Global potential distribution prediction of Xanthium italicum based on Maxent model

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 16, 2021

Alien invasive plants pose a threat to global biodiversity and the cost of control continues rise. Early detection prediction potential risk areas are essential minimize ecological socio-economic costs. In this study, Maxent model was used predict current future climatic conditions estimate distribution plant Xanthium italicum. The consists 366 occurrence records (10 repeats, 75% for calibration 25% verification) 10 climate variables. According forecast, X. italicum expected shrink in scenarios with human intervention, which may be mainly caused by rise average annual temperature. ROC curve showed that AUC values training set test 0.965 0.906, respectively, indicating result excellent. contribution rates mean temperature, monthly diurnal temperature range, standard deviation seasonal change precipitation geographical were 65.3%, 11.2%, 9.0%, 7.7%, total rate 93.2%. These four variables dominant environmental factors affecting italicum, influence is greater than precipitation. Through our study on under conditions, it has all countries strengthen its monitoring, prevention control, including early warning.

Язык: Английский

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The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

BMC Plant Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 11, 2024

Abstract Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future distribution, have been extensively developed investigate impacts of change on assess suitability. In West Asia essential oils T. daenensis kotschyanus include high amounts thymol carvacrol are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed model these Thymus in Iran using MaxEnt under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5) years 2050 2070. The findings revealed that mean temperature warmest quarter (bio10) most significant variable affecting . case , slope percentage primary influencing factor. modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, indicated all Area Under Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based projections, mentioned expected undergo negative area changes coming years. These results can serve valuable achievement developing adaptive management strategies enhancing protection sustainable utilization context global change.

Язык: Английский

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Climate and biodiversity change constrain the flow of cultural ecosystem services to people: A case study modeling birding across Africa under future climate scenarios

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 919, С. 170872 - 170872

Опубликована: Фев. 12, 2024

Global change is currently impacting ecosystems and their contributions to people (i.e. ecosystem services). These impacts have consequences for societies human well-being, especially in Africa. Historically, efforts focused on assessing global from a social or biophysical perspective, treating them as separate entities. Yet, our understanding of social-ecological systems remains limited, particularly the South, due lack data, tools, approaches accounting ecological aspects services. This relevant cultural services they are less tangible. We use simple indicator important provider multitude services, birding, understand how climate, biodiversity, land will impact across explore emerging tools data can overcome limitations mapping modeling analyzing preferences behavior at large spatiotemporal scales data-poor regions. Leveraging crowdsourced eBird using machine learning techniques we map model recreational birding assess underlying relationships future climate environmental change. show that bird species richness, protected areas, accessibility, max temperature contribute most suitability continent. Further, spatial shifts under three scenarios (SSP126, 370, 585). Models suggest biodiversity increasingly constrain flow related has implications human-nature interactions, development countries, management overall well-being future. More generally, highlight opportunities datasets integrate non-material models thus, enhance well-being.

Язык: Английский

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Tick species diversity and potential distribution alternation of dominant ticks under different climate scenarios in Xinjiang, China

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 18(4), С. e0012108 - e0012108

Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2024

Ticks are a hematophagous parasite and vector of pathogens for numerous human animal diseases significant importance. The expansion tick distribution the increased risk tick-borne due to global climate change necessitates further study spatial trend ticks their potential influencing factors. This constructed dataset species in Xinjiang 60 years based on literature database retrieval historical data collection (January 1963-January 2023). were extracted, corrected, deduplicated. dominant selected analysis using MaxEnt model assess different periods under current BCC-CSM2.MR mode scenarios. results indicated that there eight genera 48 108 cities counties Xinjiang, with Hyalomma asiaticum, Rhipicephalus turanicus, Dermacentor marginatus, Haemaphysalis punctatus being top four species. revealed suitability areas mainly distributed north such as Altay Tacheng Prefecture. Over next periods, medium high suitable within range will expand towards northwest. Additionally, new emerge Altay, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, other local areas. 60-year this provides map preliminary diverse array patterns throughout area. In addition, characteristics future which can provide an instrumental reference monitoring disease prediction not only region but also countries participating Belt Road Initiative.

Язык: Английский

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Does adding community science observations to museum records improve distribution modeling of a rare endemic plant?

Ecosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(3)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2023

Abstract Understanding the ranges of rare and endangered species is central to conserving biodiversity in Anthropocene. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a common powerful tool for analyzing species–environment relationships across geographic space. Although evaluating integral their conservation, this can be difficult when limited data are available. Community science platforms, such as iNaturalist, emerged alternative sources occurrence data. these observations often thought lower quality than those natural history collections, they may potential improving SDMs with few records from collections. Here, we investigate utility iNaturalist developing high‐elevation plant, Telesonix jamesii . Because methods modeling literature, five different techniques were considered, including profile methods, statistical models, machine learning algorithms. The inclusion doubled number usable T. jamesii. We found that random forest (RF) model using ensemble training performed highest any (area under curve = 0.98). then compared performance RF use only combination (herbarium specimens) All heavily relied on climate (mean temperature driest quarter, precipitation warmest quarter), indicating threat continues change. Validation datasets affected fits well. Models herbarium slightly poorer evaluated cross‐validation validated externally This study serve future SDM studies similar limitations.

