Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2023

Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, embed improved process-based understanding into farming systems model to discern changes in under future climates. Third, avenues for adapting cropping contextualised environment. We find yield penalties increase from 3-11% historically 10-20% 2080, with reflecting trade-off between the duration timing relative stage. document greater potential waterlogging-tolerant environments longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared higher annualised ratios evapotranspiration precipitation Australia). Under climates, altering sowing time adoption reduces 18%, while earlier winter alleviates 8%. highlight serendipitous outcome wherein present conditions likely be similar those future, suggesting adaptations climates could designed using realised today.

Язык: Английский

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Carbon myopia: The urgent need for integrated social, economic and environmental action in the livestock sector

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 27(22), С. 5726 - 5761

Опубликована: Июль 27, 2021

Abstract Livestock have long been integral to food production systems, often not by choice but need. While our knowledge of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation has evolved, the prevailing focus been—somewhat myopically—on technology applications associated with mitigation. Here, we (1) examine global distribution GHG emissions, (2) explore social, economic and environmental co‐benefits trade‐offs interventions (3) critique approaches for quantifying emissions. This review uncovered many insights. First, while from ruminant are greatest in low‐ middle‐income countries (LMIC; globally, 66% produced Latin America Caribbean, East southeast Asia south Asia), majority strategies designed developed countries. serious concern is heightened fact that 80% growth meat over next decade will occur LMIC. Second, few studies concurrently assess aspects Of 54 reviewed, only 16 had triple‐bottom line benefit medium–high potential. Third, efforts stimulate adoption allowing both reduction (ER) carbon sequestration (CS) would achieve net mitigation, CS measures greater potential co‐benefits. The scientific community must shift attention away myopic lens on carbon, towards more holistic, systems‐based, multi‐metric carefully consider raison d'être systems. Consequential life cycle assessments systems‐aligned ‘socio‐economic planetary boundaries’ offer useful starting points may uncover leverage cross‐scale emergent properties. derivation harmonized, globally reconciled sustainability metrics requires iterative dialogue between stakeholders at all levels. Greater emphasis simultaneous characterization multiple dimensions help avoid situations where progress made one area causes maladaptive outcomes other areas.

Язык: Английский

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The methane imperative

Frontiers in Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2

Опубликована: Июль 30, 2024

Anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions increases from the period 1850–1900 until 2019 are responsible for around 65% as much warming carbon dioxide (CO 2 has caused to date, and large reductions in required limit global 1.5°C or 2°C. However, have been increasing rapidly since ~2006. This study shows that expected continue increase over remainder of 2020s if no greater action is taken atmospheric thus far outpacing projected growth rates. important implications reaching net zero CO targets: every 50 Mt CH sustained cuts envisioned under low-warming scenarios not realized would eliminate about 150 Gt remaining budget. Targeted therefore a critical component alongside decarbonization minimize warming. We describe additional linkages between mitigation options , especially via land use, well their respective climate impacts associated metrics. explain why target specifically neither necessary nor plausible. Analyses show where most feasible at national sectoral levels given limited resources, example, meet Global Methane Pledge target, but they also reveal uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, many costs clearly low relative real-world financial instruments very compared with damage estimates, legally binding regulations pricing needed goals.

Язык: Английский

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Crop traits enabling yield gains under more frequent extreme climatic events

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 808, С. 152170 - 152170

Опубликована: Дек. 5, 2021

Climate change (CC) in central China will seasonal patterns of agricultural production through increasingly frequent extreme climatic events (ECEs). Breeding climate-resilient wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes may mitigate adverse effects ECEs on crop productivity. To reveal traits conducive to long-term yield improvement the target population environments, we created 8,192 virtual with contrasting but realistic ranges phenology, productivity and waterlogging tolerance. Using these genotypes, conducted a genotype (G) by environment (E) management (M) factorial analysis (G×E×M) using locations distributed across entire cereal cropping zone mid-China. The G×E×M invoked locally-specific sowing dates under future climates that were premised shared socioeconomic pathways SSP5-8.5, time horizon centred 2080. Across simulated adaptation landscape, was primarily driven components phenology (average grain increase 6-69% sites optimal combinations traits). When incident solar radiation not limiting carbon assimilation, ideotypes higher yields characterised earlier flowering, radiation-use efficiency larger maximum kernel size. At limited radiation, crops required longer growing periods realise genetic potential, although size again prospective enabling rates gains. By 2080, stress some regions mid-China impact substantially productivity, penalties up 1,010 kg ha-1. Ideotypes G×M could penalty caused 15% climates. These results help distil promising trait best practice enable robust more events, including flash flooding soil waterlogging.

Язык: Английский

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Grazing management for soil carbon in Australia: A review

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 347, С. 119146 - 119146

Опубликована: Окт. 16, 2023

The livestock industry accounts for a considerable proportion of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, and in response, the Australian red meat has committed to an aspirational target net-zero emissions by 2030. Increasing soil carbon storage grazing lands been identified as one method help achieve this, while also potentially improving production provision other ecosystem services. This review examined effects management on factors that drive sequestration Australia. A systematic literature search meta-analysis was used compare stocking intensity (stocking rate or utilisation) (i.e, continuous, rotational seasonal systems) organic carbon, pasture herbage mass, plant growth ground cover. Impacts below biomass, nitrogen structure are discussed. Overall, no significant impact Australia found, although lower incorporating periods rest into systems (rotational grazing) had positive mass cover compared with higher continuous grazing. Minimal below-ground biomass reported However, these improved some circumstances. While there is lack evidence directly increases this indicated practices have potential benefit drivers increasing above production, maintaining residual promoting productive perennial species. Specific recommendations future research provided paper.

