International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2017,
Номер
39(9), С. 3786 - 3818
Опубликована: Авг. 18, 2017
Temporal
variability
is
an
important
feature
of
climate,
comprising
systematic
variations
such
as
the
annual
cycle,
well
residual
temporal
short‐term
variations,
spells
and
from
interannual
to
long‐term
trends.
The
EU‐COST
Action
VALUE
developed
a
comprehensive
framework
evaluate
downscaling
methods.
Here
we
present
evaluation
perfect
predictor
experiment
for
variability.
Overall,
behaviour
different
approaches
turned
out
be
expected
their
structure
implementation.
chosen
regional
climate
model
adds
value
reanalysis
data
most
considered
aspects,
all
seasons
both
temperature
precipitation.
Bias
correction
methods
do
not
directly
modify
apart
cycle.
However,
wet
day
corrections
substantially
improve
transition
probabilities
spell
length
distributions,
whereas
in
some
cases
deteriorated
by
quantile
mapping.
performance
prognosis
(PP)
statistical
varies
strongly
aspect
method
method,
depends
on
choice.
Unconditional
weather
generators
tend
perform
aspects
they
have
been
calibrated
for,
but
underrepresent
long
Long‐term
trends
driving
are
essentially
unchanged
bias
If
precipitation
simulated
model,
further
deteriorates
these
PP
simulate
predictors.
Climate Dynamics,
Год журнала:
2017,
Номер
50(1-2), С. 31 - 49
Опубликована: Март 25, 2017
Most
bias
correction
algorithms
used
in
climatology,
for
example
quantile
mapping,
are
applied
to
univariate
time
series.
They
neglect
the
dependence
between
different
variables.
Those
that
multivariate
often
correct
only
limited
measures
of
joint
dependence,
such
as
Pearson
or
Spearman
rank
correlation.
Here,
an
image
processing
technique
designed
transfer
colour
information
from
one
another—the
N-dimensional
probability
density
function
transform—is
adapted
use
a
algorithm
(MBCn)
climate
model
projections/predictions
multiple
MBCn
is
generalization
mapping
transfers
all
aspects
observed
continuous
distribution
corresponding
variables
model.
When
projections,
changes
quantiles
each
variable
historical
and
projection
period
also
preserved.
The
demonstrated
on
three
case
studies.
First,
method
with
characteristics
mimic
problem.
Second,
suite
3-hourly
surface
meteorological
Canadian
Centre
Climate
Modelling
Analysis
Regional
Model
(CanRCM4)
across
North
American
domain.
Components
Forest
Fire
Weather
Index
(FWI)
System,
complicated
set
indices
characterizes
risk
wildfire,
then
calculated
verified
against
values.
Third,
biases
spatial
structure
CanRCM4
precipitation
fields.
Results
compared
algorithm,
which
neglects
variables,
two
algorithms,
corrects
form
inter-variable
correlation
structure.
outperforms
these
alternatives,
by
large
margin,
particularly
annual
maxima
FWI
spatiotemporal
autocorrelation
Global
warming
is
leading
to
increased
heat
stress
in
many
regions
around
the
world.
An
extensive
number
of
indicators
(HSIs)
has
been
developed
measure
associated
impacts
on
human
health.
Here
we
calculate
eight
HSIs
for
global
climate
models
participating
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
6
(CMIP6).
We
compare
their
future
trends
as
function
mean
temperature,
with
particular
focus
highly
populated
regions.
All
analyzed
increase
significantly
(p
<
0.01)
all
considered
Moreover,
different
reveal
a
substantial
spread
ranging
from
close
rate
temperature
up
an
amplification
more
than
factor
two.
Trends
change
considerably
when
normalizing
by
accounting
scales
which
they
are
defined,
but
large
and
strong
remain.
Consistently,
exceedances
impact-relevant
thresholds
strongly
increasing
globally,
including
several
densely
regions,
also
show
across
selected
HSIs.
The
highest
exceedance
rates
vary
threshold
levels,
suggesting
that
indicator
both
differences
trend
magnitude
definition
levels.
These
results
highlight
importance
choosing
appropriate
respective
impact
under
consideration.
Additionally,
further
validation
regarding
capability
quantify
health
regional-to-global
would
be
great
value
assessing
reliably.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Март 1, 2023
Previous
projections
show
consistent
increases
in
river
flows
of
Asian
Water
Towers
under
future
climate
change.
Here
we
find
non-monotonic
changes
for
seven
major
rivers
originating
from
the
Tibetan
Plateau
at
warming
levels
1.5
°C,
2.0
and
3.0
°C
based
on
an
observation-constrained
hydrological
model.
The
annual
mean
streamflow
level
decreases
by
0.1-3.2%
relative
to
present-day
condition,
1.5-12%
level.
shifting
Yellow,
Yangtze,
Brahmaputra,
Ganges
are
mostly
influenced
projected
rainfall,
but
those
Mekong,
Salween,
Indus
dictated
snowmelt
glacier
melt.
