The global distribution of plants used by humans

Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 383(6680), С. 293 - 297

Опубликована: Янв. 18, 2024

Plants sustain human life. Understanding geographic patterns of the diversity species used by people is thus essential for sustainable management plant resources. Here, we investigate global distribution 35,687 utilized spanning 10 use categories (e.g., food, medicine, material). Our findings indicate general concordance between and total diversity, supporting potential simultaneously conserving its contributions to people. Although Indigenous lands across Mesoamerica, Horn Africa, Southern Asia harbor a disproportionate plants, incidence protected areas negatively correlated with richness. Finding mechanisms preserve containing concentrations plants traditional knowledge must become priority implementation Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Язык: Английский

---

Top ten hazards to avoid when modeling species distributions: a didactic guide of assumptions, problems, and recommendations

Ecography, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2024(4)

Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024

Species distribution models, also known as ecological niche models or habitat suitability have become commonplace for addressing fundamental and applied biodiversity questions. Although the field has progressed rapidly regarding theory implementation, key assumptions are still frequently violated recommendations inadvertently overlooked. This leads to poor being published used in real‐world applications. In a structured, didactic treatment, we summarize what our view constitute ten most problematic issues, hazards, negatively affecting implementation of correlative approaches species modeling (specifically those that model by comparing environments species' occurrence records with background pseudoabsence sample). For each hazard, state relevant assumptions, detail problems arise when violating them, convey straightforward existing recommendations. We discuss five major outstanding questions active current research. hope this contribution will promote more rigorous these valuable stimulate further advancements.

Язык: Английский

---

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Март 12, 2024

Abstract Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely safeguard most of world’s coral reefs. This prognosis primarily based a small subset available models apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review 79 articles projecting reef responses climate revealed five main methods. ‘Excess constituted one third (32%) all studies but attracted disproportionate share (68%) citations in field. Most methods relied deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding field’s ability estimate uncertainty. To synthesize projections, we aimed identify with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices model outputs and scenarios limited analysis fraction studies. We found substantial discrepancies projected impacts, indicating serving basis for syntheses may project more severe consequences other Drawing insights from fields, propose incorporate uncertainty into modeling approaches multi-model ensemble approach generating projections futures.

Язык: Английский

---

Calibration areas in ecological niche and species distribution modelling: Unravelling approaches and concepts

Journal of Biogeography, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(8), С. 1416 - 1428

Опубликована: Март 16, 2024

Abstract Aim The calibration area (CA) corresponds to the geographic region used by different algorithms that estimate species' environmental preferences and delimit its distribution. This study intended identify, test compare current literature's most commonly employed approaches methods for CA creation, highlighting differences with accessible (M), a frequently misapplied concept. Location Global. Taxon Arthropods, amphibians, reptiles, birds mammals. Methods We conducted literature review analysed 129 recent articles on species distribution use correlative models identify establish their frequency. also evaluated seven of widely 31 from taxa. Results found in corresponded biogeographic entities (BE). Moreover, according our evaluation, those seek through approach (including BE ‘grinnell’) were best evaluated. Finally, we highlight advantages disadvantages selecting CA. Main Conclusions Although cannot fail recognize usefulness validity CAs, suggest calibrating ecological niche light explicit priori hypotheses regarding extent areas (M) as delimitation CA, which theoretically includes dispersal ability barriers. recommend using method, is simple highly operational.

Язык: Английский

---

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 7(15)

Опубликована: Апрель 7, 2021

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range classified them based on three criteria. ask whether observed distributional compared against random expectations, multicausal factors examined equal footing, studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. found that only ~12.1% compare across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish patterns from ~19.66% examine factors. Last, ~75.5% report results allow show despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards within climate-change induced distribution. Accurate reporting important because policy responses depend them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism divert scarce resources biodiversity competing priorities.

Язык: Английский

---

Estimating the Abundance of Marine Mammal Populations

Frontiers in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 8

Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2021

Motivated by the need to estimate abundance of marine mammal populations inform conservation assessments, especially relating fishery bycatch, this paper provides background on estimation and reviews various methods available for pinnipeds, cetaceans sirenians. We first give an “entry-level” introduction estimation, including fundamental concepts importance recognizing sources bias obtaining a measure precision. Each primary mammals is then described, data collection analysis, common challenges in implementation, assumptions made, violation which can lead bias. The main method estimating pinniped extrapolation counts animals (pups or all-ages) land ice whole population. Cetacean sirenian primarily estimated from transect surveys conducted ships, small boats aircraft. If individuals species be recognized natural markings, mark-recapture analysis photo-identification used number using study area. Throughout, we cite example studies that illustrate described. To population, key issues include: defining population estimated, considering candidate based strengths weaknesses relation range logistical practical issues, being aware resources required collect analyze data, understanding made. conclude with discussion some given arise during implementation.

