Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes and economic uncertainty

Human Reproduction Open, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2024(3)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract STUDY QUESTION What are the factors influencing decline in birth rates observed higher-income countries later phase of COVID-19 pandemic? SUMMARY ANSWER Our results suggest that economic uncertainty, non-pharmaceutical policy interventions, and first wave population-wide vaccination campaign were associated with during 2022. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY During pandemic, most briefly declined then shortly recovered, showing no common trends afterwards until early 2022, when they unexpectedly dropped. DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This study uses data on monthly total fertility (TFRs) adjusted for seasonality calendar effects provided Human Fertility Database (HFD). Births taking place between November 2020 October 2022 correspond to conceptions occurring February January i.e. after onset pandemic but prior Russian invasion Ukraine. The cover 26 countries, including 21 Europe, USA, Canada, Israel, Japan, Republic Korea. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS First, we a descriptive analysis changes TFR. Second, employed linear fixed regression models estimate association explanatory seasonally TFRs. considered three broader sets factors: interventions restricting mobility social activities outside home, progression programmes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE We found as measured by increased inflation (P < 0.001), whereas unemployment did not show any link births = 0.677). stringency was linked postponement births, only lower institutional trust 0.003). In higher trust, stricter containment measures positively rates, both year 0.019) and, albeit weakly significant, 0.057). Furthermore, negative share population having received dose TFRs completed primary course (usually consisting two doses) recovery 0.001). LARGE SCALE DATA N/A. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION research is restricted relatively strong support policies government well wide access modern contraception. allow analyses key characteristics, such age, order, status. WIDER IMPLICATIONS FINDINGS multi-country drivers pandemic. past, periods following epidemics health crises typically births. contrast, our gradual phasing out measures, allowing return more normal work life, contributed declining some countries. addition, indicates women avoided pregnancy completion protocol. FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) use external funding. authors acknowledge funding from their home institution, Vienna Institute Demography Austrian Academy Sciences, Open-Access Fund Sciences. For purpose open access, have applied CC BY public copyright licence Author Accepted Manuscript versions arising this submission. All declare conflicts interest.

Язык: Английский

Birth and pregnancy numbers decreased during the COVID‐19 pandemic in Japan: A time series analysis with the ARIMA model

Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 51(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Abstract Aim The long‐term effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on birth and pregnancy trends in Japan remain unclear. Although major sporting events are usually followed by an increase births 9 months later, Japan's fifth wave occurred during Olympics held summer 2021. In this study, we analyzed how number pregnancies changed large‐scale Japan. Methods We utilized monthly vital statistical data from certificates spanning years 2010 to 2022. Our analysis identification, estimation, forecasting stages autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. found ARIMA (1, 12, 12) model be adequate for births. Results Comparing actual 2020 2022 with our forecast, observed a significant decrease across all Japan, urban residential areas, 13 prefectures—primarily metropolitan regions—in January 2021 May also notifications 2020, 2021, October aligns 8 earlier Conclusions expected lead approximately decreased These findings suggest that should monitored future pandemics particular attention fertility trends.

Язык: Английский

Decrease in reproductive desires among non-parent heterosexual women during the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland: the role of epidemiological stress, socioeconomic status, and reproductive rights

Frontiers in Public Health, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13

Опубликована: Март 5, 2025

Deterioration of economic conditions, societal uncertainty, and negative expectations about the future have all been linked to delayed childbearing plans. All these circumstances can be related epidemiological stress, which in turn becomes one culprits for changes fertility This study aims analyze individual factors that decrease probability wanting children after exposure stress from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Recruitment was conducted between April July 2021. Participants who were heterosexual, non-parent, non-pregnant without a diagnosis infertility completed an online, anonymous survey providing information on sociodemographic variables, COVID-19 exposure, COVID-19-related their reproductive desires. Multiple logistic regression models used data. also given opportunity provide descriptive explanation desires due pandemic or political situation (abortion restrictions coinciding with Poland), then qualitative analysis. A total 706 participants (mean age = 28.11, SD 4.87, min 19, max 47). We found (1) desire decreased 43.3% respondents, (2) women higher levels more likely report desired number than less-stressed ones, adjusting potential covariates (aOR 1.064, 95%CI 1.03-1.10, p < 0.001). Disease yielded no significant results 0.862, 95% CI 0.73-1.02, 0.072). Additionally, 70% declared willingness situation. adjusted age, education, place residence, socioeconomic relationship status. The Poland during provided unique combination stressors, showing women's (less so disease) limitation rights.

Язык: Английский