Bio‐ORACLE v3.0. Pushing marine data layers to the CMIP6 Earth System Models of climate change research

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 33(4)

Опубликована: Фев. 25, 2024

Abstract Motivation Impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity are often projected with species distribution modelling using standardized data layers representing physical, chemical and biological conditions the global ocean. Yet, available (1) have not been updated to incorporate Sixth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which comprise Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios; (2) consider a limited number Earth System Models (ESMs), (3) miss important variables expected influence future distributions. These limitations might undermine impact assessments, by failing integrate them within context most up‐to‐date projections, raising uncertainty in estimates misinterpreting exposure extreme conditions. Here, we provide significant update Bio‐ORACLE, extending biologically relevant from present‐day end 21st century scenarios based multi‐model ensemble CMIP6. Alongside, R Python packages for seamless integration workflows. The aim enhance understanding potential impacts support well‐informed research, conservation management. Main Types Variable Contained Surface benthic for, chlorophyll‐ , diffuse attenuation coefficient, dissolved iron, oxygen, nitrate, ocean temperature, pH, phosphate, photosynthetic active radiation, total phytoplankton, cloud fraction, salinity, silicate, sea‐water direction, velocity, topographic slope, aspect, terrain ruggedness index, position index bathymetry, surface air mixed layer depth, sea‐ice cover thickness. Spatial Location Grain Global at 0.05° resolution. Time Period Decadal (2000–2100). Major Taxa Level Measurement Marine associated epibenthic habitats. Software Format A package functions developed software.

Язык: Английский

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Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(11), С. 3711 - 3727

Опубликована: Фев. 25, 2022

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of globe. Understanding impact climate change on foundational marine species needed to provide insight ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted expand their ranges further north in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses southern range edge modelling forest distributions according three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted environment), cryotolerant with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited and cryophobic temperate conditions) forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, current extent suitable contemporary future forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). Our analyses indicate that already ubiquitous north, thus cannot change, resulting an overall loss due severe contractions. within basin, however, remain largely stable notable exceptions some areas, particularly Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where extirpated edge, ecosystem shifts towards regimes mid latitudes, though many aspects these shifts, such as total biomass depth range, be field validated. results first global synthesis changes pan-Arctic coastal ecosystems suggest transitions unavoidable now areas.

Язык: Английский

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Reorganization of seagrass communities in a changing climate

Nature Plants, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 9(7), С. 1034 - 1043

Опубликована: Июнь 19, 2023

Abstract Although climate change projections indicate significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity, the effects are much more profound and striking in marine environment. Here we explore how different facets of locally distinctive α - β -diversity (changes spatial composition) seagrasses will respond future scenarios across globe compare their coverage with existing network protected areas. By using species distribution modelling a dated phylogeny, predict widespread reductions species’ range sizes that result increases seagrass weighted phylogenetic endemism. These projected endemism divergent shifts composition leading differentiation some areas homogenization communities other regions. Regardless scenario, potential hotspots these predicted occur outside current areas, providing new priority for conservation planning incorporate seagrasses. Our findings report responses group is currently under represented assessments yet crucial maintaining food chains habitat wide biodiversity.

Язык: Английский

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Past climate-driven range shifts structuring intraspecific biodiversity levels of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) at global scales

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2023

The paradigm of past climate-driven range shifts structuring the distribution marine intraspecific biodiversity lacks replication in biological models exposed to comparable limiting conditions independent regions. This may lead confounding effects unlinked climate drivers. We aim fill this gap by asking whether global giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) is explained changes occurring across two hemispheres. compared species' population genetic diversity and structure inferred with microsatellite markers, long-term refugial regions predicted species modelling (SDM) from last glacial maximum (LGM) present. broad antitropical Macrocystis pyrifera composed six significantly differentiated groups, for which current levels match expectations changes. Range LGM present structured low latitude where relics higher unique were found (particularly Channel Islands California Peru), while post-glacial expansions following ~ 40% contraction extensive homogenous reduced diversity. estimated effect was between hemispheres, largely demonstrating that can be evolutionary forces ocean. Additionally, differentiation endemicity regional confers high conservation value these localized hotspots forests.

Язык: Английский

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Rolling with the punches: Organism-environment interactions shape spatial pattern of adaptive differentiation in the widespread mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 917, С. 170244 - 170244

Опубликована: Янв. 24, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Marine Life Science & Technology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6(2), С. 349 - 362

Опубликована: Май 13, 2024

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent environmental requirement a species. We tested what extent physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing Japanese sea cucumber

Язык: Английский

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The species distribution model based on the random forest algorithm reveals the distribution patterns of Neophocaena asiaeorientalis

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Март 23, 2025

The Species Distribution Model (SDM) provides a crucial foundation for the conservation of Yangtze finless porpoise (YFP), critically endangered freshwater cetacean endemic to China. In this study, we conducted population and habitat surveys, employed Random Forest algorithm (RF) construct SDMs. We found that preference YFP shows complex seasonality. Cyanobacteria total phosphates have been identified as predominant factors influencing distributions by affecting prey resources. emphasize ascertaining presence pseudo-absence points YFP, in conjunction with selection key factors, constitutes foundational element construction suggest incorporation techniques such environmental DNA could expand range particularly regard distribution resources at genus or species level. This study guidance SDMs demonstrates potential machine learning algorithms constructing aquatic species.

Язык: Английский

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Differences in predictions of marine species distribution models based on expert maps and opportunistic occurrences

Conservation Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 24, 2025

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for assessing biodiversity change. These require high-quality occurrence data, which not always available. Therefore, it is increasingly to determine how data choice affects predictions of species' ranges. Opportunistic records and expert maps both widely used sources species SDMs. However, unclear SDMs based on these differ in performance, particularly the marine realm. We built 233 fish from 2 families with types compared their performances potential predictions. occurrences were sourced field surveys South China Sea online repositories International Union Conservation Nature Red List database. generalized linear explore drivers differences prediction between model types. When projecting distinct regions no calibrated using opportunistic performed better than those maps, indicating transferability new environments. Differences predictor values accounted dissimilarity predictions, likely because included large areas unsuitable environmental conditions. Dissimilarity levels among differed, suggesting a taxonomic bias sources. Our findings highlight sensitivity distributional data. Although have an role modeling, we suggest researchers assess accuracy reduce commission errors knowledge target species.

Язык: Английский

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Population Genetics Provides Insights Into the Impact of Future Climate Change on the Genetic Structure and Distribution of Asian Warty Newts (Genus Paramesotriton)

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Assessing population vulnerability to climate change is essential for informing management and conservation strategies, particularly amphibians. We integrated genetics ecological niche modeling (ENM) assess the effect of on distribution genetic structure two species Asian warty newts ( Paramesotriton deloustali P. guangxiensis ) in northern Vietnam. analyzed using a genome‐wide SNP dataset generated with MIG‐seq method. Additionally, we applied ensemble predict potential under scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5) periods 2050 2090. Population revealed three primary groups: West, East + Cao Bang (CB), Quang Ninh (QN). CB exhibited discordance between mitochondrial DNA single‐nucleotide nuclear polymorphism data. Furthermore, gene flow within populations was restricted, West QN. Spatial analyses clusters conditioned by environmental variables predicted that cluster would expand, whereas those QN decrease. The introgression structures probably reduces change. ENM analysis these are susceptible change, resulting reduction their suitable habitat areas across all scenarios. also observed shift toward higher elevations. Our results suggest mountainous Vietnam could serve as refugia effects intensify.

Язык: Английский

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Integrating population genetics and species distribution models to predict red seabream distribution under climate change

Global Ecology and Conservation, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. e03589 - e03589

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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