Lagged climate‐driven range shifts at species' leading, but not trailing, range edges revealed by multispecies seed addition experiment

Ecography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 14, 2025

Climate change is causing many species' ranges to shift upslope higher elevations as species track their climatic requirements. However, have not shifted in pace with recent warming (i.e. ‘range stasis'), possibly due demographic lags or microclimatic buffering. The ‘lagged‐response hypothesis' posits that range stasis disguises an underlying sensitivity if shifts lag the velocity of climate slow colonization credits) mortality extinction debt). Alternatively, ‘microclimatic buffering proposes small‐scale variation within landscape, such canopy cover, creates patches suitable habitat otherwise unsuitable macroclimates create refugia and buffer contractions. We simultaneously test both hypotheses by combining a large seed addition experiment 25 plant across macro‐ micro‐scale gradients adult occurrence records compare patterns seedling recruitment relative microclimate North Cascades, USA. Despite high species‐to‐species variability recruitment, community‐level monitored for five years supported lagged response hypothesis, mismatch between where seedlings recruit versus adults occur. On average, optimum from centre historically cooler, wetter regions recruited beyond cold (e.g. leading) edge. Meanwhile, successful occurred at warm dry edges, despite change, suggesting macroclimatic effects on do drive trailing dynamics. did detect evidence cover patterns. Combined, our results suggest apparent system cool ends ranges, expansions likely occur slowly punctuated fashion.

Язык: Английский

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Does habitat or climate change drive species range shifts?

Ecography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 17, 2025

A primary prediction of climate change ecology is that species will track their niche poleward and upslope. However, studies have shown responding in surprising ways. In this study, we aim to understand the impact global on ranges by considering both habitat changes. Using occupancy analysis acoustic survey data mountains northeastern United States, tested specific predictions range responses warming (shifting upslope), precipitation downslope), forest composition downslope). We found American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus , key nodes northern North food webs, are not tracking increasing temperatures upslope, despite substantial recent decades. Structural equation modeling indicates squirrel abundance primarily influenced red‐spruce cover, which has shifted downslope with recovery from historical logging acid deposition. Accounting for multiple dimensions enable better more effective conservation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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The ecology of plant extinctions

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Дек. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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