Reduced
a
moderately
warmed
threaten
water
security
riparian
countries,
while
elevated
flood
risks
expected
with
further
temperature
over
Plateau.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
25(1), С. 157 - 181
Опубликована: Янв. 8, 2025
Abstract.
Aviation
contributes
to
global
emissions
of
carbon
dioxide,
aerosol
particles,
water
vapor
(WV),
and
other
compounds.
WV
promotes
the
formation
condensation
trails
(contrails),
which
are
known
for
their
net
warming
effect
on
climate.
Contrail
is
often
estimated
using
Schmidt–Appleman
criterion
(SAc)
together
with
meteorological
data
from
European
Centre
Medium-Range
Weather
Forecasts
(ECMWF)
ERA5
atmospheric
reanalysis
model.
We
compare
output
temperature
relative
humidity
in
upper
troposphere
lower
stratosphere
5
years
In-service
Aircraft
a
Global
Observing
System
(IAGOS)
observations
over
North
Atlantic.
Good
agreement
was
found
fields,
maximum
bias
−0.4
K
(200
hPa
level),
while
larger
biases
were
up
−5.5
%
(250
level).
Using
original
data,
conditions
prone
contrail
occurred
50.3
7.9
time
non-persistent
persistent
contrails,
respectively,
44.0
12.1
flagged
IAGOS
data.
propose
multivariate
quantile
mapping
(QM)
correction
remove
systematic
by
post-processing
fields
respect
formation.
The
QM
applied
post-process
reducing
less
than
0.1
−1.5
%,
resulting
44
10.9
points
now
being
formation,
respectively.
Our
generalizes
well
compared
observations.
How
it
outside
regions
remains
be
investigated.
Water,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
17(2), С. 282 - 282
Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2025
Identifying
preferential
paths
for
groundwater
flow
is
one
of
the
basics
understanding
aquifer
systems.
Shallow
free-surface
aquifers
often
have
directions
(locally)
similar
to
those
their
surface
counterparts,
especially
if
and
bodies
are
directly
connected.
This
work
proposes
a
novel
simple
framework
improve
identification
Preferential
Groundwater
Networks
in
aquifers.
possible
by
proposing
quantile
mapping
procedure
borrowed
from
stochastic
hydrology,
usually
employed
adjust
rainfall
simulations
(for
example,
achieved
via
climate
models)
upon
available
gauge-based
data.
well-known
applied
redistribute
bottom
elevation
real
case
study
Lombardy,
Northern
Italy.
The
result
spatial
redistribution
quantiles
that
leads
surfaces
carved
with
spatially
consistent
river
network.
way,
redistributed
mimic
but
elevations
slopes
far
gentler
as
they
were
previously
simulated
borehole
data
information.
Furthermore,
errors
reframing
discrepancy
variogram
structures
before
after
not
dramatically
dissimilar.
Hydrology and earth system sciences,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
23(3), С. 1339 - 1354
Опубликована: Март 11, 2019
Abstract.
Alpine
catchments
show
a
high
sensitivity
to
climate
variation
as
they
include
the
elevation
range
of
snow
line.
Therefore,
correct
representation
variables
and
their
interdependence
is
crucial
when
describing
or
predicting
hydrological
processes.
When
using
model
simulations
in
impact
studies,
forcing
meteorological
data
are
usually
downscaled
bias
corrected,
most
often
by
univariate
approaches
such
quantile
mapping
individual
variables,
neglecting
relationships
that
exist
between
variables.
In
this
study
we
test
hypothesis
explicit
consideration
relation
air
temperature
precipitation
will
affect
modelling
snow-dominated
mountain
environment.
Glacio-hydrological
were
performed
for
two
partly
glacierized
alpine
recently
developed
multivariate
correction
method
post-process
EURO-CORDEX
regional
outputs
1976
2099.
These
compared
those
obtained
common
correction.
As
both
methods
each
variable's
distribution
same
way,
marginal
distributions
no
differences.
Yet,
regarding
temperature,
clear
differences
notable
studied
catchments.
Simultaneous
based
on
approach
led
more
below
temperatures
0
∘C
therefore
simulated
snowfall
than
with
approach.
This
difference
translated
considerable
consequences
responses
The
bias-correction-forced
showed
distinctly
different
results
projected
cover
characteristics,
snowmelt-driven
streamflow
components,
expected
glacier
disappearance
dates.
all
aspects
–
fraction
above
∘C,
water
equivalents,
volumes,
regime
resulting
from
multivariate-corrected
corresponded
better
reference
Differences
total
due
may
be
considered
negligible
given
generally
large
spread
projections,
but
systematic
seasonally
delayed
components
snowmelt
particular
matter
planning
perspective.
While
does
not
allow
conclusive
evidence
preferable,
it
clearly
demonstrates
incorporating
ignoring
inter-variable
can
conclusions
drawn
change
studies
environments.