Язык: Английский

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Irrigation with Artificial Intelligence: Problems, Premises, Promises

Human-Centric Intelligent Systems, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 4(2), С. 187 - 205

Опубликована: Май 13, 2024

Abstract Protagonists allege that artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionising contemporaneous mindscapes. Here, we authoritatively review the status quo of AI and machine learning application in irrigated agriculture, evaluating potential of, challenges associated with, a wide range existential approaches. We contend aspiring developers irrigation systems may benefit from human-centred AI, nascent algorithm captures diverse end-user views, behaviours actions, potentially facilitating refinement proposed through iterative stakeholder feedback. AI-guided human–machine collaboration can streamline integration user needs, allowing customisation towards situational farm management adaptation. Presentation big data intuitive, legible actionable forms for specialists laypeople also urgently requires attention: here, AI-explainable interpretability help harness human expertise, enabling end-users to contribute their experience within an pipeline bespoke outputs. Transfer holds promise contextualising place-based agroecological regions, production or enterprise mixes, even with limited inputs. find rate scientific software development recent times has outpaced evolution adequate legal institutional regulations, often social, moral ethical license operate, revealing consumer issues ownership, legitimacy trust. opine great elicit sustainable outcomes food security, social innovation environmental stewardship, albeit such more likely be realised concurrent appropriate ethical, dimensions.

Язык: Английский

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A Coupled InVEST-PLUS Model for the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Multi-Scenario Prediction Analysis

Land, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 13(4), С. 509 - 509

Опубликована: Апрель 12, 2024

In investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and spatial attributes of carbon storage across terrestrial ecosystems, there is a significant focus on improving regional sequestration capabilities. Such endeavors are crucial for balancing land development with ecological preservation promoting sustainable, low-carbon urban growth. This study employs integrated InVEST-PLUS model to assess predict changes in ecosystem under various use scenarios within Chengdu cluster, vital region Central Western China, by 2050. The results indicate following. (1) A linkage between dynamics changes: over two decades, 7.5% decrease arable was observed alongside 12.3% increase areas, leading an 8.2% net reduction storage, equating loss 1.6 million tons carbon. (2) Carbon variations four scenarios—natural (NDS), (UDS), farmland protection (FPS), (EPS)—highlight impact differing developmental conservation policies Chengdu’s reserves. Projections until 2050 suggest further 5% NDS without intervention, while EPS could potentially 3%, emphasizing importance strategic planning policy. research provides solid theoretical foundation exploring relationship further. summary, findings highlight necessity incorporating considerations into strategies. not only sheds light current challenges but also presents method forecasting mitigating urbanization effects services, thus supporting sustainable goals.

Язык: Английский

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Towards resilient, inclusive, sustainable livestock farming systems

Trends in Food Science & Technology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 152, С. 104668 - 104668

Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2024

Abstract The identification of agriculture and land use configurations that achieve net zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emissions is critical to inform appropriate food policy, yet national NZ targets lack consistent definitions. Here, 3000 randomised scenarios projecting future agricultural production compatible combinations in Ireland were screened using ten When aggregating carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide various methods, 1–85% met criteria. Despite considerable variation, common actions emerged across definitions, including high rates afforestation, organic soil re-wetting, cattle destocking. Ambitious technical abatement moderated, but could not substitute, these actions. With abatement, 95th percentile milk output varied from 11–91% 2021 output, was associated with reductions up 98% suckler-beef production, a 47–387% increase forest cover. Achieving will thus require transformation Ireland’s sector. Lagging change effects urgent action, sustaining just transition visioning supporting sustainable resilient system, alongside an expanding circular bioeconomy. We provide new insight into the sensitivity such pointing need for international consensus on accounting methane targets.

Язык: Английский

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Contestations in the emerging soil-based carbon economy: towards a research agenda

Sustainability Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2025

Abstract This paper highlights the need to consider processes and relations in political, knowledge, technical socio-material complex that underpins emergence of a soil-based carbon economy. economy, characterised by proliferation voluntary markets, farming policies, supply chain other initiatives, operates through private mechanisms (offsetting, insetting) public policy instruments. emerging economy entails number inherent political knowledge contestations associated with claims around mitigation potential soil sequestration farming. We adapt social ecological systems (SES) framework understand these draw on corpus agricultural, ecological, science literatures identify pose critical questions for future research. conceptualise as interactions outcomes among actors embedded within defined SES (governance, resource systems, units, actors). Five themes are identified: Marketisation, abstraction technogovernance; Power expert knowledge; Disputing meaning value carbon; Disruptions: new interfaces, configurations actor relations; Uncertainties capabilities. These underpin research agenda proposal. argue an integrative conceptualisation is essential equitably account broad mix social, technical, economic, contexts which present options operationalising conceptualisation.

Язык: Английский

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