Prediction of Potential Evapotranspiration via Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Sustainable Water Management in the Murat River Basin DOI Open Access

Ibrahim A. Hasan,

Mehmet İshak Yüce

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(24), С. 11077 - 11077

Опубликована: Дек. 17, 2024

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a significant factor contributing to water loss in hydrological systems, making it critical area of research. However, accurately calculating and measuring PET remains challenging due the limited availability comprehensive data. This study presents detailed sustainable model for predicting using Thornthwaite equation, which requires only mean monthly temperature (Tmean) latitude, with calculations performed R-Studio. A geographic information system (GIS) was employed interpolate meteorological data, ensuring coverage all sub-basins within Murat River basin, area. Additionally, Python libraries were utilized implement artificial intelligence-driven models, incorporating both machine learning deep techniques. The harnesses power intelligence (AI), applying through convolutional neural network (CNN) techniques, including support vector (SVM) random forest (RF). results demonstrate promising performance across models. For CNN, coefficient determination (R2) varied from 96.2 98.7%, squared error (MSE) ranged 0.287 0.408, root (RMSE) between 0.541 0.649. SVM, R2 94.5 95.6%, MSE 0.981 1.013, RMSE 0.990 1.014. RF showed best performance, achieving an 100%, values 0.326 0.640, corresponding 0.571 0.800. climate topography data used algorithms consistent, indicate that outperforms others. Consequently, model’s superior accuracy highlights its potential as reliable tool prediction, supporting informed decision-making resource planning. By leveraging GIS, AI, learning, this enhances modeling methodologies, addressing management challenges promoting practices face change limitations.

Язык: Английский

Compulsivity is linked to suboptimal choice variability but unaltered reinforcement learning under uncertainty DOI
Junseok K. Lee, Marion Rouault, Valentin Wyart

и другие.

Nature Mental Health, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 6, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Computational processes of simultaneous learning of stochasticity and volatility in humans DOI Creative Commons
Payam Piray, Nathaniel D. Daw

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2024

Making adaptive decisions requires predicting outcomes, and this in turn adapting to uncertain environments. This study explores computational challenges distinguishing two types of noise influencing predictions: volatility stochasticity. Volatility refers diffusion latent causes, requiring a higher learning rate, while stochasticity introduces moment-to-moment observation reduces rate. Dissociating these effects is challenging as both increase the variance observations. Previous research examined factors mostly separately, but it remains unclear whether how humans dissociate them when they are played off against one another. In large-scale experiments, through behavioral prediction task modeling, we report evidence dissociating solely based on their We observed contrasting rates, consistent with statistical principles. These results model that estimates by balancing dueling effects. Adaptive difficult noisy environments, yet people often succeed. Here, authors show do between easily confused noise—volatility stochasticity—which require opposite adjustments learning.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4

Nonlinear modulation of human exploration by distinct sources of uncertainty DOI Creative Commons
Xinyuan Yan, R. Becket Ebitz, David Darrow

и другие.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2025

Abstract Decision-making in uncertain environments requires balancing exploration and exploitation, with typically assumed to increase monotonically uncertainty. Challenging this prevailing assumption, we demonstrate a more complex relationship by decomposing environmental uncertainty into volatility (systematic change reward contingencies, learnable) stochasticity (random noise observations, unlearnable). Across two behavioral experiments (N=1001, N=747) using probabilistic task, find robust U-shaped between the volatility-to-stochasticity ( v / s ) ratio exploratory behavior, participants exploring when either or dominates. Remarkably, pattern extends real-world financial as demonstrated through analysis of five years S&P 500 stock market data, where portfolio diversity (a proxy for exploration) shows same price movements driven fundamental factors, e.g., economic shifts) relative trading fluctuations from activity unrelated fundamentals). These findings reveal how humans adaptively modulate strategies based on qualitative composition uncertainty, optimal performance occurring at intermediate ratios. This nonlinear has important implications understanding decision-making across domains arises multiple sources.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Reward-based option competition in human dorsal stream and transition from stochastic exploration to exploitation in continuous space DOI Creative Commons
Michael N. Hallquist, Kai Hwang, Beatriz Luna

и другие.

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(8)

Опубликована: Фев. 23, 2024

Primates exploring and exploiting a continuous sensorimotor space rely on dynamic maps in the dorsal stream. Two complementary perspectives exist how these encode rewards. Reinforcement learning models integrate rewards incrementally over time, efficiently resolving exploration/exploitation dilemma. Working memory buffer explain rapid plasticity of parietal but lack plausible policy. The reinforcement model presented here unifies both accounts, enabling rapid, information-compressing map updates efficient transition from exploration to exploitation. As predicted by our model, activity human frontoparietal stream regions, not MT+, tracks number competing options, as preferred options are selectively maintained map, while spatiotemporally distant alternatives compressed out. When valuable new uncovered, posterior β 1 /α oscillations desynchronize within 0.4 0.7 s, consistent with option encoding -stabilized subpopulations. Together, outcomes matching locally cached reward representations rapidly update maps, biasing choices toward often-sampled, rewarded options.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Characterizing the role of unpredictability within different dimensions of early life adversity DOI
Bence Csaba Farkas, Pierre O. Jacquet

