The economic commitment of climate change

Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 628(8008), С. 551 - 557

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2024

Abstract Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons 1–6 . Here we use recent empirical findings more than 1,600 regions worldwide the past 40 years to project sub-national temperature precipitation, including daily variability extremes 7,8 Using an approach that provides a robust lower bound on persistence economic growth, find world economy is committed income reduction 19% within next 26 independent future emission choices (relative baseline without climate impacts, likely range 11–29% accounting for physical uncertainty). These already outweigh mitigation costs required limit global warming 2 °C by sixfold this near-term frame thereafter diverge strongly dependent choices. Committed arise predominantly through changes in temperature, but further climatic components raises estimates approximately 50% leads stronger regional heterogeneity. losses are projected all except those at very high latitudes, which reductions bring benefits. The largest latitudes with cumulative historical emissions present-day income.

Язык: Английский

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Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk

Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 627(8005), С. 797 - 804

Опубликована: Март 13, 2024

Abstract Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves 1,2 , raising concerns about future impacts climate change associated socioeconomic costs 3,4 . Here we develop disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological hybrid input–output computable general equilibrium trade models to estimate midcentury heat stress. We consider health related exposure, value heat-induced labour productivity loss indirect losses due economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. show that annual incremental gross domestic product increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 0.05 0.01–0.15 0.04 2050–2060. By 2060, expected reach total 0.6–4.6% with attributed (37–45%), (18–37%) (12–43%) under different shared pathways. Small- medium-sized developing countries suffer disproportionately higher South-Central Africa (2.1 4.0 times above average) West Southeast Asia (2.0–3.3 average). The supply-chain disruption effects are much more widespread strong hit those manufacturing-heavy such as China USA, leading soaring 2.7 0.7% 1.8 0.5%, respectively.

Язык: Английский

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Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(6), С. 592 - 599

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2024

Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect annual temperature changes. However, roles precipitation, variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections models with empirical dose-response functions translating shifts in means variability, rainfall patterns precipitation into damage, we show that at +3

Язык: Английский

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Early growing season temperature variation and fertilizer use among smallholder farmers

Food Policy, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 133, С. 102793 - 102793

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth

Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 380(6649), С. 1064 - 1069

Опубликована: Май 18, 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth; attribute $4.1 trillion $5.7 in income losses 1982-83 1997-98 events, respectively. In an emissions scenario consistent with current mitigation pledges, increased amplitude teleconnections warming projected cause $84 21st-century losses, these effects shaped by stochastic variation sequence of La Niña events. Our results highlight sensitivity climate variability independent potential for future due intensification such variability.

Язык: Английский

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Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 21, 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. To what extent the impact affects macroeconomy, how long lasts, and may change in warming are important questions for field. Using smooth nonlinear climate-economy model fitted historical data, here we find damaging from an Niño which increases further three years after initial shock, amounting to multi-trillion US dollars economic loss; attribute loss of US$2.1 T US$3.9 globally 1997-98 2015-16 events, far greater than that based on tangible losses. We impacts La Niña asymmetric weaker, estimate gain only US$0.06 1998-99 event. Under change, grows exponentially increased ENSO variability. high-emission scenario, variability causes additional median US$33 economy at 3% discount rate aggregated over remainder 21st century. Thus, exacerbated damage changing should be considered assessments mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 30, 2023

Abstract Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could soon occur over Europe, repeatedly. Despite the European being potentially prone to multi-year successive extremes due influence North Atlantic variability, it remains unclear how likelihood changes under warming, early they reach levels, this is affected by internal variability. Using Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble, we find that even moderate levels virtually impossible 20 years ago 1-in-10 likelihoods as 2030s. By 2050–2074, two single or compound extremes, unprecedented date, exceed likelihoods; while Europe-wide 5-year megadroughts become plausible. Whole decades stress start 2040, 2020 for drought, with a warm Atlantic, starting 2030 twice likely.

Язык: Английский

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Sensing-based park cooling performance observation and assessment: A review

Building and Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 245, С. 110915 - 110915

Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Impact of Global Climate Change on Pulmonary Health: Susceptible and Vulnerable Populations

Annals of the American Thoracic Society, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 20(8), С. 1088 - 1095

Опубликована: Май 1, 2023

As fossil fuel combustion continues to power the global economy, rate of climate change is accelerating, causing severe respiratory health impacts and large disparities in degree human suffering. Hotter drier climates lead longer more wildland fire seasons, impairing air quality around globe. temperatures higher levels ozone, particles, exacerbation chronic diseases premature mortality. Longer pollen seasons provoke allergic airway diseases. In arid regions, accelerated land degradation desertification are promoting dust pollution food production nutritional content that essential health. Extreme weather events flooding impede healthcare delivery can poor indoor due mold overgrowth. Climate activities harm environment ecosystem may also affect emergence spread viral infections including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) associated morbidity mortality exacerbated by pollution. Children elderly susceptible adverse effects change. Geographical socioeconomic circumstances along with a decreased capacity adapt, collectively enhance vulnerability Successful mitigation anthropogenic dependent on commitment energy-intensive nations manage greenhouse gas emissions, as well as, societal support response aggravating factors. This review focuses change, an emphasis vulnerable populations low- middle- income countries.

Язык: Английский

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Thermodynamic assessment of an iron-based circular energy economy for carbon-free power supply

Applied Energy, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 368, С. 123476 - 123476

Опубликована: Май 25, 2024

As the urgency for decarbonization of economies around world is becoming more pressing, green energy carriers synthesized with renewable are emerging as tradable commodities connecting regions abundant to those high demand. Among various options, metals – especially iron have been identified by scientific community promising fuels due their volumetric densities. However, there persists a gap in comprehensive thermodynamic analyses despite growing interest. This study provides rigorous assessment an iron-based circular economy carbon-free power supply. The system encompasses storage through thermochemical reduction oxide powder metallic powder, intermediate storage, release iron-fired plants via oxidation and long-distance inter-regional transport. Each sub-process cycle described evaluated using models, addressing technical implications limitations. Two technological options hydrogen direct oxides namely, shaft furnace flash reactor compared. assessments reveal that superior concept, primarily elimination additional process steps particle size adjustments. Moreover, underscores feasibility means retrofit decarbonize existing coal-fired plants. analysis shows attain higher efficiency levels than plants, even under non-ideal conditions. Regarding transport, industrial practices regulations handling its well established globally, providing further confidence approach. findings indicate integrating repurposing infrastructure presents compelling option. approach effectively addresses temporal spatial mismatch between demand supply serving critical enabler transport long-term which essential successful transition.

Язык: Английский

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