Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Suitable Ecological Niches of the Endemic and Endangered Conifer Pinus bungeana in China DOI Open Access
Zhang Xiao-wei, Yanhui Fan, Furong Niu

и другие.

Forests, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(3), С. 462 - 462

Опубликована: Март 5, 2025

As climate change continues to alter species distributions, Pinus bungeana, an endangered conifer of significant ecological and ornamental value, faces heightened vulnerability, underscoring the critical need understand predict its future habitat shifts. Here, we used 83 effective geographic distribution records, along with climate, topography, soil, drought indices, simulate potential suitable niches for P. bungeana under current conditions across three time periods (2040–2060, 2060–2080, 2080–2100) two shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP126 (low emissions) SSP585 (high emissions), using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results show that area receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) all simulations exceeded 0.973, indicating high predictive accuracy. Soil moisture, minimum temperature coldest month, seasonality, isothermality, precipitation wettest quarter, altitude were identified as key environmental factors limiting soil moisture month being most important factors. Under climatic conditions, potentially primarily located in Shaanxi Province, southern Shanxi southeastern Gansu northeastern Sichuan Henan northwestern Hubei covering approximately 75.59 × 104 km2. However, scenarios, highly areas projected contract, rate decline varying significantly between scenarios. Despite this, total was predicted expand periods. Additionally, a pronounced eastward shift bungeana’s projected, especially high-emission scenario. These findings provide insights into impacts on they offer valuable guidance conservation strategies management context change.

Язык: Английский

Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Suitable Ecological Niches of the Endemic and Endangered Conifer Pinus bungeana in China DOI Open Access
Zhang Xiao-wei, Yanhui Fan, Furong Niu

и другие.

Forests, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(3), С. 462 - 462

Опубликована: Март 5, 2025

As climate change continues to alter species distributions, Pinus bungeana, an endangered conifer of significant ecological and ornamental value, faces heightened vulnerability, underscoring the critical need understand predict its future habitat shifts. Here, we used 83 effective geographic distribution records, along with climate, topography, soil, drought indices, simulate potential suitable niches for P. bungeana under current conditions across three time periods (2040–2060, 2060–2080, 2080–2100) two shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP126 (low emissions) SSP585 (high emissions), using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results show that area receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) all simulations exceeded 0.973, indicating high predictive accuracy. Soil moisture, minimum temperature coldest month, seasonality, isothermality, precipitation wettest quarter, altitude were identified as key environmental factors limiting soil moisture month being most important factors. Under climatic conditions, potentially primarily located in Shaanxi Province, southern Shanxi southeastern Gansu northeastern Sichuan Henan northwestern Hubei covering approximately 75.59 × 104 km2. However, scenarios, highly areas projected contract, rate decline varying significantly between scenarios. Despite this, total was predicted expand periods. Additionally, a pronounced eastward shift bungeana’s projected, especially high-emission scenario. These findings provide insights into impacts on they offer valuable guidance conservation strategies management context change.

Язык: Английский

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