Estimation of end-of-outbreak probabilities in the presence of delayed and incomplete case reporting
Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
292(2039)
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
Towards
the
end
of
an
infectious
disease
outbreak,
when
a
period
has
elapsed
without
new
case
notifications,
key
question
for
public
health
policymakers
is
whether
outbreak
can
be
declared
over.
This
requires
benefits
declaration
(e.g.
relaxation
control
measures)
to
balanced
against
risk
resurgence
in
cases.
To
support
this
decision-making,
mathematical
methods
have
been
developed
quantify
end-of-outbreak
probability.
Here,
we
propose
approach
problem
that
accounts
range
features
real-world
outbreaks,
specifically:
(i)
incomplete
ascertainment,
(ii)
reporting
delays,
(iii)
individual
heterogeneity
transmissibility
and
(iv)
cases
were
imported
or
infected
locally.
We
showcase
our
using
two
studies:
Covid-19
New
Zealand
2020
Ebola
virus
Democratic
Republic
Congo
2018.
In
these
examples,
found
date
estimated
probability
no
future
infections
reached
95%
was
relatively
consistent
across
modelling
assumptions.
suggests
framework
generate
robust
quantitative
estimates
used
by
policy
advisors,
alongside
other
sources
evidence,
inform
declarations.
Язык: Английский
Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases
PLoS Computational Biology,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
20(10), С. e1012520 - e1012520
Опубликована: Окт. 28, 2024
Epidemiological
delays
are
key
quantities
that
inform
public
health
policy
and
clinical
practice.
They
used
as
inputs
for
mathematical
statistical
models,
which
in
turn
can
guide
control
strategies.
In
recent
work,
we
found
censoring,
right
truncation,
dynamical
bias
were
rarely
addressed
correctly
when
estimating
these
biases
large
enough
to
have
knock-on
impacts
across
a
number
of
use
cases.
Here,
formulate
checklist
best
practices
reporting
epidemiological
delays.
We
also
provide
flowchart
practitioners
based
on
their
data.
Our
examples
focused
the
incubation
period
serial
interval
due
importance
outbreak
response
modeling,
but
our
recommendations
applicable
other
The
recommendations,
literature
experience
delay
distributions
during
responses,
help
improve
robustness
utility
reported
estimates
guidance
evaluation
downstream
transmission
models
or
analyses.
Язык: Английский
Identification and attribution of weekly periodic biases in global epidemiological time series data
BMC Research Notes,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
18(1)
Опубликована: Фев. 20, 2025
COVID-19
data
exhibit
various
biases,
not
least
a
significant
weekly
periodic
oscillation
observed
in
case
and
death
from
multiple
countries.
There
has
been
debate
over
whether
this
may
be
attributed
to
socialising
working
patterns,
or
is
due
underlying
biases
the
reporting
process.
We
investigate
these
trends
epidemics
of
cholera,
discuss
possible
origin
oscillations.
present
systematic,
global
characterisation
identify
an
equivalent
bias
current
Haitian
cholera
outbreak.
By
comparing
published
time
series
retrospective
datasets
United
Kingdom
(UK),
we
demonstrate
that
UK
fully
explained
by
testing
processes.
These
conclusions
play
important
role
forecasting
healthcare
demand
determining
suitable
interventions
for
future
infectious
disease
outbreaks.
Язык: Английский
Building in-house capabilities in health agencies and outsourcing to academia or industry: considerations for effective infectious disease modelling
Epidemics,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
unknown, С. 100802 - 100802
Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024
Infectious
disease
models
provide
a
systematic
way
to
estimate
crucial
features
of
epidemic
dynamics
and
explore
different
transmission
control
scenarios.
Given
the
importance
model-based
analysis
in
managing
public
health
crises,
there
has
been
an
increase
post-pandemic
creation
both
academia-driven
modelling
centres,
hubs
consortiums
government-driven
agencies
with
in-house
units
or
teams.
However,
past,
delineation
roles
responsibilities
between
government-
academia-led
groups
often
unclear.
Who
should
perform
which
tasks
when?
This
ambiguity
can
risk
duplicated
work
unaddressed
gaps
analysis.
It
also
raises
questions
about
sustainability
capacity
for
addressing
routine
operational
analytical
needs
while
developing
new
approaches
that
be
tailored
emergencies.
In
sections
below,
we
discuss
factors
could
inform
decisions
where
locate
infectious
activity.
Rather
than
giving
fixed
set
rules,
outlined
key
considerations
trade-offs
taken
into
account
enable
academic
government
activities
complement
each
other
effectively,
turn
refined
as
crises
emerge
future.
Язык: Английский