Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm DOI Creative Commons
Olga Krivorotko,

Mariia Sosnovskaia,

Ivan Vashchenko

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 7(1), С. 30 - 44

Опубликована: Ноя. 27, 2021

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios epidemic spread in New York State (USA), the UK, Novosibirsk region (Russia). Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus transmission rate), initial number infected people, probability being tested depend on region's demographic geographical features, containment measures introduced; they are calibrated data about COVID-19 interest. At first stage our study, epidemiological (numbers people tested, diagnoses, critical cases, hospitalizations, deaths) for each mentioned regions were analyzed. The characterized terms seasonality, stationarity, dependency spaces, extrapolated using machine learning techniques specify unknown model. second stage, Optuna optimizer based tree Parzen estimation method objective function minimization was applied determine model's parameters. validated with historical 2020. modeled results State, UK have demonstrated that if level testing is preserved, positive cases will remain same during March 2021, while it reduce. Due features (two datasets stationary series 1), forecast precision relatively high but lower new COVID-19.

Язык: Английский

Signal propagation in complex networks DOI
Peng Ji, Jiachen Ye, Yu Mu

и другие.

Physics Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1017, С. 1 - 96

Опубликована: Апрель 5, 2023

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

187
OpenABM-Covid19—An agent-based model for non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 including contact tracing DOI Creative Commons
Robert Hinch, William J. M. Probert, Anel Nurtay

и другие.

PLoS Computational Biology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 17(7), С. e1009146 - e1009146

Опубликована: Июль 12, 2021

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used predict of infection assess impact public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation epidemic including detailed age-stratification realistic networks. By default model is parameterised UK demographics calibrated however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, both manual digital contact tracing, vaccination programmes. It simulate a population 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps formal statistical model-based inference. The code open-source been developed by teams inside outside academia, emphasis testing, documentation, modularity transparency. A key feature its Python R interfaces, which allowed scientists policymakers dynamic packages interventions help compare options suppress COVID-19 epidemic.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

175
The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate DOI Creative Commons
Sebastián Contreras, Jonas Dehning, Matthias Loidolt

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2021

Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, undetected spreaders, who strongly contribute hidden infection chains. Here, we studied semi-analytical model identified two tipping points between controlled uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number of chains becomes too large be compensated capabilities, (2) new infections exceeds tracing capacity. Both trigger self-accelerating We investigated how these depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that alone insufficient an otherwise unhindered spread implying complementary measures social distancing improved hygiene remain necessary.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

153
Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine DOI Creative Commons
Cliff C. Kerr, Dina Mistry, Robyn M. Stuart

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Май 20, 2021

Abstract Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal economic costs. Here, we demonstrate feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing their known contacts, placing contacts quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, epidemiological data for Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels mask use schools remaining closed, find that high but achievable are sufficient maintain epidemic even under a return full community mobility with low vaccine coverage. The easing restrictions 2020 subsequent scale-up programs September provided real-world validation our predictions. Although show test-trace-quarantine can both theory practice, its success is contingent rates, quarantine compliance, relatively short delays, moderate use. Thus, order transmission strong performance all aspects program required.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

112
AI for science: Predicting infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons

Alexis Pengfei Zhao,

Shuangqi Li, Zhidong Cao

и другие.

Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(2), С. 130 - 146

Опубликована: Март 15, 2024

The global health landscape has been persistently challenged by the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases. Traditional epidemiological models, rooted in early 20th century, have provided foundational insights into disease dynamics. However, intricate web modern interactions exponential growth available data demand more advanced predictive tools. This is where AI for Science (AI4S) comes play, offering a transformative approach integrating artificial intelligence (AI) prediction. paper elucidates pivotal role AI4S enhancing and, some instances, superseding traditional methodologies. By harnessing AI's capabilities, facilitates real-time monitoring, sophisticated integration, modeling with enhanced precision. comparative analysis highlights stark contrast between conventional models innovative strategies enabled AI4S. In essence, represents paradigm shift research. It addresses limitations paves way proactive informed response to future outbreaks. As we navigate complexities challenges, stands as beacon, signifying next phase evolution prediction, characterized increased accuracy, adaptability, efficiency.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

53
Intelligent Agents: Multi-Agent Systems DOI
Alfredo Garro, Alberto Falcone, Matteo Baldoni

и другие.

Elsevier eBooks, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Процитировано

25
The SARS-CoV-2 test scale-up in the USA: an analysis of the number of tests produced and used over time and their modelled impact on the COVID-19 pandemic DOI Creative Commons

Steven Santos,

Matthew A. Humbard,

Anastasia S. Lambrou

и другие.

The Lancet Public Health, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 10(1), С. e47 - e57

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Spatio-temporal simulation of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak using the agent-based modeling approach (case study: Urmia, Iran) DOI Creative Commons
Navid Mahdizadeh Gharakhanlou,

Navid Hooshangi

Informatics in Medicine Unlocked, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 20, С. 100403 - 100403

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2020

The ongoing outbreak of the COVID-19 as current global concern threatens lives many people around world. is highly contagious so that it has infected more than 1,848,439 until April 14, 2020 and killed 117,217 people. main aim this study to develop an agent-based model (ABM) simulates spatio-temporal COVID-19. innovation research investigating impacts various strategies school educational center closures, heeding social distancing, office closures on controlling in Urmia city, Iran. In research, disease was simulated with help ABM all agents considered along their attributes behaviors well environment were described. Besides, transmission between human based SEIRD model, finally, control applied city corresponding actions each strategy implemented ABM. results indicated reduced number by 4.96% week average 49.61% total from February 21 May 10. Heeding distancing 30% 70% March 27, led decrease 5.24% 10.07% week, 31.46% 60.44% total, respectively, if civil servants did not go work, would be decreased 3.30% 5.25% 32.98% 52.48% 10, respectively. As a result majority recommended for situation. advantages modeling are investigate how likely evolve amongst population society also assess disease.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

93
SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from asymptomatic carriers: Results from a mass screening programme in Luxembourg DOI Creative Commons
Paul Wilmes, Jacques Zimmer, Jasmin Schulz

и другие.

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 4, С. 100056 - 100056

Опубликована: Фев. 27, 2021

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

90
Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state DOI Creative Commons
Matthew Abueg, Robert Hinch, Neo Wu

и другие.

npj Digital Medicine, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Март 12, 2021

Abstract Contact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple Google’s Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties explore how exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19 disease spread under various adoption, compliance, mobility scenarios. a model 15% participation, found that notification could reduce infections deaths by approximately 8% 6% effectively complement traditional contact tracing. We believe can provide health authorities beyond guidance suppress the COVID-19.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

84