Evolving threats in an unforgiving climate: impact of non-optimal temperatures on life expectancy

Population and Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 47(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 28, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 7, 2024

Abstract While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions seemingly mild winters. The study aimed establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences vulnerability temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000–2019) were matched meteorological determine for each region temperature decrease and optimal lowest mortality. Regression models developed generalize explain these findings considering characteristics. Optimal predicted based on local average summer (R 2 = 85.6%). Regional explained by combination of 86.1%). Regions warm winters cold summers showed highest during winter. Contrary theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable Scandinavia. southern edges demonstrated serious decreased temperatures, even if was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests observed connection primarily reflects modulation length respiratory virus infection seasons climate conditions, counterbalanced varying levels acquired immunity presence heatwaves eliminating frail individuals. Thus, flat cycle countries harsh climates paradoxically imply threats throughout whole year.

Язык: Английский

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Beyond the sine wave: unveiling climate-driven baseline mortality cycles

International Journal of Biometeorology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 68(5), С. 861 - 869

Опубликована: Фев. 16, 2024

Язык: Английский

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From respiratory diseases to nervous system disorders: Unraveling the certified causes of influenza‐associated deaths in Poland from 2000 to 2019

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 17(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023

Abstract Background This study aims to accurately estimate influenza‐associated deaths in Poland and their certified cause of death, due significant discrepancies between official numbers expected impact. Methods Excess mortality from 2000 2019 was calculated using Seasonal‐Trend Decomposition Procedure based on LOESS (STL), which can detect non‐linear trends non‐sinusoidal cycles. then used as an explanatory variable a model predicting monthly fluctuations officially recorded causes death 2010 2019. Results A total 142,000 conservative estimates were identified, representing 1.86% overall mortality. Only 0.61% influenza. Nearly half influenza attributed the seasonal baseline mortality, potentially doubling estimated impact solely peaks. Influenza‐associated frequently respiratory diseases (24.36%), with majority underlying conditions such cardiovascular (45.31%), cancer (9.06%), or diabetes (2.66%). more commonly nervous system (1.84%) mental disorders (1.04%), rather than itself. There noticeable secondary infections, meningococcal gastrointestinal infections. Conclusion These findings highlight importance improved estimation for informing public health policy decisions.

Язык: Английский

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Respiratory Diagnoses Year‐Round: Unraveling the Multifaceted Pediatric Infection Cycles

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 18(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Objective The aim of the study is to analyze annual cycle pediatric medically attended respiratory illnesses. Study Design Data on 141 million visits from years 2010–2019 were obtained Polish National Healthcare Fund. To identify underlying patterns and trends within aggregated data, techniques like seasonal‐trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) principal component analysis (PCA) applied. Results A strongly recurring pattern was observed. Following minimum in late summer, there a sudden surge upper infections early September. Subsequently, overall declined gradually, while share lower increased, particularly during influenza peaks January March. Afterwards, steadily, with an additional peak tonsillopharyngitis noted midsummer. Dimensionality reduction diagnoses implied existence two major groups co‐occurring diagnoses, proportions which change over year: one smaller but more severe, peaking season, second dominating severity. Age differences observed, babies showing likely diagnosed common cold rather than specific infection. Conclusion While enhancing surveillance strategies indeed desirable long‐term goal, it worth noting that despite variability observed onset infection cycles generally follow relatively fixed pattern. This consistency provides foundation for effective planning underscores potential proactive measures mitigate impact seasonal outbreaks.

Язык: Английский

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Diabetes mortality burden attributable to influenza in China: A population-based time-series analysis

Heliyon, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11(1), С. e41497 - e41497

Опубликована: Дек. 27, 2024

Язык: Английский

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