Assessing trait‐based scaling theory in tropical forests spanning a broad temperature gradient DOI
Brian J. Enquist,

Lisa Patrick Bentley,

Alexander Shenkin

и другие.

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 26(12), С. 1357 - 1373

Опубликована: Окт. 12, 2017

Abstract Aim Tropical elevation gradients are natural laboratories to assess how changing climate can influence tropical forests. However, there is a need for theory and integrated data collection scale from traits ecosystems. We predictions of novel trait‐based scaling theory, including whether observed shifts in forest across broad temperature gradient consistent with local phenotypic optima adaptive compensation temperature. Location An spanning 3,300 m consisting thousands tree trait measures taken 16 1‐ha plots southern Perú, where gross net primary productivity (GPP NPP) were measured. Time period April November 2013. Major taxa studied Plants; trees. Methods developed communities ecosystems tested several predictions. assessed the covariation between climate, traits, biomass GPP NPP. measured multiple linked variation growth their frequency distributions within gradient. paired these individuals forests simultaneous ecosystem productivity. Results Consistent NPP primarily scaled biomass, but secondary effect on was much less than expected. This weak dependence appears reflect directional mean community that underlie decreases site Main conclusions The shift trees dominate more cold environments an ‘adaptive/acclimatory’ kinetic effects leaf photosynthesis growth. Forest showed overly peaked skewed distributions, importance filtering optimal recent species composition dominance attributable warming change. Trait‐based provides basis predict have will functioning

Язык: Английский

Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models DOI Creative Commons
Katherine L. Yates, Phil J. Bouchet, M. Julian Caley

и другие.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 33(10), С. 790 - 802

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2018

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy precision transferred novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These summarized into six technical fundamental challenges, which underlie combined need intensify research on determinants ecological predictability, including species traits data quality, develop best practices transferring models. Of high importance is identification widely applicable set transferability metrics, with appropriate tools quantify sources impacts prediction uncertainty under conditions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

608

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges DOI Open Access
Michael C. Dietze, A. M. Fox, Lindsay M. Beck‐Johnson

и другие.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 115(7), С. 1424 - 1432

Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2018

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in future?” do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering requires an ability forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting needs of near-term (daily decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison specific, quantitative predictions new observational data, one strongest tests scientific theory. Near-term opportunity iteratively cycle between performing analyses updating light evidence. This iterative process gaining feedback, building experience, correcting models methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, forecasting will accelerate research, make it more relevant society, inform sustainable under high uncertainty adaptive management. Here, we identify immediate societal needs, opportunities, challenges forecasting. Over past decade, data volume, variety, accessibility have greatly increased, but remain interoperability, latency, quantification. Similarly, ecologists made considerable advances applying computational, informatic, statistical methods, opportunities exist forecast-specific theory, cyberinfrastructure. Effective also require changes training, culture, institutions. The need start now; time making ecology predictive here, learning by doing fastest route drive science forward.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

531

Machine-learning phase prediction of high-entropy alloys DOI
Wenjiang Huang,

Pedro Jesse Martin,

Houlong Zhuang

и другие.

Acta Materialia, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 169, С. 225 - 236

Опубликована: Март 15, 2019

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

441

A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels DOI Creative Commons
Anna Norberg, Nerea Abrego, F. Guillaume Blanchet

и другие.

Ecological Monographs, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 89(3)

Опубликована: Май 2, 2019

Abstract A large array of species distribution model ( SDM ) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences individual or assemblages. Given wealth existing models, it is unclear which models perform best interpolation extrapolation data sets, particularly when one concerned with We compared predictive performance 33 variants 15 widely applied recently emerged s in context multispecies data, including both joint that multiple together, stacked each individually combining predictions afterward. offer a comprehensive evaluation these by examining their withheld empirical validation different sizes representing five taxonomic groups, prediction tasks related to extrapolation. measure 12 measures accuracy, discrimination power, calibration, precision predictions, biological levels occurrence, richness, community composition. Our results show variation among performance, especially communities comprising many are rare. The do not reveal any major trade‐offs performance; same performed generally well terms discrimination, species, In contrast, gave most precise were calibrated, suggesting poorly performing can make overconfident predictions. However, none all tasks. As general strategy, we therefore propose researchers fit small set showing complementary then apply cross‐validation procedure involving separate establish performs goal study.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

441

A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology DOI
Andrew T. Tredennick, Giles Hooker, Stephen P. Ellner

и другие.

