Global Ecology and Conservation,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
22, С. e00886 - e00886
Опубликована: Дек. 16, 2019
Scenario-based
modelling
is
a
powerful
tool
to
describe
relationships
between
plausible
trajectories
of
drivers,
possible
policy
interventions,
and
impacts
on
biodiversity
ecosystem
services.
Model
inter-comparisons
are
key
in
quantifying
uncertainties
identifying
avenues
for
model
improvement
but
have
been
missing
among
the
global
services
communities.
The
scenario-based
inter-model
comparison
(BES-SIM)
aims
fill
this
gap.
We
used
land-use
climate
projections
simulate
future
terrestrial
using
variety
models
range
harmonized
metrics.
goal
paper
reflect
steps
taken
BES-SIM,
identify
remaining
methodological
challenges,
suggest
pathways
improvement.
identified
five
major
groups
challenges;
need
to:
1)
better
account
role
nature
human
development
storylines;
2)
improve
representation
drivers
scenarios
by
increasing
resolution
(temporal,
spatial
thematic)
as
driver
change
including
additional
relevant
drivers;
3)
explicitly
integrate
species-
trait-level
models;
4)
expand
coverage
multiple
dimensions
services;
finally,
5)
incorporate
time-series
or
one-off
historical
data
calibration
validation
models.
Addressing
these
challenges
would
allow
more
integrated
services,
thereby
improving
their
relevance
supporting
interlinked
international
conservation
sustainable
agendas.
Ecology and Evolution,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
15(3)
Опубликована: Март 1, 2025
ABSTRACT
Ongoing
ecosystem
change
and
biodiversity
decline
across
the
Afrotropics
call
for
tools
to
monitor
state
of
or
elements
extensive
spatial
temporal
scales.
We
assessed
relationships
in
co‐occurrence
patterns
between
great
apes
other
medium
large‐bodied
mammals
evaluate
whether
ape
abundance
serves
as
a
proxy
mammal
diversity
broad
used
camera
trap
footage
recorded
at
22
research
sites,
each
known
harbor
population
chimpanzees,
some
additionally
gorillas,
12
sub‐Saharan
African
countries.
From
~350,000
1‐min
videos
2010
2016,
we
estimated
mammalian
community
metrics,
including
species
richness,
Shannon
diversity,
mean
animal
mass.
then
fitted
Bayesian
Regression
Models
assess
potential
detection
rates
(as
abundance)
these
metrics.
included
site‐level
protection
status,
human
footprint,
precipitation
variance
control
variables.
found
that
species,
well
mass
were
largely
positive.
In
contrast,
rate
richness
less
clear
differed
according
site
impact
context.
no
association
diversity.
Our
findings
suggest
chimpanzees
hold
indicators
specific
communities,
especially
population‐level
composition‐related
characteristics.
Declines
chimpanzee
populations
may
indicate
associated
declines
sympatric
highlight
need
improved
conservation
interventions.Changes
likely
precede
extirpation
mammals.
Conservation Biology,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
34(5), С. 1271 - 1280
Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2020
Abstract
Land
use
and
hunting
are
2
major
pressures
on
biodiversity
in
the
tropics.
Yet,
their
combined
impacts
have
not
been
systematically
quantified
at
a
large
scale.
We
estimated
effects
of
both
distributions
1884
tropical
mammal
species
by
integrating
species’
range
maps,
detailed
land‐use
maps
(1992
2015),
species‐specific
habitat
preference
data,
pressure
model.
further
identified
areas
where
were
greatest
(hotspots)
least
(coolspots)
to
determine
priority
for
mitigation
or
prevention
pressures.
was
main
driver
reduced
distribution
all
considered.
caused
additional
reductions
large‐bodied
distributions.
Together,
land
41%
(SD
30)
average
(year
2015).
Overlap
between
only
2%
average.
contributed
more
loss
(39%
average)
than
(4%
average).
However,
mammals
29%
average;
hence,
lost
disproportional
amount
area
due
combination
Gran
Chaco,
Atlantic
Forest,
Thailand
had
high
levels
impact
across
(hotspots
loss).
In
contrast,
Amazon
Congo
Basins,
Guianas,
Borneo
relatively
low
(coolspots
Overall,
human
increased
from
1992
2015
corresponding
losses
38%
species.
To
effectively
protect
mammals,
conservation
policies
should
address
simultaneously
because
highly
complementary.
