The impact of extreme climate on tourism sector international stock markets: A quantile and time-frequency perspective

Tourism Economics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 6, 2025

This paper aims to investigate the heterogeneous effects of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on tourism Sector International Stock Markets under varying climate conditions and time-frequency using Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) method, quantile Granger-causality test Wavelet Coherence method. The study’s findings reveal that: (1) Pacific Rim countries exhibited greater sensitivity SOI fluctuations, while developed markets demonstrated resilience; (2) revealed a strong causal relationship between indices, particularly during periods moderate market fluctuations (at 0.25 0.75 quantiles); (3) since 2022, has intensified, especially in mid-frequency domain; (4) COVID-19 pandemic, results remained robust, suggesting that influence extreme persisted. These not only enhance our understanding seasonal phenomena industries different but also provide insights for market’s adaptation change.

Язык: Английский

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Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 21, 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. To what extent the impact affects macroeconomy, how long lasts, and may change in warming are important questions for field. Using smooth nonlinear climate-economy model fitted historical data, here we find damaging from an Niño which increases further three years after initial shock, amounting to multi-trillion US dollars economic loss; attribute loss of US$2.1 T US$3.9 globally 1997-98 2015-16 events, far greater than that based on tangible losses. We impacts La Niña asymmetric weaker, estimate gain only US$0.06 1998-99 event. Under change, grows exponentially increased ENSO variability. high-emission scenario, variability causes additional median US$33 economy at 3% discount rate aggregated over remainder 21st century. Thus, exacerbated damage changing should be considered assessments mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Present and future limits to climate change adaptation

Nature Sustainability, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 14, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Ten new insights in climate science 2024

One Earth, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 101285 - 101285

Опубликована: Май 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Hysteresis of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to CO ₂ forcing

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 9(31)

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2023

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual climate variability with far-reaching socioeconomic consequences. Many studies have investigated ENSO-projected changes under future greenhouse warming, but its responses to plausible mitigation behaviors remain unknown. We show that ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) and associated global teleconnection patterns exhibit strong hysteretic carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction based on 28-member ensemble simulations of CESM1.2 model an idealized CO2 ramp-up ramp-down scenario. There a substantial increase in ensemble-averaged eastern Pacific SST anomaly variance during period compared period. Such hysteresis mainly attributed response tropical Intertropical Convergence Zone meridional position removal further supported by several selected single-member Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. The presence leads amplified prolonged impact warming climate, depending details pathways.

Язык: Английский

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How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty

Economic Analysis and Policy, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 80, С. 1666 - 1676

Опубликована: Ноя. 7, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Design of Bi-functional mixed oxide electrodes for selective oxidative C–C cleavage of glycerol to formate and synchronized green hydrogen production

Sustainable Energy & Fuels, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 8(13), С. 2954 - 2968

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

NiCoMn oxide nanoneedles with a cactus-like morphology are shown as bifunctional electrocatalysts that selectively oxidize glycerol to HCOOH and concurrently produce H 2 .

Язык: Английский

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Securing a just and healthy future for all: Bringing a planetary health lens to the Earth System Governance research framework

Earth System Governance, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 24, С. 100250 - 100250

Опубликована: Март 12, 2025

Язык: Английский

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The climate variability trio: stochastic fluctuations, El Niño, and the seasonal cycle

Geoscience Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 4, 2023

Abstract Climate variability has distinct spatial patterns with the strongest signal of sea surface temperature (SST) variance residing in tropical Pacific. This interannual climate phenomenon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), impacts weather across globe via atmospheric teleconnections. Pronounced SST variability, albeit smaller amplitude, also exists other basins as well extratropical regions. To improve our physical understanding internal global oceans, we here make case for a conceptual model hierarchy that captures essence observed from subseasonal to decadal timescales. The building blocks consist classic stochastic formulated by Klaus Hasselmann, deterministic low-order ENSO and effect seasonal cycle on both these models. allows us trace processes statistics simulated variability. One important outcomes ENSO’s interaction is generation frequency cascade leading wide range timescales, including near-annual Combination Mode. Using aforementioned blocks, arrive at succinct delineates ubiquitous revisit statistical relationships coherent spatio-temporal variability—so called empirical modes . We demonstrate importance correctly accounting different phasing linear growth/damping rates phenomena, teleconnections noise forcings. discuss how previously some have been misinterpreted due non-intuitive effects power spectra lead/lag correlations. Furthermore, it evident outside Pacific are oftentimes larger than recognized accurately them implications. For instance, shown improved prediction skill can be achieved Indian Ocean fully seasonally modulated temporally integrated remote impacts. These results move refocus attention their predictability.

Язык: Английский

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Financial markets value skillful forecasts of seasonal climate

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Май 14, 2024

Abstract Scientific agencies spend substantial sums producing and improving forecasts of seasonal climate, but they do so without much information about these forecasts’ value in practice. Here we show that financial market participants the production forecasts: options traders price uncertainty generated by upcoming United States National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Winter El Niño Outlooks. Each outlook affects firms throughout economy, with total capitalization $6 $13 trillion, respectively. A 1% improvement skill Outlook reduces firms’ exposure to a one standard deviation shock $18 billion induces an additional $2 million hedging outlook’s news. Firms must not be able undertake ex-ante adaptation would eliminate their forecasted portion climate imposing costs its own.

Язык: Английский

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