A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy DOI Creative Commons
Ruarai Tobin, James R. Walker, Robert Moss

и другие.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 15, 2024

Abstract Monitoring the number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds was a critical component Australia’s real-time surveillance strategy for disease. From 2021–2023, we produced short-term forecasts bed occupancy to support public health decision making. In this work, present model forecasting ward and intensive care unit (ICU) occupied by cases. The simulates stochastic progression through system is fit reported counts using an approximate Bayesian method. We do not directly infection dynamics — instead taking independently case incidence as input enabling independent development our from that underlying forecast(s). evaluate performance 21-day ICU across eight states territories between March September 2022, when major waves Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 were occurring throughout country. Forecasts on average biased downwards immediately prior epidemic peaks upwards post-peak. Forecast best jurisdictions with largest population sizes. Our burden weekly national decision-making committees response.

Язык: Английский

Bloodstream Infections in Critical Care Units in England, April 2017 to March 2023: Results from the First Six Years of a National Surveillance Programme DOI Creative Commons

Olivia Conroy,

Andrea Mazzella, Hye-Ran Choi

и другие.

Microorganisms, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(1), С. 183 - 183

Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2025

Patients in critical care units (CCUs) are at an increased risk of bloodstream infections (BSIs), which can be associated with central vascular catheters (CVCs). This study describes BSIs, CVC-BSIs, organism distribution, percentage antimicrobial resistant (AMR) organisms, and case fatality rates (CFRs) over the first six years a voluntary national CCU surveillance programme England. Surveillance data on CVCs, bed-days between 04/2017 03/2023 for adult CCUs were linked to mortality AMR data, crude calculated. The CCU-BSIs CCU-CVC-BSIs stable three (3.6 1.7 per 1000 2019/20), before increasing by 75% 94% 2020/21, respectively, returning near pre-pandemic levels 2022/23. Gram-negative bacteria accounted 50.3% all CCU-BSIs, followed Gram-positive (39.6%) Candida spp. (8.6%). Klebsiella saw increases AMR, whereas other organisms declines or similar levels. overall CFR was 30.2%. BSI incidence remained across period, except increase 2020/21 reverted These provide benchmark give insight into long-term patterns where comparable limited.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Contact Data and Sars-Cov-2: Retrospective Analysis of the Estimated Impact of the First UK Lockdown DOI
Joel Kandiah, Edwin van Leeuwen, Paul Birrell

и другие.

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Why hospital capacity is more complex than bed capacity DOI Open Access
Kamran Abbasi

BMJ, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. q883 - q883

Опубликована: Апрель 18, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
A truth and reconciliation in evidence based medicine DOI Open Access

Kamran Abbasi

BMJ, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. q1648 - q1648

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2024

Have you heard that stem cells can develop into any type of cell in the body?It's a claim that's been "very rigorously disproven," says Charles Murry from University Washington Seattle (doi:10

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
The Impact of Healthcare Pressures on the COVID-19 Hospitalisation Fatality Risk in England DOI Creative Commons
Jonathon Mellor, Owen Jones, Thomas R. Ward

и другие.

Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 8, 2024

Abstract Background As the impact of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic extends into 2023 and beyond, treatment outcomes infected patients continues to evolve. Unlike earlier in there are now further infectious disease pressures placed on hospitals, which influence patient care triage decisions. Methods The manuscript uses individual records linked with associated hospital management information system pressure characteristics attribute COVID-19 hospitalisation fatality risks (HFR) using generalised additive mixed effects models. Results Between 01 September 2022 09 October 2023, risk England was estimated as 12.71% (95% confidence interval (CI) 12.53%, 12.88%). Staff absences had an adjusted odds ratio 1.038 CI 1.017, 1.060) HFR when accounting for characteristics. Interpretation This observational research presents evidence that a range local can have meaningful death from once hospitalised should be accounted reporting estimates. We show both case mix estimates outcomes.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy DOI Creative Commons
Ruarai Tobin, James R. Walker, Robert Moss

и другие.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 15, 2024

Abstract Monitoring the number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds was a critical component Australia’s real-time surveillance strategy for disease. From 2021–2023, we produced short-term forecasts bed occupancy to support public health decision making. In this work, present model forecasting ward and intensive care unit (ICU) occupied by cases. The simulates stochastic progression through system is fit reported counts using an approximate Bayesian method. We do not directly infection dynamics — instead taking independently case incidence as input enabling independent development our from that underlying forecast(s). evaluate performance 21-day ICU across eight states territories between March September 2022, when major waves Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 were occurring throughout country. Forecasts on average biased downwards immediately prior epidemic peaks upwards post-peak. Forecast best jurisdictions with largest population sizes. Our burden weekly national decision-making committees response.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0