EPPO Bulletin, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 54(S1), С. 1 - 3
Опубликована: Март 1, 2024
Язык: Английский
EPPO Bulletin, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 54(S1), С. 38 - 51
Опубликована: Март 1, 2024
Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the modelling tools available for integrating climate change impacts into pest risk assessments (PRA), elucidating existing methodologies and models employed to understand potential distributions pests based on historical data under future scenarios. We highlight strengths weaknesses these provide commentary their ability identify emerging threats due accurately adequately, considering establishment likelihood, host crop exposure distribution impacts. The simplest methods are climate‐matching models, degree‐day development Köppen–Geiger classification. Correlative species derive species–environment relationships have been applied PRA with mixed success. When fitted different continents they usually challenged extrapolate suitability patterns outside space used train them. Global is creating novel climates, exacerbating this ‘transferability’ problem. Some developed reveal when extrapolating. Process‐oriented which focus mechanisms processes rather than patterns, inherently more reliable extrapolation climates such as new These however, require skill generally knowledge craft robust models.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
9
Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Сен. 23, 2024
Anticipating future biosecurity threats to prevent their occurrence is the most cost-effective strategy manage invasive alien species. Yet, biological invasions are complex, highly uncertain processes. High uncertainty drives decision-making away from strategic preventative measures and towards operational outcomes aimed at post-invasion management. The limited success of in curbing reflects this short-term mindset decision-makers should instead apply foresight imagine futures where minimised. Here, four major thinking tools (environmental scanning, driver-mapping, horizon scenario planning) that describe probable, possible, plausible preferable assessed terms potential support both research policy addressing invasions. Environmental scanning involves surveying existing data sources detect signals emerging species through knowledge changes either likelihood or consequences Several approaches widely used for including automated scans digital media, consensus-based expert scoring, prediction markets. Automated systems can be poor detecting weak because large volume 'noise' they generate while scoring relies on prior so fails identify unknown unknowns which also true markets work well quite specific known risks. Driver-mapping uses consensus political, economic, societal, technological, legislative, environmental forces shaping a critical component has rarely been applied Considerable exists extend approach develop system maps interventions may effective explore driver complexes determine megatrends Horizon systematic outlook developments issues exist margins current thinking. Applications have strongly focused related technological challenges relevant invasion science. However, these already current-day research. Because based consensus, it needs embrace diversity cultural, gender, disciplinary more adequately ensure participants think intuitively outside own subject boundaries. Scenario planning constructs storylines alternative ways social, situation might future. Biological favoured structured such as standardised archetypes matrices, but scope intuitive by using incasting, backcasting, causal layered analysis. Futures not engaged with other stakeholders thus light management priorities. To date, each isolation. an integrated diverse set exploring plausible, relating crucial delivery national global scales.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
6
Global Security Health Science and Policy, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 10(1)
Опубликована: Фев. 7, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Outlook on Agriculture, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2024
This paper explores the potential role of private sector, particularly crop protection industry, in enhancing emergency pest prevention, preparedness and response (EPPPR) relation to invasive pests. By leveraging their position knowledge, companies can contribute significantly mitigating pest-related risks, enabling sustainable responses. We outline a comprehensive framework for EPPPR, covering preparedness, early detection, integrated management, we discuss how sector this framework. highlight value that greater involvement could bring detection through its on-the-ground networks data-sharing capabilities with national plant organisations. Additionally, stress importance robust agile regulatory frameworks policies creating an environment effective management outbreaks. also emphasise opportunities provided by investment research development driving innovation technologies. fostering partnerships governments, international organisations, local communities other stakeholders, play vital building resilient agricultural system capable withstanding challenges.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Дек. 18, 2024
Abstract The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is among the key invasive pests attacking maize and sorghum, staple cereals in many countries Africa. determination of habitat suitability species via correlative model priority tasks that provide basic information for achieving sustainable plant protection. In this study, we developed a distribution S. identified influencing environmental factors under current future climatic conditions Ethiopia MaxEnt program. results showed area curve (AUC) simulated was 0.856 (±0.010), confirming good predictive ability model. isothermality precipitation driest month are most dominant bioclimatic variables with percentage contribution 39.4% 11.6%, respectively, percentages very highly suitable, moderately low‐suitable, unsuitable areas were 21.24%, 21.17%, 28.22%, 16.34% 13.03%, total Ethiopian land mass. From present to 2070s, suitable habitats will increase due global warming. This study noted pest major threat sorghum Ethiopia. Hence, emphasis should be given strengthening monitoring management range, which would lessen economic losses invasion ensure agricultural safety.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
EPPO Bulletin, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 54(S1), С. 1 - 3
Опубликована: Март 1, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0