Development and Psychopathology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 15

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2024

Abstract Dimensional models of early life adversity highlight the distinct roles deprivation and threat in shaping neurocognitive development mental health. However, relatively little is known about role unpredictability within each dimension. We estimated both average levels of, temporal exposure during adolescence a high-risk, longitudinal sample 1354 youth (Pathways to Desistance study). then related these estimates later psychological distress, Antisocial Borderline personality traits, tested whether any effects are mediated by future orientation. High were found be associated with worse health on all three outcomes, but only traits decreased orientation, pattern consistent evolutionary psychopathology. Unpredictability proved increased distress higher number There was some evidence buffering against detrimental developmental levels. Our results suggest that different dimensions adversity.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Computational processes of simultaneous learning of stochasticity and volatility in humans DOI Open Access
Payam Piray, Nathaniel D. Daw

Опубликована: Июль 13, 2023

Adapting to uncertain environments is crucial for survival. This study explores computational challenges in distinguishing two types of noise: volatility and stochasticity. Volatility refers diffusion noise latent causes, requiring a higher learning rate, while stochasticity introduces moment-to-moment observation reduces rate. For the learner, dissociating their effects on one’s observations challenging because they both increase variance observations. Previous research examined these factors separately, but it remains unclear whether how humans dissociate them. In large-scale experiments, through novel behavioral tasks modeling, we report compelling evidence solely based We observed contrasting rates, consistent with statistical principles. These results are model that estimates by balancing dueling effects, not number other models fail make this distinction. elucidates processes behind adaptive environments.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3

Fluctuations in sequential many-alternative decisions reveal strategies beyond immediate reward maximisation DOI Open Access

Alice Vidal

Опубликована: Фев. 16, 2024

Humans are strategic animals. We constantly make prospective choices, allocating limited resources in situations of uncertain, future outcomes. The management our finite monthly budget, financial investments, or the allocation time to different questions an exam just a few examples. In these scenarios, both decision-making and resource tend fluctuate over even under invariable set constraints. However, it is unclear whether fluctuations affect performance they underlie additional objectives beyond pure reward maximisation. address using breadth-depth dilemma, novel ecological protocol where participants engage sequential multiple-choice scenarios characterised by capacity. designed two experimental environments. one environment, optimal performance, formalised with ideal allocator model, associated homogeneous across consecutive choices. contrast, other environment entails that fluctuating leads greater expected rewards. Our study evaluates participants' adherence measures as deviation from allocations. results revealed participants’ behaviour fluctuates more than optimal, but critically, behavioural adapt available capacity environmental context. Moreover, findings unveil pronounced strategies, such save-for-later history-dependent choice, further implying strategies contribute decision variability. An extension model showed characteristic excess fluctuation driven entropy seeking, pursuit information-gain risk avoidance. Although having modest impact on may reflect advantageous behaviours long run ever changing real-world

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

The relationship between temporal discounting and foraging DOI
Troy Houser

Current Psychology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Сен. 19, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Prediction of Potential Evapotranspiration via Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Sustainable Water Management in the Murat River Basin DOI Open Access

Ibrahim A. Hasan,

Mehmet İshak Yüce

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(24), С. 11077 - 11077

Опубликована: Дек. 17, 2024

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a significant factor contributing to water loss in hydrological systems, making it critical area of research. However, accurately calculating and measuring PET remains challenging due the limited availability comprehensive data. This study presents detailed sustainable model for predicting using Thornthwaite equation, which requires only mean monthly temperature (Tmean) latitude, with calculations performed R-Studio. A geographic information system (GIS) was employed interpolate meteorological data, ensuring coverage all sub-basins within Murat River basin, area. Additionally, Python libraries were utilized implement artificial intelligence-driven models, incorporating both machine learning deep techniques. The harnesses power intelligence (AI), applying through convolutional neural network (CNN) techniques, including support vector (SVM) random forest (RF). results demonstrate promising performance across models. For CNN, coefficient determination (R2) varied from 96.2 98.7%, squared error (MSE) ranged 0.287 0.408, root (RMSE) between 0.541 0.649. SVM, R2 94.5 95.6%, MSE 0.981 1.013, RMSE 0.990 1.014. RF showed best performance, achieving an 100%, values 0.326 0.640, corresponding 0.571 0.800. climate topography data used algorithms consistent, indicate that outperforms others. Consequently, model’s superior accuracy highlights its potential as reliable tool prediction, supporting informed decision-making resource planning. By leveraging GIS, AI, learning, this enhances modeling methodologies, addressing management challenges promoting practices face change limitations.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0