Emerging horizons in predictive biogeography

Ecography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2025

The notion that different branches of biological sciences – including ecology, macroecology, and biogeography should adopt a predictive focus rather than merely aiming to describe understand the natural world has gained traction over past decades (Peters 1991, Shrader-Frechette McCoy 1993). This trend been enabled both by technological advancement leading new frameworks, pressing societal demands anticipate mitigate effects global change on biodiversity associated ecosystem services. An early example this is work Sánchez-Cordero et al. (2004) who contributed chapter for conservation applications in seminal volume (Lomolino Heaney 2004). While authors did not explicitly define term biogeography, their discussion emphasized how developments statistical ecology mapping had allowed description species distributions at large spatial scales. Similarly, Thuiller (2006) employed concept restricted context describing use stacked distribution models (SDMs) predicting plant richness South Africa. Dawson (2011) subsequently highlighted SDMs as most widely used method but also called attention importance establishing broader frameworks changes biodiversity, from ecosystems, response climate change. There are other biogeographic patterns context. Most notably, area relationships (SARs), which have important predict extinctions (Drakare 2006) driven anthropogenic habitat fragmentation example. However, widespread SDMs, along with fact they remain choice scales repeatedly (Bellard 2012, Araújo 2019, Zurell 2020, Soley-Guardia 2024). Mapping remains an essential component large-scale planning (Margules 2002). It critical only delineating statuses, trends, management strategies regional scales, interpreting geological, historical, causes consequences (Whittaker 2005). Therefore, modelling will probably biogeography. many studies emphasize need move beyond individual encompass range spatio-temporal issues interface between society, such services, human health agricultural systems. expanded scope inevitably calls wider definition In special issue, we aim broaden application moving confines spotlight cutting edge research across dimensions field. deliberate opposed or reflects our intent include more diverse array approaches statistical, evolutionary, contribute understanding forecasting distribution, abundance, diversity broad and/or temporal includes systems productive (e.g. agroecosystems). We propose subdiscipline uses known ecological evolutionary processes diversity, whether it be species, intra-, inter-specific levels, biotic interactions relationship environment, Over two decades, field experienced exponential growth, increasing availability digital data genetic variability within them, well proliferation spatially explicit environmental layers increasingly fine resolutions. rapid evolution catalysed development syntheses theories, alongside advancements methodologies computational capabilities. As result, undergoing transformation primarily descriptive discipline championed likes Alexander von Humboldt (1769–1859), Augustin Pyramus de Candolle (1778–1841), Alfred Russel Wallace (1823–1913), Philip Lutley Sclater (1829–1913), amongst others, science, capable informing fundamental practical conservation, resource management, beyond. emergence demand (Dietze 2018, Enquist growing challenges decline rising food demands, far-reaching impacts recent pandemics paired ongoing threaten security, public health, made ability these existential priority humanity. time, expanded. Initially, 1990s, its centred largely past, present, future biodiversity. Today, evolved address directly linked societies, production (Enquist relevance positioned underpinning wide fields (Araújo Peterson 2012). These biology 2011, Fordham 2013), agriculture (Meynard 2017, Gerber 2024, Soubeyrand 2024), forestry (Zhang 2022, Rosa fisheries (Cheung 2010, Boavida-Portugal 2018), epidemiology (Aliaga-Samanez Mestre paleobiology (Metcalf 2014, 2022), reflecting versatility addressing contemporary issues. advances all areas biology, computer science translated into vast high-resolution information geographic areas, landscapes, countries, continents, even globally. Technological molecular sequencing, make monitoring, microscopic life, possible (Beng Corlett 2020). DNA recovery efforts can go so far sequence ancient samples, allowing exploration old specimens stored museum collections (Raxworthy Smith 2021), recovering trophic through samples (Pereira 2023). Sequencing, analytical theoretical advances, makes integrate history, rates diversification (Morlon Kergoat 2018) predictions Remote sensing follow land (Cavender-Bares integrating chemical properties phylogenetic functional 2020), microclimate resolutions (Lembrechts 2020) among promising allow fine-grain mechanisms models. Statistical methods computing (Record 2023), technology allows sharing globally, curated occurrence, trait, phylogenetic, any type datasets. just few expanding extent fine-resolution gathered. When combined, applied, greatly advance future. Within bounds, identify least three components framework (Fig. 1): data, must fall domain biogeography; one scenarios establish relevant predictions; formal model theory translates current biodiversity–environment considered. Note often pertain land-use scenarios), scenarios, extinction strategies, behaviour, driving predictions. Importantly, view dynamic static. Advances scenario lead updates models, turn, outputs requirements guide collection refinement creating positive feedback loop 2018). Conceptual summary framework. Every effort ingredients (a) theories models; (b) shows several indicators measures, feeding each ways. Although usually combination occurrence (SDM) predictions), depend sought; very related change, evolution, resilience, extinction, kind changes. Finally, set combining