Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 117(8), С. 4211 - 4217

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2020

Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline some species, it generally remains unclear which changes climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely lost. Here, we identify specific that are associated with widespread local extinctions have already occurred. We then use this information predict extent future loss processes forestall extinction. used data from surveys 538 plant animal over time, 44% had at one or more sites. found locations larger faster hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites significantly smaller mean annual temperatures, despite as proxies for overall change. Based their past rates dispersal, estimate 57–70% these not disperse quickly enough avoid However, show niche shifts appear far avoiding extinction although most studies focus only dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal shifts, project 16–30% go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help climatic survive.

Язык: Английский

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Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Март 29, 2019

Abstract While there is a clear demand for scenarios that provide alternative states in biodiversity with respect to future emissions, thorough analysis and communication of the associated uncertainties still missing. Here, we modelled global distribution ~11,500 amphibian, bird mammal species project their climatic suitability into time horizon 2050 2070, while varying input data used. By this, explore originating from selecting models (SDMs), dispersal strategies, circulation (GCMs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We demonstrate overwhelming influence SDMs RCPs on projections, followed by strategies GCMs. The relative importance each component varies space but also selected sensitivity metrics species’ range size. Overall, this means using multiple SDMs, RCPs, assumptions GCMs necessity any scenario assessment, explicitly report uncertainties.

Язык: Английский

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Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review

Ecological Modelling, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 411, С. 108817 - 108817

Опубликована: Сен. 16, 2019

Язык: Английский

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Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests

Forest Ecology and Management, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 430, С. 485 - 497

Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2018

Язык: Английский

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Compound climate events increase tree drought mortality across European forests

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 816, С. 151604 - 151604

Опубликована: Ноя. 12, 2021

Climate change can lead to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts and heat waves increasing frequency compound events with unknown impacts on forests. Here we use two independent datasets, a compiled database tree drought mortality ICP-Forest level I plots, study hot summers, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD), dry years forest defoliation across Europe. We focused background rates, studied their co-occurrence summers years. In total, 143 out 310 Europe, i.e. 46% cases, corresponded rare characterized by Over past decades, summer temperature increased in most sites severe resulted not observed before 1980s. From plots identified 291 (1718 trees) 61 (128 where mortality, respectively, were caused drought. The analyses these showed that 34% 27% cases climate events, respectively. Background rates Europe period 1993-2013 presented higher values regions VPD more steeply rose, increased. steady increase temperatures Southern Eastern may favor conditions. Giving both, local intense are linked such expect an European over next decades.

Язык: Английский

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Mapping temperate forest tree species using dense Sentinel-2 time series

Remote Sensing of Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 267, С. 112743 - 112743

Опубликована: Окт. 14, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Where should China practice forestry in a warming world?

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 28(7), С. 2461 - 2475

Опубликована: Дек. 28, 2021

As a nature-based and cost-effective solution, forestation plays crucial role in combating global warming, biodiversity collapse, environmental degradation, well-being. Although China is acknowledged as leader of has achieved considerable overall success improvements through mega-forestation programs, many negative effects have also emerged at local scales due to the planting maladapted tree species. To better help achieve carbon neutrality new vision an ecological civilization, committed further increase forestation. However, where lands such efforts should really be located not so well understood yet agreed upon, especially face rapid climate change. Based on ensemble-learning machine, we predicted spatial habitats (ecological niche) forest, grassland, shrubland, desert under present future conditions based natural climax vegetation distribution across China. We show that potential are mainly eastern China, which east Hu Line (also known Heihe-Tengchong Line). Under change, forests will shift substantially latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational distribution. Potential by 33.1 million hectares 2070s, conversions shrub grassland along Line. Our prediction map indicates rehabilitation universal optimal restoration strategy areas west This analysis consistent with much observed evidence failures recent climate-change-induced forest range shifts. results provide overview importance adaptive science-based planning management.

Язык: Английский

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The evolutionary genomics of species’ responses to climate change

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(10), С. 1350 - 1360

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Trends and gaps in the use of citizen science derived data as input for species distribution models: A quantitative review

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 16(3), С. e0234587 - e0234587

Опубликована: Март 11, 2021

Citizen science (CS) currently refers to the participation of non-scientist volunteers in any discipline conventional scientific research. Over last two decades, nature-based CS has flourished due innovative technology, novel devices, and widespread digital platforms used collect classify species occurrence data. For scientists, offers a low-cost approach collecting information at large spatial scales that otherwise would be prohibitively expensive. We examined trends gaps linked use as source data for distribution models (SDMs), order propose guidelines highlight solutions. conducted quantitative literature review 207 peer-reviewed articles measure how representation different taxa, regions, types have changed SDM publications since 2010s. Our shows number papers using SDMs increased approximately double rate overall papers. However, disparities taxonomic geographic coverage remain studies CS. Western Europe North America were regions with most (73%). Papers on birds (49%) mammals (19.3%) outnumbered other taxa. Among invertebrates, flying insects including Lepidoptera, Odonata Hymenoptera received attention. Discrepancies between research interest availability especially important amphibians, reptiles fishes. Compared animal plants rare. Although aims scope are diverse, conservation remained central theme present examples recommendations motivate further research, such combining multiple sources promoting local traditional knowledge. hope our findings will strengthen citizen-researchers partnerships better inform SDMs, less-studied taxa regions. Researchers stand benefit from quantity available improve global predictions distributions.

Язык: Английский

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The Effects of Climate Change Scenarios on Carpinus betulus and Carpinus orientalis in Europe

Water Air & Soil Pollution, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 233(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 29, 2022

Язык: Английский

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