Язык: Английский

---

Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 14, 2021

Abstract Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered typicities that depend local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the suitability five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model three machine learning algorithms predict current future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) for each under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show importance variables determining combined is different from those despite climatic factors remaining more important than variables. Our predicts 27% country generally suitable coffee, area, only up 30% coffees. The modelling showed projects net gain production general but losses out six modelled growing areas. conclude depending drivers projected impacts, will significantly affect Ethiopian speciality sector area-specific adaptation measures are required build resilience.

Язык: Английский

---

Spatially explicit models for decision‐making in animal conservation and restoration

Ecography, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2022(4)

Опубликована: Окт. 8, 2021

Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns processes. Under ongoing climate biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision‐making in conservation restoration help designing adequate management strategies an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models decision support to identify key gaps current modelling restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear application were included our quantitative analyses. Overall, studies biased towards static (79%), species population level (80%) (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche most widely used model type. Dynamic as well gene‐to‐individual community‐to‐ecosystem underrepresented, cost optimisation approaches only 10% studies. We present new typology selecting animal restoration, characterising types according organisational levels, biological processes interest desired applications. This will more closely link goals. Additionally, future efforts need overcome important challenges related data integration, integration decision‐making. conclude with five recommendations, suggesting that wider usage be achieved by 1) developing toolbox multiple, easier‐to‐use methods, 2) improving calibration validation dynamic 3) best‐practise guidelines applying these models. Further, robust 4) combining multiple assess uncertainty, 5) placing at core adaptive management. These must accompanied long‐term funding monitoring, improved communication between research practise ensure optimal outcomes.

Язык: Английский

---

Vegetation structure derived from airborne laser scanning to assess species distribution and habitat suitability: The way forward

Diversity and Distributions, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 29(1), С. 39 - 50

Опубликована: Окт. 30, 2022

Abstract Ecosystem structure, especially vertical vegetation is one of the six essential biodiversity variable classes and an important aspect habitat heterogeneity, affecting species distributions diversity by providing shelter, foraging, nesting sites. Point clouds from airborne laser scanning (ALS) can be used to derive such detailed information on structure. However, public agencies usually only provide digital elevation models, which do not Calculating structure variables ALS point requires extensive data processing remote sensing skills that most ecologists have. extremely valuable for many analyses use distribution. We here propose 10 should easily accessible researchers stakeholders through national portals. In addition, we argue a consistent selection their systematic testing, would allow continuous improvement list keep it up‐to‐date with latest evidence. This initiative particularly needed advance ecological research open datasets but also guide potential users in face increasing availability global products.

Язык: Английский

---

Forest tree species distribution for Europe 2000–2020: mapping potential and realized distributions using spatiotemporal machine learning

PeerJ, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 10, С. e13728 - e13728

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2022

This article describes a data-driven framework based on spatiotemporal machine learning to produce distribution maps for 16 tree species ( Abies alba Mill., Castanea sativa Corylus avellana L., Fagus sylvatica Olea europaea Picea abies L. H. Karst., Pinus halepensis nigra J. F. Arnold, pinea sylvestris Prunus avium Quercus cerris ilex robur suber and Salix caprea L.) at high spatial resolution (30 m). Tree occurrence data total of three million points was used train different algorithms: random forest, gradient-boosted trees, generalized linear models, k-nearest neighbors, CART an artificial neural network. A stack 305 coarse covariates representing spectral reflectance, biophysical conditions biotic competition as predictors realized distributions, while potential modelled with environmental only. Logloss computing time were select the best algorithms tune ensemble model stacking logistic regressor meta-learner. An trained each species: probability uncertainty produced using window 4 years six per species, distributions only one map produced. Results cross validation show that consistently outperformed or performed good individual in both tasks, models achieving higher predictive performances (TSS = 0.898, R 2 logloss 0.857) than ones average 0.874, 0.839). Ensemble Q. achieved 0.968, 0.952) 0.959, 0.949) distribution, P. 0.731, 0.785, 0.585, 0.670, respectively, distribution) 0.658, 0.686, 0.623, 0.664) worst. Importance predictor variables differed across green band summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) fall diffuse irradiation precipitation driest quarter (BIO17) being most frequent important distribution. On average, fine-resolution (250 m) +6.5%, +7.5%). The shows how combining continuous consistent Earth Observation series state art can be derive dynamic maps. predictions quantify temporal trends forest degradation composition change.

Язык: Английский

---