needed, although main desired scope. compared, validated, measured against real patterns. A panoply higher spatial, temporal, taxonomic resolution, facets genetics, phenotypic, functional, phenological) key larger Examples shown (c), no means exhaustive list. Each involve plethora elements. For example, gene expression profiles, intra-specific intra- traits, others 1). Despite significant progress, technologies enabling measurement, characterization continue evolve. considerable potential innovation relating environment factors, imagining enhancing curating papers aimed interdisciplinary integration. compiled revolve around core tool Boom Kissling (2024) tracking complement traditional improving SDM Chronister demonstrate automated acoustic detectors monitor distinguish juvenile adult great horned owls, opening door estimating demographic parameters By incorporating researchers explore life cycle stages factor consider when setting priorities. Goicolea employ hierarchical refine locally calibrated nested regionally constrained ones. approach mitigates common problem truncating calibrating local (Thuiller Mowry account constraints disease vector ticks, case resulting improved estimates. Several featured issue leverage interplay differentiation populations distributions. Naughtin structure SDM-based reconstructions ranges infer, via approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likely combinations matches structure. argue help rank otherwise indistinguishable using standard validation methods. another application, Mascarenhas Carnaval random forest relates history particularly dispersal characteristics. Their results highlight traits arthropod phylogeography. Hernández linking suitability, modelled deep time intervals, diversity. integration produces interesting regarding stability paleological periods structures, identification endemic regions poorly surveyed Along similar lines, Formoso-Freire relate abundance distributions, investigating long-term informs present-day community stability. modelling. Sharma niche evolution. utility study hummingbirds. Verdon eDNA estimate soil taxa traditionally overlooked monitoring. ambitious incorporates numerous amplicon variants (ASVs), revealing capabilities limitations approaches. discussed authors, dynamics require better estimates enhanced soil-related Another recurring theme incorporation success adapting changing climates hinges Luoto 2007). Poggiato (2025) tackled while González-Trujillo phenomenological structures proposed Mendoza (2019, 2022). hindcast guild latitudes, interactions. Predictive represented issue. Park present simulation demonstrating median flowering dates mean temperatures onset termination periods. offers valuable inferring phenology strong representation, thus helping phenological shifts Siders capitalize comprehensive literature review extract shark devices comparing vertical without depth-weighted information. show depth preference add sharks, components. Adding third dimension marine seems like venue research, recently available thanks accumulation biotelemetry 3-D ocean (Fragkopoulou Lertzman-Lepofsky take advantage databases role explaining correlations taxa. analysis demonstrates co-variations well-documented enhances time. summary, exemplify innovations reshaping monitor, understand, various From population taxonomic, evolving rapidly. Emerging now previously invisible challenging-to-monitor aspects facilitated tools eDNA, detection (sound telemetry), modelling, big exciting direction involves utilizing deep-time inform forecast sequencing opened possibilities examining variation forging compelling connections there gaps publications (Maldonado 2015, Nuñez focused tropical (Mascarenhas Moreover, small subset those illustrated Fig. 1c. plays crucial monitoring scale, features limited scaling contexts. underscore number unexplored advancing could combine text mining, citizen engaging individuals everyday cell phones multi-modal real-time analysis? Such enable declines shifts. Could genomics epigenetics offer deeper insights genotype-to-phenotype relationships, adaptation prioritizing level? Furthermore, facilitate 'macroscope' (Gonzalez bridging gap leaves Global underrepresented datasets? questions scratch surface what achieved push boundaries does represent exhaustively literature, prevalence absence certain biases state none (Lagerholm Raxworthy 2021) environments middens pollen deposits, pre-human baselines, shifts, influenced intervention. lack coherent uncertainties. ensemble become practice 2007, 2019), equivalent identifying reporting Citizen underrepresented, despite prominence artificial intelligence assisted Pl@ntNet (Joly 2016). Links error estimation further applied development. dominance limitations. To static mechanistic Functional though promising, here. empirical elusive (but see Violle Díaz Neyret developed scaled extents scenarios. incorporate regulation, productivity, stability, functions focusing solely species. Dynamic weather remote Near-term identified making timely decisions play retroactive role, lessons learned improve forecasts Lewis Achieving requires fully replicable pipelines near-real-time data. highlights open programming literacy (Mandeville 2021). Open ensure reproducibility democratize easily adapted settings 2015). Additionally, system archiving synthesizing 2023) needed build based experiences. points out, given us toolkit learn about levels organization, datasets detailed equally informative reconciling scientific cultures: values detail specificity, emphasizes experimentation explanations, simplifies discern generalizable Striking right balance challenging yet worthwhile endeavour science. CNM was funded her salary French servant national institution. Christine Meynard: Conceptualization (equal), Validation Writing - original draft (lead), editing (lead). Sydne Record: (supporting), (supporting). Nuria Galiana: Dominique Gravel: Miguel Araújo:

Язык: Английский

Measuring polar bear health using allostatic load

Conservation Physiology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

The southern Beaufort Sea polar bear sub-population (Ursus maritimus) has been adversely affected by climate change and loss of sea ice habitat. Even though the is likely decreasing, it remains difficult to link individual health physiological effects. We developed an index allostatic load, which represents potential dysregulation. load included blood- hair-based analytes measured in physically captured bears spring. examined relation body condition, age, terrestrial habitat use and, over time, for demographic groups. Overall, had no relationship with condition. However, was higher adult females without cubs that used habitats prior year, indicating dysregulation land use. Allostatic declined age cubs. Sub-adult males demonstrated decreased time. Our study one first attempts develop a scoring system free-ranging bears, our findings highlight complexity using as wild species. Establishing links between population dynamics important advancing conservation efforts.

Язык: Английский

Habitat Suitability of Ziziphus spina‐christi and Ziziphus nummularia in a Changing Climate in the Khalijo‐Omanian Zone, Iran

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(5)

Опубликована: Май 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change, a global threat of utmost significance, has the potential to trigger shifts in biodiversity distribution and emergence novel ecological communities. While considerable research focused on predicting impacts climate change range shift species, critical yet often overlooked aspect is role changing plants hot, arid, poorly known ecosystems. We employed an ensemble species modeling framework investigate how might affect spatial two significant indicator Ziziphus spina‐christi nummularia , within hot arid Khalijo‐Omanian ecosystem Iran. ran models for current using climatic variables then projected future periods (2041–2070 2071–2100) under different scenarios. These findings suggest that both respond differently Some regions may undergo expansion, whereas others experience contraction due shifting environmental conditions. Overall, are their towards higher latitudes as conditions evolve. Conservation management measures, including identification priority areas, crucial protecting these species. The conclusions this study valuable conservation authorities, local stakeholders, individuals dedicated preserving habitats.

Язык: Английский