Real-time forecasting of COVID-19-related hospital strain in France using a non-Markovian mechanistic model DOI Creative Commons
Alexander Massey, Corentin Boennec, Claudia Ximena Restrepo‐Ortiz

и другие.

PLoS Computational Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 20(5), С. e1012124 - e1012124

Опубликована: Май 17, 2024

Projects such as the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub publish forecasts on national level for new deaths, cases, and hospital admissions, but not direct measurements of strain like critical care bed occupancy at sub-national level, which is particular interest to health professionals planning purposes. We present a French framework forecasting based non-Markovian compartmental model, its associated online visualisation tool retrospective evaluation real-time it provided from January December 2021 by comparing three baselines derived standard statistical methods (a naive auto-regression, an ensemble exponential smoothing ARIMA). In terms median absolute error unit two-week horizon, our model only outperformed baseline 4 out 14 geographical units underperformed compared 5 them 90% confidence ( n = 38). However, same week was never statistically any despite outperforming 10 times spanning 7 units. This implies modest utility longer horizons may justify application models in context hospital-strain surveillance future pandemics.

Язык: Английский

SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, kinetics, and evolution: A narrative review DOI Creative Commons
Samuel Alizon, Mircea T. Sofonea

Virulence, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 8, 2025

Since winter 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has emerged, spread, and evolved all around the globe. We explore 4 y of evolutionary epidemiology this virus, ranging from applied public health challenges to more conceptual biology perspectives. Through review, we first present spread lethality infections it causes, starting its emergence in Wuhan (China) initial epidemics world, compare virus other betacoronaviruses, focus on airborne transmission, containment strategies ("zero-COVID" vs. "herd immunity"), explain phylogeographical tracking, underline importance natural selection epidemics, mention within-host population dynamics. Finally, discuss how pandemic transformed (or should transform) surveillance prevention viral respiratory identify perspectives for research COVID-19.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Real-time forecasting of COVID-19-related hospital strain in France using a non-Markovian mechanistic model DOI Creative Commons
Alexander Massey, Corentin Boennec, Claudia Ximena Restrepo‐Ortiz

и другие.

PLoS Computational Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 20(5), С. e1012124 - e1012124

Опубликована: Май 17, 2024

Projects such as the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub publish forecasts on national level for new deaths, cases, and hospital admissions, but not direct measurements of strain like critical care bed occupancy at sub-national level, which is particular interest to health professionals planning purposes. We present a French framework forecasting based non-Markovian compartmental model, its associated online visualisation tool retrospective evaluation real-time it provided from January December 2021 by comparing three baselines derived standard statistical methods (a naive auto-regression, an ensemble exponential smoothing ARIMA). In terms median absolute error unit two-week horizon, our model only outperformed baseline 4 out 14 geographical units underperformed compared 5 them 90% confidence ( n = 38). However, same week was never statistically any despite outperforming 10 times spanning 7 units. This implies modest utility longer horizons may justify application models in context hospital-strain surveillance future pandemics.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2