Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

PNAS Nexus, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(4)

Опубликована: Март 28, 2024

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth these interwoven emergencies underscores urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, triggering irreversible changes biophysical systems that underpin Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences actions disproportionately borne vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine terrestrial biomes face tipping points, while escalating challenges to food water access foreshadow bleak outlook security. Against this backdrop Earth at risk, call response centered on decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, implementing regenerative practices natural resource management. We elimination detrimental subsidies, promotion equitable development, transformative financial support lower income nations. A paradigm shift must occur replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism economic model prioritizes sustainability, resilience, justice. advocate cultural elevates kinship nature communal well-being, underpinned recognition finite resources interconnectedness its inhabitants. imperative is clear: navigate away from precipice, collectively harness political will, resources, societal values steer toward future where progress does not come cost integrity social equity.

Язык: Английский

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How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 30(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, explore might reach better Large‐scale studies estimated ~1% sampled species up ~70%, even when using same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst‐case estimates often converge near 20%–30% loss, many differences shrink similar assumptions. We perform a new recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss climate under scenarios. However, shows that are biased by excluding most vulnerable (those known from few localities), lead underestimating loss. Conversely, our analyses responses fundamental assumption species' climatic niches do not over time, frequently violated. For example, find mean rates positive thermal niche across ~0.02°C/year. Yet, still slower than projected ~3–4 fold. Finally, levels can combining group‐specific with projections richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary tentatively forecast climate‐related 14%–32% macroscopic in next ~50 years, including 3–6 million (or more) animal plant species, intermediate

Язык: Английский

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Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 380(1917)

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As planet rapidly warms, disruption ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating pace magnitude losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because non-uniform distribution biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are uneven populations across species’ thermal niche, or niche limits within an community, we show that in both cases, resulting clustering population tolerances drives nonlinear increases risk discuss how fundamental constraints physiologies geographical distributions give rise clustered tolerances, responses changing climates could variously temper, delay intensify dynamics. argue risks be null expectation under warming, highlight empirical research needed understand causes, commonness consequences better predict where, when why losses occur. This article part discussion meeting issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace’s legacy for biodiverse future’.

Язык: Английский

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Climate change extinctions

Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 386(6726), С. 1123 - 1128

Опубликована: Дек. 5, 2024

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections produce a quantitative global assessment of climate extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, freshwater ecosystems; inhabiting South America, Australia, New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, has contributed an increasing proportion observed since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which protect first be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic halted reversed.

Язык: Английский

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The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction

Plants, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 13(13), С. 1744 - 1744

Опубликована: Июнь 24, 2024

Our study utilized 374 geographical distribution records of H. mutabilis and 19 bioclimatic factors, employing the MaxEnt model Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). The key environmental variables influencing suitable areas were analyzed through comprehensive contribution rate, permutation importance, Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on this analysis, contemporary future their extents predicted. results indicate that limiting factor affecting is precipitation driest month (bio14), with secondary factors being annual (bio12), mean temperature (bio1), range (bio7). Under climate conditions, total area for approximately 2,076,600 km2, primarily concentrated in tropical subtropical regions southeastern China. low-to-medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), shows a trend first decreasing then increasing compared to current scenario. In contrast, under high-emission (SSP5-8.5), it exhibits decreasing. spatial pattern changes retention rate ranges from 95.28% 99.28%, centers located Hunan Guizhou provinces, showing an overall migration towards west north. These findings suggest possesses certain level adaptability change. However, crucial consider regional drought sudden events practical cultivation introduction processes. our provide scientific basis rational management, conservation, utilization germplasm resources mutabilis.

Язык: Английский

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Scientists’ warning on fossil fuels

Oxford Open Climate Change, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Abstract The evidence is clear that fossil fuels—and the fuel industry and its enablers—are driving a multitude of interlinked crises jeopardize breadth stability life on Earth. Every stage cycle—extraction, processing, transport, combustion or conversion to petrochemical products—emits planet-heating greenhouse gases health-harming pollutants, in addition causing widespread environmental degradation. We review vast scientific showing fuels are root cause climate crisis, harm public health, worsen injustice, accelerate biodiversity extinction, pollution crisis. Fossil responsible for millions premature deaths, trillions dollars damages, escalating disruption ecosystems, threatening people, wildlife, livable future. has obscured concealed this through decades-long, multi-billion-dollar disinformation campaign aimed at blocking action phase out fuels. focus United States as world’s largest oil gas producer dominant contributor these crises. present science-and-justice-based solutions already exist governments civil society restrict influence industry, stop expansion, production use, make rapid, just transition clean, renewable energy materials across economy, while holding accountable deception damages. necessary away from will provide innumerable societal planetary benefits forge path forward sustaining

Язык: Английский

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Forestry trials and species adaptability to climate change

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 30(3)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2024

