Revealing hidden sources of uncertainty in biodiversity trend assessments

Ecography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 6, 2025

Idiosyncratic decisions during the biodiversity trend assessment process may limit reproducibility, whilst ‘hidden' uncertainty due to collection bias, taxonomic incompleteness, and variable resolution reliability of reported trends. We model alternative made taxon‐level abundance distribution trends using an 18‐year time series covering freshwater fish, invertebrates, primary producers in England. Through three case studies, we test for bias quantify stemming from data preparation specification decisions, assess risk conflating individual species when aggregating higher ranks, evaluate potential incompleteness. Choice optimizer algorithm filtering obtain more complete explained 52.5% variation estimates, obscuring signal taxon‐specific The use penalized iteratively reweighted least squares, a simplified approach optimization, was most important source uncertainty. Application increasingly harsh filters exacerbated modelled dataset. Aggregation ranks significant uncertainty, leading conflation among protected invasive species. also found substantial positive estimation across six fish populations which were not consistently recorded all operational areas. complement analyses observational with silico experiments monitoring processes simulated enable comparison estimates known underlying trends, confirming that incompleteness have negative impacts on accuracy estimates. Identifying managing is crucial informing effective conservation policy practice. highlight several serious sources affecting present tools improve transparency process.

Язык: Английский

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Multiplying Factors of Disturbance of Mammalian Fauna during Evolution in the Itombwe Nature Reserve in DR Congo

Natural Resources, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(04), С. 153 - 171

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Non‐linearity and Temporal Variability Are Overlooked Components of Global Vertebrate Population Dynamics

Diversity and Distributions, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 18, 2024

ABSTRACT Aim Population dynamics are usually assessed through linear trend analysis, quantifying their general direction. However, trends may hide substantial variations in population that could reconcile apparent discrepancies when the extent of biodiversity crisis. We seek to determine whether use non‐linear methods and quantification temporal variability can offer a more complete representation changes global than commonly‐used approaches. Methods analysed 6437 time series from 1257 vertebrate species Living Planet Database over period 1950–2020. modelled populations second‐order polynomials classified trajectories according direction acceleration. these same using classical analysis. quantified mean squared error fitted polynomials. then used generalised mixed models test potential sources heterogeneity variability. Results In all, 44.8% were non‐linear. Across all populations, 30% declining, increasing, 40% with no trend. Among showing trend, half concave or convex. Non‐linearity was expressed differently between taxonomic groups, mammals higher prevalence non‐linearity. Marine freshwater variable terrestrial fish other vertebrates. Differences geographical regions detected both non‐linearity variability, but straightforward pattern emerged. There differences components IUCN categories. Main Conclusions reveal overlooked dramatic declines recovery signals dynamics. Thus, moving beyond linearity improve our understanding complex better inform conservation decisions. particular, as ‘stable’ informative patterns need be considered assessments.

Язык: Английский

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Integrating macroecology with temporal and trait-based perspectives : toward better attribution of human drivers to diversity changes

Опубликована: Ноя. 25, 2024

The ongoing biodiversity crisis presents a complex challenge for ecological science. Despite consensus on general decline, identifying clear trends remains difficult due to variability in data, methodologies, and scales of analysis. To enhance our understanding changes address discrepancies trend detection, we propose integrating macroecological theory with temporal trait-based perspectives. ● First, analyzing patterns, such as species accumulation curves, can reconcile synthesize conflicting observations change, enabling quantification diversity shifts across scales. Second, patterns are linked three proximate components: abundance, evenness, spatial aggregation. Investigating these components provides deeper insights into how human activities directly influence trends. Third, incorporating traits the analysis improves impacts by elucidating links between characteristics their responses environmental changes. We discuss limitations challenges this integrative approach highlight it offers comprehensive framework drivers change This facilitates more nuanced impact biodiversity, ultimately paving way informed actions mitigate loss

Язык: Английский

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No General Trend in Functional Diversity in Bird and Mammal Communities Despite Compositional Change

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 34(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 29, 2024

ABSTRACT Aim Despite unprecedented environmental change due to anthropogenic pressure, recent work has found increasing dissimilarity turnover but no overall trend in species diversity through time at the local scale. Functional provides a potentially powerful alternative approach for understanding community composition by linking shifts identity characteristics that underpin ecosystem processes. Here we present first multitaxa, multisystem analysis of functional and time. Location Global, with North American focus. Time Period 1923–2014. Major Taxa Studied Mammals, Birds. Methods We paired thousands bird mammal assemblage series from BioTIME database existing trait data representative species' roles reconstruct metrics. Our dataset included 2432 yearly observations 50 studies maximum spatial extent 95 km 2 . Using generalised linear mixed models, estimated general study‐level trends those Results temporal Study such as taxa, realm, biome, or protection status did not distinguish between types exhibited communities. evidence increase fish consumption across all communities support multiple predictions specific traits, including decreasing body size, dietary changes foraging strata. Main Conclusions General indicate on aggregate, do exhibit consistent many biomes realms. At study level, majority showed diversity, remainder falling into broad categories independent richness, redundancy loss (species richness declines maintained) sometimes accompanied richness.

Язык: Английский

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