Our
spatially
results
may
support
future
national
global
agendas,
including
design
post‐2020
protected
targets
strategies.
Ecography,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
43(7), С. 954 - 966
Опубликована: Апрель 16, 2020
Habitat
destruction
and
overexploitation
are
the
main
threats
to
biodiversity
where
they
co‐occur,
their
combined
impact
is
often
larger
than
individual
one.
Yet,
detailed
knowledge
of
spatial
footprints
these
lacking,
including
overlap
how
change
over
time.
These
gaps
real
barriers
for
effective
conservation
planning.
Here,
we
develop
a
novel
approach
reconstruct
both
We
combine
satellite‐based
land‐cover
maps,
habitat
suitability
models
hunting
pressure
demonstrate
our
community
mammals
(48
species
>
1
kg)
across
1.1
million
km
2
Gran
Chaco
region,
global
deforestation
hotspot
covering
parts
Argentina,
Bolivia
Paraguay.
This
provides
three
key
insights.
First,
find
that
expanded
considerably
between
1985
2015,
~40%
entire
–
twice
area
affected
by
deforestation.
Second,
increasingly
acted
together
within
ranges
in
(17%
increase
on
average,
±
20%
SD,
cumulative
co‐occurring
465
000
),
suggesting
large
synergistic
effects.
Conversely,
core
areas
high‐quality
habitats
declined
average
38%.
Third,
identified
remaining
priority
northern
central
Chaco,
many
which
outside
protected
network.
also
identify
hotspots
high
threat
impacts
Paraguay
providing
template
threat‐specific
action.
Overall,
findings
suggest
increasing
effects
situation
likely
common
tropical
frontiers.
Our
work
highlights
can
be
traced
space
time
understand
impact,
even
situations
data
sparse.
PLoS ONE,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
15(8), С. e0227163 - e0227163
Опубликована: Авг. 21, 2020
Illegal
hunting
is
a
persistent
problem
in
many
protected
areas,
but
an
overview
of
the
extent
this
and
its
impact
on
wildlife
lacking.
We
reviewed
40
years
(1980–2020)
global
research
to
examine
spatial
distribution
socio-ecological
factors
influencing
population
decline
within
areas
under
illegal
pressure.
From
81
papers
reporting
988
species/site
combinations,
294
mammal
species
were
reported
have
been
illegally
hunted
from
155
across
48
countries.
Research
has
increased
substantially
during
review
period
showed
biases
towards
strictly
African
continent.
Population
declines
most
frequent
countries
with
low
human
development
index,
particularly
strict
for
body
mass
over
100
kg.
Our
results
provide
evidence
that
likely
cause
large-bodied
resource-poor
regardless
area
conservation
status.
Given
growing
pressures
hunting,
investments
people's
additional
efforts
such
as
improving
anti-poaching
strategies
resources
terms
funding
personnel
directed
at
are
priority.
Global Ecology and Conservation,
Год журнала:
2019,
Номер
22, С. e00886 - e00886
Опубликована: Дек. 16, 2019
Scenario-based
modelling
is
a
powerful
tool
to
describe
relationships
between
plausible
trajectories
of
drivers,
possible
policy
interventions,
and
impacts
on
biodiversity
ecosystem
services.
Model
inter-comparisons
are
key
in
quantifying
uncertainties
identifying
avenues
for
model
improvement
but
have
been
missing
among
the
global
services
communities.
The
scenario-based
inter-model
comparison
(BES-SIM)
aims
fill
this
gap.
We
used
land-use
climate
projections
simulate
future
terrestrial
using
variety
models
range
harmonized
metrics.
goal
paper
reflect
steps
taken
BES-SIM,
identify
remaining
methodological
challenges,
suggest
pathways
improvement.
identified
five
major
groups
challenges;
need
to:
1)
better
account
role
nature
human
development
storylines;
2)
improve
representation
drivers
scenarios
by
increasing
resolution
(temporal,
spatial
thematic)
as
driver
change
including
additional
relevant
drivers;
3)
explicitly
integrate
species-
trait-level
models;
4)
expand
coverage
multiple
dimensions
services;
finally,
5)
incorporate
time-series
or
one-off
historical
data
calibration
validation
models.
Addressing
these
challenges
would
allow
more
integrated
services,
thereby
improving
their
relevance
supporting
interlinked
international
conservation
sustainable
agendas.