Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather

Nature Geoscience, Год журнала: 2014, Номер 7(9), С. 627 - 637

Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2014

Язык: Английский

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More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2016, Номер 6(5), С. 508 - 513

Опубликована: Март 4, 2016

Язык: Английский

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Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall

Reviews of Geophysics, Год журнала: 2014, Номер 52(3), С. 522 - 555

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2014

Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates greatest increases are likely to occur short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading an increase magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines evidence for subdaily intensification due anthropogenic climate change describes our current physical understanding association between atmospheric temperature. We also examine nature, quality, quantity information needed allow society adapt successfully predicted future changes, discuss roles observational modeling studies helping us better understand processes can influence characteristics. conclude by describing types research required produce more thorough relationships local-scale thermodynamic effects, large-scale circulation, intensity.

Язык: Английский

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Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?

Journal of Climate, Год журнала: 2015, Номер 28(17), С. 6938 - 6959

Опубликована: Июль 22, 2015

Abstract Quantile mapping bias correction algorithms are commonly used to correct systematic distributional biases in precipitation outputs from climate models. Although they effective at removing historical relative observations, it has been found that quantile can artificially corrupt future model-projected trends. Previous studies on the modification of trends by have focused mean quantities, with less attention paid extremes. This article investigates extent which modify global model (GCM) and extremes indices. First, a algorithm, delta (QDM), explicitly preserves changes quantiles is presented. QDM compared synthetic data detrended (DQM), designed preserve mean, standard (QM). Next, methods applied phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) daily projections over Canada. Performance assessed based indices results generalized extreme value analysis annual maxima. QM inflate magnitude respect raw GCM, often substantially, as DQM especially QDM. The degree corruption GCM particularly large for long period return values. By 2080s, excess +500% conditions noted some locations 20-yr values, maximum nearing +240% +140%, respectively, whereas never projected exceed +120%.

Язык: Английский

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Global lake responses to climate change

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 1(8), С. 388 - 403

Опубликована: Июль 14, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 7(6), С. 423 - 427

Опубликована: Май 15, 2017

Язык: Английский

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Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2016, Номер 6(9), С. 827 - 835

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2016

Язык: Английский

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A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Год журнала: 2013, Номер 5(1), С. 113 - 128

Опубликована: Сен. 30, 2013

Climate and weather variables such as rainfall, temperature, pressure are indicators for hazards tropical cyclones, floods, fires. The impact of these events can be due to a single variable being in an extreme state, but more often it is the result combination not all which necessarily extreme. Here, or that lead referred compound event. Any given event will depend upon nature number physical variables, range spatial temporal scales, strength dependence between processes, perspective stakeholder who defines impact. Modeling large, complex, interdisciplinary undertaking. To facilitate this task we propose use influence diagrams defining, mapping, analyzing, modeling, communicating risk Ultimately, greater appreciation further insight changed on how risks associated with climate‐related hazards. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:113–128. doi: 10.1002/wcc.252 This article categorized under: Models > Knowledge Generation Assessing Impacts Representing Uncertainty

Язык: Английский

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Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 9(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 5, 2019

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such occur in a warmer world however less well established, and combined effect changes frequency on total amount rain falling as much explored, spite potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations climate model simulations document strong increases frequencies occurring decadal timescales. Based find that from these intense almost doubles per degree warming, mainly due frequency, while are relatively weak, accordance previous studies. This shift towards stronger seen models, strength - hence rareness event. results, project if historical trends continue, most observed today likely double occurrence for each further Changes this magnitude dramatically than more widely communicated mean precipitation.

Язык: Английский

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Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 372(1723), С. 20160135 - 20160135

Опубликована: Май 8, 2017

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity frequency over recent decades. These changes been linked human-induced change, while the degree which change impacts an individual event (ECE) is more difficult quantify. Rapid progress attribution has recently made through improved understanding of observed simulated variability, methods for advances numerical modelling. Attribution events stronger compared with other types, notably those related hydrological cycle. Recent ECEs, both observations their representation state-of-the-art models, open new opportunities assessing effect on human natural systems. Improved spatial resolution global models statistical dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate temporal scales. Together continued development Earth System Models simulate biogeochemical cycles interactions biosphere increasing complexity, these make it possible develop a mechanistic how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning adaptation capabilities. Limitations observational network, physical system parameters even so long-term ecological monitoring, hampered bio-physical across range New modulate structure arise from better scientific coupled technological observing systems instrumentation. This article part themed issue ‘Behavioural, evolutionary responses events’.

Язык: Английский

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