Spatial resolution impacts projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands

Diversity and Distributions, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 29(10), С. 1245 - 1262

Опубликована: Июль 27, 2023

Abstract Aim Understanding how grain size affects our ability to characterize species responses ongoing climate change is of crucial importance in the context an increasing awareness for substantial difference that exists between coarse spatial resolution macroclimatic data sets and microclimate actually experienced by organisms. Climate impacts on biodiversity are expected peak mountain areas, wherein differences macro microclimates precisely largest. Based a newly generated fine‐scale environmental Canary Islands, we assessed whether at 100 m able provide more accurate predictions than available 1 km resolution. We also analysed future suitability island endemic bryophytes differ depending grids. Location Islands. Time period Present (1979–2013) late‐century (2071–2100). Taxa Bryophytes. Methods compared accuracy using ensemble small models 14 Macaronesian bryophyte species. used two sets: CHELSA v1.2 (~1 km) CanaryClim v1.0 (100 m), downscaled version latter utilizing from local weather stations. encompasses five individual model intercomparison projects three warming shared socio‐economic pathways. Results Species distribution exhibited similar accuracy, but predicted buffered trends mid‐elevation ridges. consistently returned higher proportions suitable pixels (8%–28%) (0%–3%). Consequently, proportion occupy uncertain was with (3–8 species) (0–2 species). Main conclusions The impacted rather performance models. Our results highlight role fine‐resolution can play predicting potential both microrefugia new range under climate.

Язык: Английский

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TreeGOER: A database with globally observed environmental ranges for 48,129 tree species

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 29(22), С. 6303 - 6318

Опубликована: Авг. 21, 2023

The TreeGOER (Tree Globally Observed Environmental Ranges) database provides information for most known tree species of their environmental ranges 38 bioclimatic, eight soil and three topographic variables. It is based on distribution modelling analyses more than 44 million occurrences. can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7922927. Statistics that include 5% 95% quantiles were estimated a cleaned taxonomically standardized occurrence data set with different methods outlier detection, estimates roughly 45% being 20 or observation records. Where sufficient representative observations are available, the provide useful preliminary suitable conditions particularly lesser-known under climate change. Inferred core bioclimatic along global temperature moisture index gradients across continents follow diversity such as its highest levels in moist tropical forests 'odd man out' pattern lower Africa. To demonstrate how large numbers easily done R TreeGOER, here I present two case studies. first study investigated latitudinal trends vulnerability compared these previous results obtained urban trees. second focused areas, longitudinal zones patterns index. expected to benefit researchers conducting biogeographical change research wide range at variety spatial temporal scales.

Язык: Английский

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The rarity of Invertebrates prevents reliable application of IUCN Red-List criteria.

Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2024

Among the most widely used information underpinning international conservation efforts is IUCN Red List of endangered species. The designates species extinction risk based on geographic range, population size, or declines in either. However, Red-List has poor representation invertebrates which comprise majority animal diversity, and it frequently been questioned whether criteria are appropriate for these organisms. Due to their small difficulty identification, general rarity, many hard study, making difficult apply. Here we discuss criticisms context empirical evidence from one largest terrestrial arthropod surveys date, documenting abundance distribution over 13,000 Sweden. Using simple examples data, argue that even ambitious monitoring unlikely produce enough observations reliably estimate sizes ranges more than a fraction Thus, there likely be substantial uncertainty classifying according current criteria. In response, introduction potential new accurately capture needs invertebrates, increase List.

Язык: Английский

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Predicting the responses of European grassland communities to climate and land cover change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 379(1902)

Опубликована: Апрель 7, 2024

European grasslands are among the most species-rich ecosystems on small spatial scales. However, human-induced activities like land use and climate change pose significant threats to this diversity. To explore how cover will affect biodiversity community composition in grassland ecosystems, we conducted joint species distribution models (SDMs) extensive vegetation-plot database sPlotOpen project distributions of 1178 across Europe under current conditions three future scenarios. We further compared model accuracy computational efficiency between SDMs (JSDMs) stacked SDMs, especially for rare species. Our results show that: (i) communities mountain ranges expected suffer high rates loss, while those western, northern eastern experience substantial turnover; (ii) scaling anomalies were observed predicted richness, reflecting regional differences dominant drivers assembly processes; (iii) JSDMs did not outperform predictive power but demonstrated superior fitting predicting; (iv) incorporating co-occurrence datasets improved performance predicting This article is part theme issue ‘Ecological novelty planetary stewardship: dynamics a transforming biosphere’.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling reveals the effect of climate and land use change on Madagascar’s chameleons fauna

Communications Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Июль 21, 2024

Abstract The global biodiversity crisis is generated by the combined effects of human-induced climate change and land conversion. Madagascar one World’s most renewed hotspots biodiversity. Yet, its rich variety plant animal species threatened deforestation change. Predicting future Madagascar’s chameleons, in particular, complicated their ecological rarity, making it hard to tell which factor menacing survival. By applying an extension ENphylo distribution model algorithm work with extremely rare species, we find that chameleons will face intense loss north-western sector island. Land conversion humans drive loss, intersect a complex, nonlinear manner We some 30% may lose nearly all habitats, critically jeopardizing chance for