Ecology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 102(6)

Опубликована: Март 12, 2021

Abstract Selecting among competing statistical models is a core challenge in science. However, the many possible approaches and techniques for model selection, conflicting recommendations their use, can be confusing. We contend that much confusion surrounding selection results from failing to first clearly specify purpose of analysis. argue there are three distinct goals modeling ecology: data exploration, inference, prediction. Once goal articulated, an appropriate procedure easier identify. review highlight strengths weaknesses relative each goals. then present examples prediction using time series butterfly population counts. These show how approach flows naturally goal, leading different selected purposes, even with exactly same set. This illustrates best practices ecologists should serve as reminder recipes cannot substitute critical thinking or use independent test hypotheses validate predictions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

324

Responses of ant communities to disturbance: Five principles for understanding the disturbance dynamics of a globally dominant faunal group DOI Open Access
Alan N. Andersen

Journal of Animal Ecology, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 88(3), С. 350 - 362

Опубликована: Окт. 3, 2018

Abstract Ecological disturbance is fundamental to the dynamics of biological communities, yet a conceptual framework for understanding responses faunal communities remains elusive. Here, I propose five principles ants—a globally dominant group that widely used as bioindicators in land management, which appear have wide applicability other taxa. These are follows: (1) The most important effects habitat on ants typically indirect, through its structure, microclimate, resource availability and competitive interactions; (2) openness key driver variation ant communities; (3) species large degree determined by their openness; (4) same will different habitats, because impacts (5) community vary according functional composition biogeographical history relation openness. illustrate these using results primarily from studies fire, agent globally, provide common currency comparative analysis. argue many also apply groups so can be considered general ecological “laws.” As case ants, fundamentally related openness, it it.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

191

Mutualistic networks: moving closer to a predictive theory DOI Creative Commons
Fernanda S. Valdovinos

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 22(9), С. 1517 - 1534

Опубликована: Июнь 26, 2019

Abstract Plant–animal mutualistic networks sustain terrestrial biodiversity and human food security. Global environmental changes threaten these networks, underscoring the urgency for developing a predictive theory on how respond to perturbations. Here, I synthesise theoretical advances towards predicting network structure, dynamics, interaction strengths responses find that mathematical models incorporating biological mechanisms of interactions provide better predictions dynamics. Those include trait matching, adaptive foraging, dynamic consumption production both resources services provided by mutualisms. Models species traits predict potential structure (fundamental niche), while based dynamics abundances, rewards, foraging preferences reproductive can extremely realised structures may successfully From theoretician's standpoint, model development must more realistically represent empirical data strengths, population vary with perturbations from global change. an empiricist's needs make specific be tested observation or experiments. Developing using short‐term allows longer term community As become available, rigorous tests will improve.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

155

Conceptual and methodological advances in habitat‐selection modeling: guidelines for ecology and evolution DOI Creative Commons
Joseph M. Northrup, Eric Vander Wal, Maegwin Bonar

и другие.

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 32(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 9, 2021

Abstract Habitat selection is a fundamental animal behavior that shapes wide range of ecological processes, including movement, nutrient transfer, trophic dynamics and population distribution. Although habitat has been focus studies for decades, technological, conceptual methodological advances over the last 20 yr have led to surge in addressing this process. Despite substantial literature focused on quantifying habitat‐selection patterns animals, there marked lack guidance best analytical practices. The foundations most commonly applied modeling frameworks can be confusing even those well versed their application. Furthermore, yet synthesis made yr. Therefore, need both current state knowledge selection, seeking study Here, we provide an approachable overview analyses (HSAs) conducted using functions, which are by far framework understanding This review purposefully non‐technical without heavy mathematical statistical notation, confuse many practitioners. We offer history HSAs, describing tortuous path our understanding. Through overview, also aim address areas greatest confusion literature. synthesize outlining exciting field modeling, discussing evolutionary inference contemporary techniques. paper clarity navigating complex HSAs while acting as reference practices guide

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

139

Prediction in ecology: a first‐principles framework DOI Creative Commons
Michael C. Dietze

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 27(7), С. 2048 - 2060

Опубликована: Июнь 24, 2017

Abstract Quantitative predictions are ubiquitous in ecology, yet there is limited discussion on the nature of prediction this field. Herein I derive a general quantitative framework for analyzing and partitioning sources uncertainty that control predictability. The implications assessed conceptually linked to classic questions such as relative importance endogenous (density‐dependent) vs. exogenous factors, stability drift, spatial scaling processes. used make number novel reframe approaches experimental design, model selection, hypothesis testing. Next, application uncertainties illustrated using short‐term forecast net ecosystem exchange. Finally, advocate new comparative approach studying predictability across different ecological systems processes lay out hypotheses about what limits how these should scale space time.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

161

Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach DOI Creative Commons
Carrie A. Cizauskas, Colin J. Carlson, Kevin R. Burgio

и другие.

Royal Society Open Science, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 4(1), С. 160535 - 160535

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2017

Despite the number of virulent pathogens that are projected to benefit from global change and spread in next century, we suggest a combination coextinction risk climate sensitivity could make parasites at least as extinction prone any other trophic group. However, existing interdisciplinary toolbox for identifying species threatened by is inadequate or inappropriate when considering conservation targets. A functional trait approach can be used connect parasites' ecological role their disappearance, but this complicated taxonomic diversity many parasite clades. Here, propose biological traits may render particularly vulnerable (including high host specificity, complex life cycles narrow climatic tolerance), identify critical gaps our knowledge biology ecology. By doing so, provide criteria triage efforts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

136