Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 9(37)

Опубликована: Сен. 13, 2023

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine are transgressed, suggesting Earth is now well outside safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased all earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives system biosphere functions, human appropriation net proposed a control variable functional integrity. boundary also transgressed. modeling different climate and land change illustrates these anthropogenic impacts on must be considered in systemic context.

Язык: Английский

---

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Nature, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 619(7968), С. 102 - 111

Опубликована: Май 31, 2023

Abstract The stability and resilience of the Earth system human well-being are inseparably linked 1–3 , yet their interdependencies generally under-recognized; consequently, they often treated independently 4,5 . Here, we use modelling literature assessment to quantify safe just boundaries (ESBs) for climate, biosphere, water nutrient cycles, aerosols at global subglobal scales. We propose ESBs maintaining (safe ESBs) minimizing exposure significant harm humans from change (a necessary but not sufficient condition justice) 4 stricter or sets integrated ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain more than safety climate atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven eight globally quantified least two regional in over half land area already exceeded. our provides a quantitative foundation safeguarding commons all people now into future.

Язык: Английский

---

Photocatalytic CO2 reduction

Nature Reviews Methods Primers, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 3(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2023

Язык: Английский

---

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 626(7999), С. 555 - 564

Опубликована: Фев. 14, 2024

Abstract The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1–3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, region is increasingly exposed unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central remote parts of 1 Long existing feedbacks between environmental conditions are being replaced by novel modify ecosystem resilience, increasing risk critical transition. Here we analyse evidence for five major drivers water on forests, as well potential thresholds those that, if crossed, trigger local, regional or biome-wide collapse. By combining spatial information various disturbances, estimate 2050, 10% 47% will be compounding disturbances may unexpected transitions potentially exacerbate climate change. Using examples disturbed across Amazon, identify three most plausible trajectories, involving different conditions. We discuss how inherent complexity adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities action. Keeping Anthropocene depend combination local efforts end degradation expand restoration, with stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Язык: Английский

---

The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory

BioScience, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 73(12), С. 841 - 850

Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2023

Язык: Английский

---

Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(1), С. 75 - 82

Опубликована: Дек. 22, 2022

Язык: Английский

---

Big Data in Earth system science and progress towards a digital twin

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(5), С. 319 - 332

Опубликована: Май 2, 2023

Язык: Английский

---

Combustion, Chemistry, and Carbon Neutrality

Chemical Reviews, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 123(8), С. 5139 - 5219

Опубликована: Апрель 9, 2023

Combustion is a reactive oxidation process that releases energy bound in chemical compounds used as fuels─energy needed for power generation, transportation, heating, and industrial purposes. Because of greenhouse gas local pollutant emissions associated with fossil fuels, combustion science applications are challenged to abandon conventional pathways adapt toward the demand future carbon neutrality. For design efficient, low-emission processes, understanding details relevant transformations essential. Comprehensive knowledge gained from decades fossil-fuel research includes general principles establishing validating reaction mechanisms models, relying on both theory experiments suite analytic monitoring sensing techniques. Such can be advantageously applied extended configure, analyze, control new systems using different, nonfossil, potentially zero-carbon fuels. Understanding impact its links chemistry needs some background. The introduction therefore combines information exemplary cultural technological achievements nature effects emissions. Subsequently, methodology described. A major part devoted followed by discussion selected applications, illustrating future.

Язык: Английский

---

Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement

Global Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine have recently linked together in ways that are significant scope, devastating effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars policymakers characterize situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains defined. We provide concept with substantive definition, highlight its value-added comparison to related concepts, develop theoretical framework explain causal mechanisms currently entangling many world's crises. In framework, crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combine slow-moving stresses push system out established equilibrium into volatile harmful state disequilibrium. then identify three pathways common stresses, domino effects, inter-systemic feedbacks can connect multiple systems produce synchronized Drawing current examples, we show polycrisis is valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, opening avenues future research. Non-technical summary The term ‘polycrisis’ appears frequently capture interconnections between word lacks content. article, convert it from an empty buzzword conceptual research program enables us better understand linkages contemporary draw upon intersection covid-19 illustrate these explore key features present polycrisis. Technical combines Social media No longer mere buzzword, highlights interactions among help navigate tumultuous future.

Язык: Английский

---

Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(6)

Опубликована: Фев. 9, 2024

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because input fresh water in North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced complex global models by strong freshwater forcing, processes an event so far not investigated. Here, we show results first Community Earth System Model, including large impacts collapse. Using these results, develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal tipping: minimum AMOC-induced transport at southern boundary Reanalysis products indicate that present-day on route to tipping. The useful alternative classical statistical ones, which, when applied our simulated event, turn out be sensitive analyzed time interval before

Язык: Английский

---