Язык: Английский

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Prioritizing conservation of threatened raptor species using synergistic distribution modeling of high potential areas in foothills of Eastern Himalayas, India

Avian Biology Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 28, 2025

Species Distribution Models are widely used to predict single and multiple species distribution based on different environmental parameters concerned. Such a framework often ignores overlapping of associated the same taxon or genus which may lead high-cost conservation for concerned authority. Cost effective management can be practiced by prioritizing areas high suitability, shared one more related species. Here, we proposed concept probable area at least two i.e. Synergistic potential in Assam. Analysis synergistic map showed that average combined all is 3140 km 2 , accounts 1367.63 ( Falco severus + Gyps tenuirostris = 1446.19 Haliaeetus leucoryphys 1404.75 leucoryphus 1251.95 ). We found highly suitable raptors Assam were mostly concentrated Manas Tiger Reserve landscape, Kaziranga-Karbi Anglong landscape Upper Brahmaputra valley. This would definitely help identify prioritize cost efforts.

Язык: Английский

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Identifying Ecological Corridors of the Bush Cricket Saga pedo in Fragmented Landscapes

Insects, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(3), С. 279 - 279

Опубликована: Март 6, 2025

The bush cricket Saga pedo, listed as Vulnerable globally by the IUCN and included in Annex IV of EU Habitats Directive, is a parthenogenetic species highly sensitive to environmental changes, facing threats from forest expansion agricultural intensification. S. pedo prefers dry, open habitats with sparse vegetation, its pronounced thermo-heliophily makes it an indicator xerothermic habitats. In many areas Italy, including Northern Apennines (Piedmont), semi-natural grasslands are fragmented. Open have been reduced small, isolated patches surrounded forests due abandonment agropastoral activities. Consequently, occurrence habitat related quality availability suitable ecological connectivity. We developed spatial Bayesian framework identify for pedo. Using inverse probability occurrence, we derived corridors among patches. Our findings indicate that connectivity intensive cultivation but favored 10-50% woody tree cover, suggesting sustainable land management crucial supporting species. Given extinction risk faces, urge local administrations maintain improve guarantee network identified.

Язык: Английский

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Forecasting species’ responses to climate change using space-for-time substitution

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 39(8), С. 716 - 725

Опубликована: Май 14, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Human-brown bear conflicts in Türkiye are driven by increased human presence around protected areas

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 81, С. 102643 - 102643

Опубликована: Май 17, 2024

Human-wildlife conflict has become a major challenge to conservation efforts around the world. Brown bears (Ursus arctos), which globally suffer from reduced habitat suitability and quality, frequently with humans. These animals need large home ranges fulfil their requirements. When space food are restricted, brown shift towards human-dominated landscapes that offer reliable sources. Türkiye, country predominantly landscapes, experiences frequent human-brown bear conflicts (HBCs). However, there been no formal analysis of nature scope these at level. Using HBC data 2017 2022, we analyzed spatial temporal dynamics events in Turkey, constructing risk map based on anthropogenic variables geographic profiling identify driving forces. did not show any annual or seasonal trends but displayed considerable variation across biogeographic regions, highest incidence concentrated along Black Sea coast Eastern Anatolia. Sixty percent all were due foraging behavior near human settlements while 12 % result activity forests, 57% resulting direct injury either humans bears. Our analyses showed proximity villages, protected areas, farmland, footprint be pivotal factors influencing risk. Approximately 21% country's territory is susceptible human-bear conflicts, substantial portion (43%) risks manifesting within 10-km radius areas. In conclusion, our findings suggest high occurrence HBCs Türkiye primarily stems limited availability natural habitats resources for bears, compounded by increased encroachment core habitats.

Язык: Английский

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A Dark Future of Endangered Mountain Species, Parnassius bremeri, Under Climate Change

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate and land‐use changes are key factors in the habitat loss population declines of climate change‐sensitive endangered species. We assessed change effects on distribution Parnassius bremeri , a critically wildlife species Republic Korea, association with food availability ( Sedum kamtschaticum aizoon ), change, dispersal limitation. first predicted current future distributions P. S. using presence/absence data (2000) (2050, 2100) BioMod2, an ensemble platform for model projections. Then, capacity P . were coupled SDMs MigClim. used according to SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0) estimated from previous studies. The distributional areas be about 10,956 km 2 without land‐cover coupling 8.861 coupling, showing decreased by 19% suitable habitat. predictions under only showed reduced 56% 50% 2050 2100 SSP1‐2.6, respectively, 55% 48% 44% 14% SSP3‐7.0. Applying further but trivially (about 0.42% average). strict conservation policies measures 's habitats explain trivial additional decrease, delaying its loss. However, our results suggest that such efforts cannot halt change‐driven trend Strong mitigation promoting species' adaptive ways reverse tragic decline climate‐sensitive

Язык: Английский

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