Justifying Dissent

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 138(3), С. 1403 - 1451

Опубликована: Янв. 22, 2023

Abstract Dissent plays an important role in any society, but dissenters are often silenced through social sanctions. Beyond their persuasive effects, rationales providing arguments supporting dissenters’ causes can increase the public expression of dissent by a “social cover” for voicing otherwise stigmatized positions. Motivated simple theoretical framework, we experimentally show that liberals more willing to post tweet opposing movement defund police, seen as less prejudiced, and face lower sanctions when implies they had first read credible scientific evidence position. Analogous experiments with conservatives demonstrate same mechanisms facilitate anti-immigrant expression. Our findings highlight both power limitations enabling shed light on phenomena such movements, political correctness, propaganda, antiminority behavior.

Язык: Английский

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Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 138(2), С. 955 - 1000

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2023

Abstract We study learning via shared news. Each period agents receive the same quantity and quality of firsthand information can share it with friends. Some friends (possibly few) selectively, generating heterogeneous news diets across agents. Agents are aware selective sharing update beliefs by Bayes’s rule. Contrary to standard results, we show that diverge in this environment, leading polarization. This requires (i) hold misperceptions (even minor) about friends’ (ii) is sufficiently low. Polarization worsen when agents’ friend networks expand. When becomes large, opposite extreme beliefs, resulting severe find aggregators curb polarization caused sharing. Our results without media bias or fake news, so eliminating these not sufficient reduce included, lead but only through misperceived apply our theory shed light on public opinion climate change United States.

Язык: Английский

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Political Social Learning: Short-Term Memory and Cycles of Polarization

American Economic Review, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 115(2), С. 635 - 659

Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2025

This paper investigates the effect of voters’ short-term memory on political outcomes by considering politics as a collective learning process. We find that may lead to cycles polarization and consensus across parties’ platforms. Following periods party consensus, implies there is little variation in data therefore limited information about true state world. turn allows parties further their own interests hence polarize offering different policies. In contrast, turnover involve sufficient voters be confident what correct policy is, forcing both offer this policy. (JEL D72, D83, E61)

Язык: Английский

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Sharing News Left and Right: Frictions and Misinformation on Twitter

The Economic Journal, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 134(662), С. 2391 - 2417

Опубликована: Апрель 9, 2024

Abstract On 20 October 2020, prior to the US presidential election, Twitter modified its user interface for sharing social media posts. In an effort reduce spread of misinformation on platform, new nudged users be thoughtful about content they were sharing. Using data over 160,000 tweets by news outlets, we show that this policy significantly reduced sharing, but reductions varied heterogeneously political slant: fell more left-wing outlets relative right-wing outlets. Examining activity news-sharing users, find conservatives less responsive Twitter’s intervention. Lastly, using web traffic data, document visits outlets’ websites.

Язык: Английский

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Knowledge Evolution at the Onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic 

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 138(2), С. 703 - 767

Опубликована: Март 2, 2023

Abstract We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences assess how televised debates contribute this process. Our include 253,000 observations. compare consistency between intention choice respondents surveyed at different points before, then again after, election, show that 17% 29% voters make up their mind during final two months campaigns. Changes are concomitant shifts issues find most important beliefs about candidates, they generate sizable swings shares. In contrast, remain remarkably stable throughout campaign. Finally, we an event estimate impact TV debates, which candidates themselves communicate with voters, shocks such as natural technological disasters which, by occur independently do not any effect either type on formation, suggesting information received campaign other sources media, political activists, citizens is more impactful.

Язык: Английский

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Curtailing False News, Amplifying Truth

SSRN Electronic Journal, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

We develop a comprehensive framework to assess policy measures aimed at curbing false news dissemination on social media. A randomized experiment Twitter during the 2022 U.S. mid-term elections evaluates such policies as priming awareness of misinformation, fact-checking, confirmation clicks, and prompting careful consideration content. Priming is most effective in reducing sharing while increasing true model decisions, motivated by persuasion, partisan signaling, reputation concerns, predicts that affect through three channels: (i) changing perceived veracity partisanship content, (ii) raising salience reputation, (iii) frictions. Structural estimation shows all impact via cost friction. Affecting plays negligible role mechanism policies, including fact-checking. The intervention performs best enhancing with minimal added

Язык: Английский

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Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes

American Economic Journal Applied Economics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 17(1), С. 337 - 368

Опубликована: Дек. 31, 2024

This paper investigates the effect of media coverage on immigration attitudes. It combines data in French television with individual panel from 2013 to 2017 that records respondents' preferred channel and attitudes toward immigration. The analysis focuses within-individual variations over time, addressing ideological self-selection into channels. We find increased polarizes attitudes, initially moderate individuals becoming more likely report extremely positive negative polarization is mainly driven by an increase salience immigration, which reactivates preexisting prejudices, rather than persuasion effects biased news consumption. (JEL D83, D91, J15, J18, L82)

Язык: Английский

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Social Media and Newsroom Production Decisions

SSRN Electronic Journal, Год журнала: 2020, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2020

Social media are increasingly influencing society and politics, despite the fact that legacy remain most consumed source of news. In this paper, we study propagation information from social to mainstream media, investigate whether news editors' editorial decisions influenced by popularity stories on media. To do so, build a novel dataset including around 70% all tweets produced in French between August 2018 July 2019 content published online 200 outlets. We then develop algorithms identify link events isolate causal impact popularity, rely structure Twitter network propose new instrument based interaction measures user centrality "social pressure" at time event. show story increases coverage same This effect varies depending outlets' characteristics, particular they use paywall. Finally, consumers' reaction surge popularity. Our findings shed light production digital age welfare effects

Язык: Английский

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How rational inference about authority debunking can curtail, sustain, or spread belief polarization

PNAS Nexus, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(10)

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2024

Abstract In polarized societies, divided subgroups of people have different perspectives on a range topics. Aiming to reduce polarization, authorities may use debunking lend support one perspective over another. Debunking by gives all observers shared information, which could disagreement. practice, however, no effect or even contribute further polarization beliefs. We developed cognitively inspired model observers’ rational inferences from an authority’s debunking. After observing each attempt, simulated simultaneously update their beliefs about the underlying debunked claims and motives, using intuitive causal decision-making process. varied prior uncertainty systematically. Simulations generated outcomes, belief convergence (less common) persistent divergence (more common). many simulations, who initially held authority later acquired biases commitment truth. These constrained influence new topics, making it possible for spread. discuss implications with respect elections.

Язык: Английский

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