Coral‐bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(14), С. 4229 - 4250

Опубликована: Апрель 27, 2022

Abstract The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one the greatest challenges this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines spatial temporal scales. Here we review some seminal recent coral‐bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data processes can improve predictive models provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements biological Taking integrative approach scales, using for example hierarchical estimate major coral‐reef processes, will not only rapidly advance science but necessary guide decision‐making conservation efforts. To conserve encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands km 2 ) transcend national boundaries. Such networks protected reefs reef connectivity, through larval dispersal transverse thermal environments, genotypic repositories may become essential units selection environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational be best chance corals persist change, while humanity struggles reduce emissions greenhouse gases net zero.

Язык: Английский

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Linking evolutionary potential to extinction risk: applications and future directions

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 20(9), С. 507 - 515

Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2022

Extinction‐risk assessments play a major role in prioritizing conservation action at national and international levels. However, quantifying extinction risk is challenging, especially when including the full suite of adaptive responses to environmental change. In particular, evolutionary potential (EP) – capacity evolve genetically based changes that increase fitness under changing conditions has proven difficult evaluate, limiting its inclusion assessments. Theory, experiments, simulations, field studies all highlight importance EP characterizing mitigating risk. Disregarding can therefore result ineffective allocation resources inadequate recovery planning. Fortunately, proxies for be estimated from environmental, phenotypic, genetic data. Some incorporated into quantitative extinction‐risk assessments, whereas others better inform basic actions maximize resilience future Integration decision making challenging but essential remains an important issue innovation applied science. Front Ecol Environ 2022;

Язык: Английский

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Climate change scenarios in fisheries and aquatic conservation research

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 80(5), С. 1163 - 1178

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2023

Abstract Scenarios are central to fisheries and aquatic conservation research on climate change. project future greenhouse-gas emissions, which models translate into warming projections. Recent global development trends have significantly changed our understanding of plausible emissions pathways 2100 sensitivities emissions. Here, we review these developments make recommendations for scenario use in research. Although uncertain, recent suggests that scenarios producing ∼3.4–4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing by (e.g. SSP2-3.4 SSP2-4.5/RCP4.5) might be most plausible. This corresponds ∼2–3 degrees C with median sensitivities, or 1.5–4 considering climate-system uncertainties. Higher- lower-emissions RCP2.6 RCP6.0) should explored However, high-emission (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, SSP3-7.0) seem implausible used clear rationales caveats ensure results not misinterpreted scholars, policymakers, media. We analyse papers published from 2015 2022 major journals, find RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 the commonly scenarios, though RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 has increased since 2020. Studies predominantly quantitative rather than qualitative differences between scenarios’ impacts.

Язык: Английский

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Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Март 12, 2024

Abstract Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely safeguard most of world’s coral reefs. This prognosis primarily based a small subset available models apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review 79 articles projecting reef responses climate revealed five main methods. ‘Excess constituted one third (32%) all studies but attracted disproportionate share (68%) citations in field. Most methods relied deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding field’s ability estimate uncertainty. To synthesize projections, we aimed identify with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices model outputs and scenarios limited analysis fraction studies. We found substantial discrepancies projected impacts, indicating serving basis for syntheses may project more severe consequences other Drawing insights from fields, propose incorporate uncertainty into modeling approaches multi-model ensemble approach generating projections futures.

Язык: Английский

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No coral recovery three years after a major bleaching event in reefs in the Southwestern Atlantic refugium

Marine Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 171(5)

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Widespread variation in heat tolerance and symbiont load are associated with growth tradeoffs in the coral Acropora hyacinthus in Palau

eLife, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 10

Опубликована: Авг. 13, 2021

Climate change is dramatically changing ecosystem composition and productivity, leading scientists to consider the best approaches map natural resistance foster resilience in face of these changes. Here, we present results from a large-scale experimental assessment coral bleaching resistance, critical trait for population persistence as oceans warm, 221 colonies Acropora hyacinthus across 37 reefs Palau. We find that bleaching-resistant individuals inhabit most but are found more often warmer microhabitats. Our survey also wide variation symbiont concentration among colonies, with lower load tended be bleaching-resistant. By contrast, our data show low comes at cost growth rate, tradeoff may operate widely corals environments. Corals high have been suggested source habitat restoration or selective breeding order increase reef climate change. maps where resistant can found, existence tradeoffs heat suggest caution unilateral use this one restoration.

Язык: Английский

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Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(15), С. 4509 - 4522

Опубликована: Фев. 2, 2022

Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and reduce cover on reefs, yet few studies have identified "bright spots," where corals recently shown a capacity to survive such pressures. We analyzed 7714 worldwide surveys from 1997 2018 along with 14 environmental temperature metrics in hierarchical Bayesian model identify conditions that contribute present-day cover. also locations significantly higher (i.e., spots") lower "dark than regionally expected. In addition, using 4-km downscaled data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 8.5, we projected reefs for the years 2050 2100. Coral modern was positively associated historically high maximum sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), negatively contemporary SSTs, tropical-cyclone frequencies, human-population densities. By 2100, under RCP8.5, relative decreases >40% most globally but less decline Indonesia, Malaysia, central Philippines, New Caledonia, Fiji, French Polynesia, which should be focal localities multinational networks protected areas.

Язык: Английский

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Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2023

Abstract Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in assemblages at a rate 0.1 °C/decade for remote Pacific reef system. This led less severe impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts community structure. Using projections, show that if continues rise over coming century most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions trajectories are possible. High-frequency be fully mitigated some reefs low-to-middle emissions scenarios, only delayed high scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate potential ecological resilience but still highlight reducing carbon line Paris Agreement commitments preserve

Язык: Английский

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Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 29(11), С. 3010 - 3018

Опубликована: Март 21, 2023

Abstract Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding future impacts ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity such change. Here we estimate how ability symbionts evolve tolerance heat stress, or for coral hosts shuffle favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses combined ocean warming acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution shuffling, both individually when combined, favours persistent positive production. However, our projections (NCCP) vary spatially by RCP. For example, 19%–35% modelled reefs are still projected NCCP 2050 if can increased thermal tolerance, depending Without capacity, number with drops 9%–13% 2050. Accounting project median NCPP will occur low greenhouse (RCP2.6) in Indian Ocean, even moderate (RCP4.5) Pacific Ocean. be insufficient halt transition globally into erosion severe (RCP8.5).

Язык: Английский

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Larval precompetency and settlement behaviour in 25 Indo-Pacific coral species

Communications Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024

Knowledge of coral larval precompetency periods and maximum competency windows is fundamental to understanding population dynamics, informing biogeography connectivity patterns, predicting reef recovery following disturbances. Yet for many species, estimates these early-life history metrics are scarce vary widely. Furthermore, settlement cues taxa not known despite consequences habitat selection. Here we performed a comprehensive experimental time-series investigation behaviour, 25 Indo-Pacific broadcast-spawning species. To investigate the duration precompetency, improve predictions windows, compare responses within amongst completed replicated repeated 24-hour assays that exposed larvae five common cues. Our study revealed in some species begins as early two days post fertilization, but period varies between from about six days, with local retention connectivity. We also found competent settle beyond 70 old display complex temporal challenging assumption gradually wanes over time adding evidence longevity can support genetic long-distance dispersal. Using data, grouped by short, mid long periods, identified their preferred Taken together, results inform our dynamics across broad range be applied investigations connectivity, recovery.

Язык: Английский

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