Язык: Английский

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Analysis of the Potential Distribution of Shoot Blight of Larch in China Based on the Optimized MaxEnt and Biomod2 Ensemble Models

Forests, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(8), С. 1313 - 1313

Опубликована: Июль 27, 2024

Shoot blight of larch caused by Neofusicoccum laricinum (Sawada) Y. Hattori & C. Nakash poses a significant threat to the growth and development plantations is among most devastating diseases forest trees. Its consecutive occurrence can cause serious damage even death host plant. Analyzing geographical distribution patterns shoot in China based on optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) Biomod2 ensemble (EM) models recognizing environmental factors limiting spread this disease could provide reasonable basis for its control. The potential areas were predicted using data variables. area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was employed compare predictive performance MaxEnt models. Our results showed that both had prominent predicting larch, with latter performing slightly better AUC than former. potentially suitable as models, similarly distributed, mainly Northern China, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Northeastern Inner Mongolia. variables significantly identified jackknife method Pearson’s correlation analysis included annual mean temperature, precipitation, precipitation wettest quarter, temperature warmest elevation. This research offers theoretical rationally delineating sites invaded strengthening detection quarantine critical areas, formulating timely effective control measures, establishing conservation measures resources.

Язык: Английский

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Combining local monitoring data and scientific models to prioritize conservation for European ground squirrel and safeguard grassland habitats

Landscape Ecology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 40(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 12, 2025

Promoting grassland habitat networks within agricultural landscapes is essential for supporting biodiversity. However, the characteristics of these are often poorly documented, making it difficult to prioritize conservation strategies and effectively protect grassland-dependent species. We set identify priorities (semi)natural grasslands by assessing network based on a combination monitoring data scientific model output European Ground Squirrel (EGS), keystone specialist, in settings northern Serbia. used spatially explicit model, LARCH, determine current available presence/absence suitability together with Circuitscape better understand those networks. The modeling results was measures each support stable viable EGS metapopulation. identified 15 Our analysis showed that two need no interventions, but most them mix improving quality connections between local populations metapopulation overall. Results revealed areas which spatial adaptation (e.g., restoration corridor development) should be deployed accommodate long-term survival EGS. It might considered stop efforts some abandoned as too poor, resources improve still occupied. findings may guide future sustainable land-use planning intensively farmed landscapes.

Язык: Английский

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Prioritizing conservation of threatened raptor species using synergistic distribution modeling of high potential areas in foothills of Eastern Himalayas, India

Avian Biology Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 28, 2025

Species Distribution Models are widely used to predict single and multiple species distribution based on different environmental parameters concerned. Such a framework often ignores overlapping of associated the same taxon or genus which may lead high-cost conservation for concerned authority. Cost effective management can be practiced by prioritizing areas high suitability, shared one more related species. Here, we proposed concept probable area at least two i.e. Synergistic potential in Assam. Analysis synergistic map showed that average combined all is 3140 km 2 , accounts 1367.63 ( Falco severus + Gyps tenuirostris = 1446.19 Haliaeetus leucoryphys 1404.75 leucoryphus 1251.95 ). We found highly suitable raptors Assam were mostly concentrated Manas Tiger Reserve landscape, Kaziranga-Karbi Anglong landscape Upper Brahmaputra valley. This would definitely help identify prioritize cost efforts.

Язык: Английский

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Risk Assessment of Carbon Stock Loss in Chinese Forests Due to Pine Wood Nematode Invasion

Forests, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(2), С. 315 - 315

Опубликована: Фев. 11, 2025

Chinese forests, particularly the coniferous forest ecosystems represented by pines, play a crucial role in global carbon cycle, significantly contributing to mitigating climate change, regulating regional climates, and maintaining ecological balance. However, pine wilt disease (PWD), caused wood nematode (PWN), has become major threat stocks China. This study evaluates impact of PWN invasion on China using multi-source data an optimized MaxEnt model, analyzes this invasion’s spread trends potential risk areas. The results show that high-suitability area for expanded from 68,000 km2 2002 184,000 2021, with accelerating, especially under warm humid conditions due human activities. China’s increased 111.34 billion tons (tC) 168.05 tC, but also 87 million tC 99 highlighting ongoing storage capacity. further reveals significant differences tree species’ sensitivity PWN, highly sensitive species such as Masson’s black mainly concentrated southeastern coastal regions, while less white larch stronger resistance northern southwestern finding highlights vulnerability high-sensitivity high-risk areas Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, where urgent effective control measures are needed reduce stock losses. To address challenge, recommends strengthening monitoring proposes specific improve management policy interventions, including promoting cross-regional joint control, enhancing early warning systems, utilizing biological measures, encouraging local governments communities actively participate. By collaboration implementing health sustainable development can be ensured, safeguarding forests’ important regulation sequestration change mitigation.

Язык: Английский

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Modeling habitat suitability of endemic plant, Artemisia khorasanica, to improve rangelands conservation and restoration management efforts

Landscape and Ecological Engineering, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 11, 2025

Язык: Английский

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