Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Дек. 5, 2024
Язык: Английский
Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(3), С. 242 - 246
Опубликована: Март 1, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
11
Australian Forestry, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 9
Опубликована: Март 19, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Апрель 20, 2025
Abstract Cyanobacterial blooms increasingly threaten vital freshwater ecosystems, with harmful impacts exacerbated by climate change and eutrophication. Despite extensive research on temperature nutrient effects, our predictive capacity remains limited. We propose that this limitation stems from insufficient understanding of how biotic interactions modify cyanobacterial responses to abiotic conditions. Using five years daily monitoring data a eutrophic lake state-space reconstruction modelling, we show co-occurring plankton species fundamentally reshape the realised niche bloom-forming cyanobacteria. Biotic shift thresholds up 13°C phosphorus requirements over 20 μg/L—effects substantial enough determine whether environmental conditions support or prevent in Microcystis Dolichospermum . Grazing inhibits bloom formation across taxa, while facilitation other phytoplankton may allow at unexpectedly low temperatures phosphate concentrations. These findings address fundamental gap—how shape niches natural systems—while offering practical insights for management. By integrating into programs models, can improve forecasting accuracy develop targeted interventions complement traditional control approaches. parallel recent advances ecology suggesting role mediating species’ change.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 31(5)
Опубликована: Май 1, 2025
ABSTRACT Small coastal islands serve as replicated units of space that are useful for studying community assembly. Using a unique database holding information on comprehensive vegetation surveys > 840 small fringing the whole continent Australia, we investigated extent to which conditions will change plants Australia's over next 80 years in terms their temperature envelopes and inferred changes vapour pressure deficit (VPD). We found ~40% island plant populations experience mean annual temperatures beyond current envelope. However, defined by VPD extreme monthly unlikely be exceeded, highlighting islands' potential act climate refugia. Large species with slow life histories poor dispersal traits were most likely warmer temperatures, although this proved driven correlations these latitude (closer equator) smaller range sizes. no evidence warm edge extinction or poleward migration across response 0.5° warming since year 2000. These results have applications monitoring conservation efforts under fragmented habitats everywhere.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)
Опубликована: Май 21, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Global Ecology and Conservation, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. e03643 - e03643
Опубликована: Май 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 361, С. 110328 - 110328
Опубликована: Ноя. 28, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Март 17, 2024
Abstract The proliferation of high-dimensional data in ecology and evolutionary biology raise the promise statistical machine learning models that are highly predictive interpretable. However, commonly burdened with an inherent trade-off: in-sample prediction outcomes will improve as additional predictors included model, but this may come at cost poor accuracy limited generalizability for future or unsampled observations (out-of-sample prediction). To confront problem overfitting, sparse can focus on key by correctly placing low weight unimportant variables. We competed nine methods to quantify their performance variable selection using simulated different sample sizes, numbers predictors, strengths effects. Overfitting was typical many simulation scenarios. Despite this, out-of-sample converged true target simulations more observations, larger causal effects, fewer predictors. Accurate support process-based understanding be unattainable realistic sampling schemes evolution. use our analyses characterize attributes which is possible, illustrate how some achieve while mitigating extent overfitting.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Окт. 13, 2024
Summary As natural ecosystems experience unprecedented human-made degradation, it is urgent to deliver quantitative anticipatory forecasts of biodiversity change and identify relevant biotic abiotic predictors. Forecasting has been challenging due their complexity, chaotic nonlinear nature the availability adequate data. Here, we use four years daily abundance a complex lake planktonic ecosystem its environment model forecast metrics. Using state-of-the-art equation-free modelling technique, community richness turnover with proficiency greater than constant predictor several generations ahead (30 days). Short-term improve substantially using predictors (i.e., autoregressive term or richness). Long-term require more set variables interactions), depends strongly on including such as water temperature. Depending horizon, can interact nonlinearly synergistically, enhancing each other’s effects Our findings showcase challenges forecasting in stress importance monitoring focal anticipate undesired changes.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Дек. 5, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0