To what extent do climatic stressors drive human mobility in the world’s drylands? A systematic review of empirical evidence

Population and Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 47(1)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Scenario projections of South Asian migration patterns amidst environmental and socioeconomic change

Global Environmental Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 88, С. 102920 - 102920

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2024

Projecting migration is challenging, due to the context-specific and discontinuous relations between socioeconomic environmental conditions that drive this process. Here, we investigate usefulness of Machine Learning (ML) Random Forest (RF) models develop three net scenarios in South Asia by 2050 based on historical patterns (2001–2019). The model for direction reaches an accuracy 75%, while magnitude percentage R2 value 0.44. variable importance similar both models: temperature built-up land are primary explaining migration, aligning with previous research. In all find hotspots in-migration North-western India out-migration eastern northern India, parts Nepal Sri Lanka, but disparities across other areas. These underscore challenge obtaining consistent results from different approaches, which complicates drawing firm conclusions about future trajectories. We argue application multi-model approaches a useful avenue project dynamics, gain insights into uncertainty range plausible outcomes these processes.

Язык: Английский

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The Migration Intersections Grid: An Organizing Framework for Migration Research in and through the Twenty-first Century

International Migration Review, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Сен. 2, 2024

For this special issue of the International Migration Review, we develop and provide a comprehensive organizing framework, Intersections Grid (MIG), to inform guide migration research in through remainder twenty-first century. We motivate our work by conducting high-level scoping review summaries syntheses different directions travel over time. Informed these results, then identify describe 12 components that constitute MIG, which, as later discuss, is an interactive intersectional framework. Finally, illustrate MIG's nature applying it several areas where framework sort needed address existing emerging issues questions now coming decades.

Язык: Английский

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Mapping the Future of Migration and Climate Change Science

International Migration Review, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 58(4), С. 1913 - 1936

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2024

The scholarship on migration and climate change has been rapidly developed over recent decades, moving away from apocalyptic predictions of mass displacement toward more nuanced modeling the complex relationships between migration. Unfortunately, much that development happened in parallel to core studies thus our prevailing theories do not reflect these emerging Our objectives for this article are describe general theoretical assertions made change-migration literature propose a framework guiding empirical investigations into ways drives human migration, identifying mediating variables directly shape integrating multiple levels analyses. We provide an example how can be used design analytic strategy conclude by suggesting future research use conceptual model move cohesive theory climate-related resulting policy responses.

Язык: Английский

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Intersecting (im)mobilities in the context of drought, hunger and conflict – Reflections inspired by research in Kenya

International Migration, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 61(6), С. 345 - 348

Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2023

Between late 2020 and early 2023, people in the Horn of Africa experienced worst drought more than 40 years, which world hardly took notice. By end 2022, almost 57 million across eight countries faced a severe food crisis.1 While Kenya was not country affected terms number impacted—the highest level insecurity recorded Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan Somalia—the situation there deteriorated most rapidly over course that year (FSIN & GNAFC, p. 39). This drought—a failure five consecutive long short rainy seasons two half years—has been linked to an atypical La Niña phenomenon but must also be seen context higher temperatures greater rainfall variability are predicted for years come. The expected climate change impacts this region include reduced freshwater availability, crop production livestock productivity—all have serious negative on people's livelihoods security (Trisos et al., 2022) as well patterns (im)mobility, we would argue. Pastoral living remote areas were seriously by drought. But it short-sighted link this—and other—hunger crises their solely natural factors. Poverty, long-standing marginalisation rural and, particularly pastoral, communities arid semi-arid lands, economic shocks dependencies violent conflict compound effects drought; they co-produce impact mobility. Political contestations conflicts do consequences systemically disrupt daily lives, including well-being, mobility (Kemmerling 2022; Martin-Shields Stojetz, 2019). Recent data show political main drivers estimated 117.1 19 around world, millions 9, 40). We argue both rising levels changing (im)mobility need understood against background mutually enforcing change, socio-economic ruptures. Mobility is classic response crises, no matter whether these ‘man-made’ or ‘natural’, indeed 2.7 displaced moved within Africa—mostly respective countries—to cope with immediate drought, such loss diversify income, access humanitarian aid, equally available all places (IOM, 31). It too assess quantify medium- long-term Africa, many drought-affected had only temporarily settled elsewhere returned place usual residence after ended April 2023. Moving beyond overly simplistic understanding response, our recent research pastoral (in)security amidst change-related Marsabit County, northern (Etzold Müller-Koné, 2023), may provide some initial insights into multiple, complex non-linear relations between security, violence human (im)mobility. Focussing four intersecting forms namely mobility, sedentarisation, forced displacement voluntary labour educational will briefly illustrate how (im)mobilities shaped conflict, why matters ongoing hunger crisis. First, pastoralists regions Kenya, mobility—including borders—is normal well-adapted pattern coping natural, risks uncertainties (Scoones, 2023). However, since colonial times, recently reinvigorated reforms, land value due large-scale infrastructure investments demarcation nature conservancies, new barriers exclusive modes certain ethno-political groups actors, generally territorialisation, led shrinking spaces pastoralists. Over two-and-a-half-year constant threat cattle raids killings restricted groups' grazing watering points, top dwindling environmental resources. Agricultural has threatened fields, marketing produce transporting crops other goods through ‘enemy territory’ became risky villages. As ethnicised increased worsened, capacities (agro)pastoral communities, fundamentally dependent severely weakened. Impaired thus contributed substantially increasing (from crisis emergency 2022). Second, sedentarisation side coin key lesson previous droughts, development projects opportunities, because encouraged politicians, traditionally highly mobile permanently locations region. Some given up pastoralism altogether, while others now split households, men boys continuing move animals, older community members, women children live consolidated Due politics local settlement contested territory where ethnic boundaries fluid administrative often clearly delineated, practice reactive (as crises) proactive adaptation strategy) can become driver animosities generate conflicts. Nevertheless, having permanent foothold, ideally one ‘visible’, support organised, easily reached monitored agencies, de facto vital management strategy communities. Arguably, populations better addressed Third, disruptive form In 160,000 displaced, at least temporarily, past decades. ‘Turbi massacre’, attack militias Turbi region, subsequent revenge attacks alone resulted 6,200 2005. internally persons (IDPs) then resettled county rebuilt lives—often alternating agro-pastoral livelihoods. ‘IDP villages’ cultivated used once again existing dynamics violence. Since 2021, IDP villages destroyed, forcing residents flee again. Other villages, established, too, different lived peacefully generations, sites ethnically motivated result, hundreds people, especially minorities dominated groups, settle controlled co-ethnics. practice, homogeneous settlements spirals mutual fear mistrust, recurring cycles lost homes farmland, areas, animals means production. location, IDPs work rely resources extended network family kin. With basis gone, traditional strategies longer work. deepened vulnerability insecurity. further exacerbated fact actors did interventions, targeting ‘only’ population. Voluntary education fourth plays central role drought- conflict-affected Kenya. On hand, (temporary) migration Kenyan cities earn additional alternative motorcycle taxis riding, collecting firewood burning charcoal, require personal business multiple places, translocal solidarity, members elsewhere, adequate conflict. transfers complement, cannot replace core based agricultural translocality reflect wider transformations (Greiner Sakdapolrak, 2013). Long-distance centres easier, cheaper common substantial improvements roads. Access primary schools improved considerably ambitions risen constantly. still lagging behind follows, from travel distances secondary county, thousands young adults left vocational training, technical college university counties. These mobilities transformed tremendously multidimensional crises. death during diminished resource base families. Many therefore afford children, future substantially. Meanwhile, high along major roads, arbitrary spread hatred targeted murders activists who stand ruling elites, impede lifestyles might promising peace sustainable To conclude, important investigate detail slow-onset extreme weather events eastern crucial consider multi-dimensional livelihood Neither insecurity, nor Northern driven devastating Existing inequality competing play decisive role. addition, partially heavily impeded decisively influence interrelations context, necessary very cautious about using narratives ‘climate refugees’. Echoing growing scholars rightfully criticize determinist explanations ‘climate-induced migration’ policy discourse (Boas 2019; Oakes 2023; among others), think recognise multiplicity shape patterns, own perceptions, experiences aspirations, embeddedness social relations, local, transnational networks, meaning diverse lives. Such relational, critical inform debates under conditions Open funding enabled organized Projekt DEAL. opinions expressed Commentary those author necessarily views Editors, Editorial Board, International Organization Migration John Wiley Sons. findings study request corresponding author. publicly privacy ethical restrictions.

Язык: Английский

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Conclusion

Sustainable development goals series, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 261 - 270

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Rapid human movement and dengue transmission in Bangladesh: a spatial and temporal analysis based on different policy measures of COVID-19 pandemic and Eid festival

Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 26, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Introduction: Environmental (im)mobilities: Improving the evidence base for effective policy making

International Migration, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 61(5), С. 3 - 12

Опубликована: Авг. 29, 2023

Abstract Despite the converging agreement on linkages between climate and broader environmental change human (im)mobilities, evidence gaps persist that often relate to data challenges. It remains necessary improve knowledge better map, understand, project, address migration, displacement, planned relocation, immobilities. Analyses of continuing strategies for innovative use are key rise challenge. This Special Section International Migration highlights these presents them.

Язык: Английский

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