The Individual and Combined Effects of Natural–Human Factors on Forest Fire Frequency in Northeast China

Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(10), С. 1685 - 1685

Опубликована: Май 10, 2025

The complex interaction between nature and human factors has led to frequent forest fires, but their combined effects in different areas remain unclear. Taking the Northeast China as study area, this integrates structural equation modeling (SEM) Vine Copula analysis quantify these drivers over 2001–2022. Results show that 70.42% of fires were caused by humans, clustering populated low-elevation areas. SEM revealed partial correlations 0.48 (weather conditions) 0.59 (human activities) with fire frequency; canopy moisture was negatively correlated (−0.38). indicated a joint probability 0.32 footprint index (HFI) under high temperatures. This can provide framework for region-specific management temperate forests combining various influences.

Язык: Английский

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A Guide for Developing Demo‐Genetic Models to Simulate Genetic Rescue

Evolutionary Applications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 18(5)

Опубликована: Май 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Genetic rescue is a conservation management strategy that reduces the negative effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small isolated populations. However, such populations might already be vulnerable to random fluctuations growth rates (demographic stochasticity). Therefore, success depends not only on composition source target but also emergent outcome interacting demographic processes other stochastic events. Developing predictive models account for feedback between (‘demo‐genetic feedback’) therefore necessary guide implementation minimize risk extinction threatened Here, we explain how mutual reinforcement drift, inbreeding, stochasticity increases We then describe these can modelled by parameterizing underlying mechanisms, including deleterious mutations with partial dominance variances increase as abundance declines. combine our suggestions model parameterization comparison relevant capability flexibility five open‐source programs designed building genetically explicit, individual‐based simulations. Using one programs, provide heuristic demonstrate simulated delay virtual would otherwise exposed greater due demo‐genetic feedback. use case study Australian marsupials published data used or all stages development application, parameterization, calibration, validation. highlight either empirical sequence variation (or hybrid approach) suggest model‐based decision‐making should informed ranking sensitivity predicted probability/time parameters (e.g., translocation size, frequency, populations) among different genetic‐rescue scenarios.

Язык: Английский

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Ecological restoration after management of invasive alien plants

Ecological Engineering, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 197, С. 107122 - 107122

Опубликована: Окт. 19, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Future climate warming threatens coral reef function on World Heritage reefs

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 30(7)

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024

Abstract Climate change is the most significant threat to natural World Heritage (WH) sites, especially in oceans. Warming has devastated marine faunas, including reef corals, kelp, and seagrass. Here, we project future declines species ecosystem functions across Australia's four WH coral regions. Model simulations estimating species‐level abundances probabilities of ecological persistence were combined with trait space reconstructions at “present,” 2050 (+1.5°C warming), 2100 (+2°C) explore biogeographical overlaps identify key functional differences forecast changes function through time. Future climates varied by region, Shark Bay projected warm (>1.29°C), followed Lord Howe, when standardized park size. By 2050, ~40% Great Barrier Reef will exceed critical thresholds set warmest summer month (mean monthly maximum [MMM]), triggering mortality. Functional diversity was greatest Ningaloo. At +1.5°C warming, regions drastically their responses, declined 20.2% richness (~70 extinctions) lost all reefs. +2°C, models predicted a complete collapse functions, consistent IPCC forecasts. This variability suggests bespoke management approach needed for each region understanding vulnerability climate change, identifying thresholds, quantifying uncertainty impacts. knowledge aid focusing management, policy conservation actions direct resources, rapid action, biodiversity targets these reefs global priority. As reassemble into novel or different configurations, determining winners losers be meeting landmark goals.

Язык: Английский

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This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates

Cambridge Prisms Extinction, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Biodiversity is in rapid decline, but the extent of loss not well resolved for poorly known groups. We estimate number extinctions Australian non-marine invertebrates since European colonisation continent. Our analyses use a range approaches, incorporate stated uncertainties and recognise explicit caveats. plausible bounds species, two approaches estimating extinction rate, Monte Carlo simulations to select combinations projected distributions from these variables. conclude that 9,111 (plausible 1,465 56,828) species have become extinct over this 236-year period. These estimates dwarf formally recognised (10 species) single invertebrate listed as under legislation. predict 39–148 will 2024. This inconsistent with recent pledge by government prevent all extinctions. high rate largely consequence pervasive taxonomic biases community concern conservation investment. Those characteristics also make it challenging reduce loss, there uncertainty about which are at most risk. outline responses likelihood further

Язык: Английский

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