Most climate change analyses of extinction risk rely on species' climatic requirements determined from only their natural distributions. Many tree species can grow successfully under conditions distinctly different those Gathering together results these introduction trials would help to assess the importance this adaptability for species. The Wiens and Zelinka (2024) review entitled 'How many will Earth lose change?' focusses distribution models (SDMs) contains much useful information. In introducing previous studies, they note that 'these projections were based SDM, which takes current where occur projects in future'. pioneering SDM studies Busby (1988) Booth McMurtrie both used BIOCLIM, first package (Booth et al., 2014). 1988 papers are still very relevant as one analysed distributions, while other introductions outside a distribution. This raised issue ex situ adaptability. Commercial forestry might assist assessing such impacts several plant animal Australia. He wrote 'the primary assumption BIOCLIM system is entities colonise survive areas with climates fitting present profile', his case was solely sentence an early version what now known 'species-environment equilibrium assumption' or simply 'equilibrium assumption'. Ironically, same volume provided evidence may be dubious at least some They Pinus radiata plantation sites endangered its about 5000 ha California two Mexican islands. Yet, it able environments fact, P. most widely grown world illustrating great (see Figure 1 Booth, 2023). Any analysis clearly little no value. desirability collating information part recognised days SDM. (1991) suggested five-stage SDM-based plan 'a global climatological audit forest resources conservation sustainable development'. Tremendous progress has been made four five envisaged, but almost (Booth, (2017) considered showed For example, Dyderski al. reviewed 125 published between 1998 2017. Only 18 gathered data continental broader spatial extents. typically use distributional Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, https://www.gbif.org). These predominantly though invasive occurrences also included cases. Kindt (2023) environmental 48,129 GBIF including standard set 19 variables obtained WorldClim databases (https://worldclim.org). noted 'what could important addition observation proposed trial database 2023)'. shown captured by because highly conclude 'analyses recent responses show fundamental niches do not over time, frequently violated'. common space should carefully examined. using provenances (i.e. genetic material specific location) into As 'species all tolerate' mention trials. have often involved unimproved locations remain largely untapped resource Trevor H. Booth: Conceptualization; investigation; project administration; resources; visualization; writing – original draft; editing. I am grateful providing permission 1. figure makes © OpenStreetMap contributors (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright) OpenMapFiles (https://openmapfiles.org). available Open Data Licence www.opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl). No special funding provided. author declares conflict interest. sharing applicable article datasets generated during study.

Язык: Английский

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Ocean Species Discoveries 1–12 — A primer for accelerating marine invertebrate taxonomy

Biodiversity Data Journal, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12

Опубликована: Авг. 6, 2024

Discoveries of new species often depend on one or a few specimens, leading to delays as researchers wait for additional context, sometimes decades. There is currently little professional incentive single expert publish stand-alone description. Additionally, while many journals accept taxonomic descriptions, even specialist expect insights beyond the descriptive work itself. The combination these factors exacerbates issue that only small fraction marine are known and discoveries described at slow pace, they face increasing threats from accelerating global change. To tackle this challenge, first compilation

Язык: Английский

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Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Betula luminifera H. Winkler in China Using MaxEnt

Forests, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(9), С. 1624 - 1624

Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2024

Betula luminifera H. Winkler, a fast-growing broad-leaved tree species native to China’s subtropical regions, possesses significant ecological and economic value. The species’ adaptability ornamental characteristics make it crucial component of forest ecosystems. However, the impacts global climate change on its geographical distribution are not well understood, necessitating research predict potential shifts under future scenarios. Our aims were forecast impact suitable B. across China using MaxEnt model, which is recognized for high predictive accuracy low sample data requirement. Geographical coordinate points collected from various databases verified redundancy. Nineteen bioclimatic variables selected screened correlation avoid overfitting in model. model was optimized ENMeval package, evaluated Akaike Information Criterion Correction (delta.AICc), Training Omission Rate (OR10), Area Under Curve (AUC). predicted current scenarios based Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). demonstrated with an AUC value 0.9. dominant environmental influencing annual precipitation, minimum temperature coldest month, standard deviation seasonality. habitat area location significantly different scenarios, complex dynamics expansion contraction. centroid also migrate, indicating response changing climatic conditions. findings underscore importance optimization enhancing provide valuable insights development conservation strategies management plans address challenges posed by change.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling reveals the effect of climate and land use change on Madagascar’s chameleons fauna

Communications Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Июль 21, 2024

Abstract The global biodiversity crisis is generated by the combined effects of human-induced climate change and land conversion. Madagascar one World’s most renewed hotspots biodiversity. Yet, its rich variety plant animal species threatened deforestation change. Predicting future Madagascar’s chameleons, in particular, complicated their ecological rarity, making it hard to tell which factor menacing survival. By applying an extension ENphylo distribution model algorithm work with extremely rare species, we find that chameleons will face intense loss north-western sector island. Land conversion humans drive loss, intersect a complex, nonlinear manner We some 30% may lose nearly all habitats, critically jeopardizing chance for

Язык: Английский

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