newt species regional scale, assess importance multiple factors determining dynamics. We surveys between 1996 2020 used N ‐mixture Bayesian framework. then calculated changes first last season, which were average timespan 13 years all wetlands. Italian crested smooth showed large declines, estimated loss season 57% 63%, respectively. Local main determinants dynamics: both positive relationship area permanence wetland negative presence fish. Additionally, was negatively related crayfish. No detected terrestrial habitat availability connectivity measures. Despite uncertainties absolute values abundance, striking regional‐scale evident. Among major population dynamics, fish crayfish increased prevalence study area, while other remained stable. Management actions aimed eradicating controlling might halt even revert trend. The application N‐ mixture representative sites permits analysis trends scale when come monitoring schemes. found declines two species, suggesting may previously thought.

Язык: Английский

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Monitoring boreal avian populations: how can we estimate trends and trajectories from noisy data?

Avian Conservation and Ecology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 14(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2019

Roy, C., N. L. Michel, C. M. Handel, S. Van Wilgenburg, J. Burkhalter, K. E. B. Gurney, D. Messmer, Princé, Rushing, F. Saracco, R. Schuster, A. Smith, P. Sólymos, Venier, and Zuckerberg. 2019. Monitoring boreal avian populations: how can we estimate trends trajectories from noisy data?. Avian Conservation Ecology 14(2):8. https://doi.org/10.5751/ACE-01397-140208

Язык: Английский

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Using integrated population models to prioritize region-specific conservation strategies under global change

Biological Conservation, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 252, С. 108832 - 108832

Опубликована: Ноя. 5, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Accounting for sources of uncertainty when forecasting population responses to climate change

Journal of Animal Ecology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 90(3), С. 558 - 561

Опубликована: Март 1, 2021

Abstract In Focus: Jaatinen, K., Westerbom, M., Norkko, A., Mustonen, O., & Koons, D. N. (2021). Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density‐dependent population regulation in blue mussels. Journal Animal Ecology , 90 562–573, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365‐2656.13377 . Conservation strategies for threatened species are increasingly dependent on forecasts responses to change. For such accurate, they must account multiple sources uncertainty, including those associated with projections future scenarios and the models used describe dynamics. While many incorporate parameter uncertainty abiotic effects process variance related unexplained temporal variation, most overlook importance evaluating structure model itself. By accounting structural uncertainties a growth mussels, Jaatinen et al. (2021) demonstrated that processes likely exacerbate adverse reduce viability this keystone species. These findings highlight incorporating unknowns value approaches uncertainties. Forecasts capture range possible trajectories under will help ensure efficient allocation limited conservation resources.

Язык: Английский

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Explaining the divergence of population trajectories for two interacting waterfowl species

Ecological Monographs, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 95(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 12, 2025

Abstract Identifying the specific environmental features and associated density‐dependent processes that limit population growth is central to both ecology conservation. Comparative assessments of sympatric species allow for inference about how ecologically similar differentially respond their shared environment, which can be used inform community‐level conservation strategies. nevertheless complicated by interactions feedback loops among in question. We developed an integrated model based on 61 years ecological data describing demographic histories Canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) Redheads americana ), two migratory diving ducks utilize breeding habitats affect each other's demography through interspecific nest parasitism. combined this with a transient life table response experiment determine extent rates, contributions growth, were between these species. found rates and, lesser extent, covaried Redheads, but trajectories abundances widely diverged during end twentieth century due inherent differences sensitivities variation harvest pressure. annual survival increased restrictive regulations; however, recent pressure female may contributing declines. Despite periodic, often dramatic, increases abundance wet years, number declined 13% whereas has 37% since 1961. Reductions improvements submerged aquatic vegetation throughout wintering grounds have mediated populations contracted dry Prairie Pothole Region. However, continued degradation climate‐related shifts wetland hydrology agricultural conversion surrounding grassland exceeded capacity compensation nonbreeding season.

Язык: Английский

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To change not to drown: Eurasian Oystercatchers <i>Haematopus ostralegus</i> adopt pole tops as safe nesting sites in the Lagoon of Venice

Опубликована: Март 6, 2025

Eurasian Oystercatchers have increasingly adopted pole tops in the last decade Lagoon of Venice (NE Italy). At end study, 7% breeding population (n = 180) nested on tops. Nests built these structures are safe from flooding due to extremely high tides, thus allowing a hatching success: 42 clutches out 43 (97.7%) hatched. We hypothesise that this is an adaptive behaviour increased frequency extreme tides and good omen for species. The availability suitable nesting allows areas otherwise unsuitable lack sites flooding. Placement artificial nests also feasible could be easy cheap strategy conservation as spring storms will likely increase future.

Язык: Английский

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