Modeling Reemergence of Vaccine-Eliminated Infectious Diseases Under Declining Vaccination in the US DOI
Mathew V. Kiang, Kate M. Bubar, Yvonne Maldonado

и другие.

JAMA, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 24, 2025

Importance Widespread childhood vaccination has eliminated many infectious diseases in the US. However, rates are declining, and there ongoing policy debates to reduce vaccine schedule, which may risk reemergence of previously diseases. Objective To estimate number cases complications US under scenarios declining for measles, rubella, poliomyelitis, diphtheria. Design, Setting, Participants A simulation model was used assess importation dynamic spread vaccine-preventable across 50 states District Columbia. The parameterized with data on area-specific estimates demography, population immunity, disease risk. evaluated different over a 25-year period. Inputs current were based 2004-2023 data. Main Outcomes Measures primary outcomes estimated diphtheria secondary infection-related (postmeasles neurological sequelae, congenital rubella syndrome, paralytic hospitalization, death) probability timing an infection reestablish endemicity. Results At state-level rates, predicts measles endemicity (83% simulations; mean time 20.9 years) 851 300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 381 1.3 million cases) 25 years. Under scenario 10% decline measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination, 11.1 UI, 10.1-12.1 million) years, whereas only 5800 3100-19 400 5% increase MMR vaccination. Other unlikely levels If routine declined by 50%, 51.2 49.7-52.5 period, 9.9 6.4-13.0 4.3 4 21.5 197 1-1000 this scenario, 51 200 49 600-52 600 postmeasles 10 700 6700-14 5400 0-26 10.3 hospitalizations 9.9-10.5 hospitalizations), 159 deaths 151 200-164 deaths). In became endemic at 4.9 years 4.3-5.6 18.1 17.0-19.6 years), poliovirus returned about half simulations (56%) 19.6 14.0-24.7 years). There large variation population. Conclusions Relevance Based from modeling study, will frequency size outbreaks infections, eventually leading their return levels. critical threshold returning differ substantially disease, likely be first occur even without improved coverage public health response. These findings support need continue high prevent resurgence

Язык: Английский

Measles: the urgent need for global immunisation and preparedness DOI
Krutika Kuppalli,

Saad B Omer

The Lancet, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Modeling Reemergence of Vaccine-Eliminated Infectious Diseases Under Declining Vaccination in the US DOI
Mathew V. Kiang, Kate M. Bubar, Yvonne Maldonado

и другие.

JAMA, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 24, 2025

Importance Widespread childhood vaccination has eliminated many infectious diseases in the US. However, rates are declining, and there ongoing policy debates to reduce vaccine schedule, which may risk reemergence of previously diseases. Objective To estimate number cases complications US under scenarios declining for measles, rubella, poliomyelitis, diphtheria. Design, Setting, Participants A simulation model was used assess importation dynamic spread vaccine-preventable across 50 states District Columbia. The parameterized with data on area-specific estimates demography, population immunity, disease risk. evaluated different over a 25-year period. Inputs current were based 2004-2023 data. Main Outcomes Measures primary outcomes estimated diphtheria secondary infection-related (postmeasles neurological sequelae, congenital rubella syndrome, paralytic hospitalization, death) probability timing an infection reestablish endemicity. Results At state-level rates, predicts measles endemicity (83% simulations; mean time 20.9 years) 851 300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 381 1.3 million cases) 25 years. Under scenario 10% decline measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination, 11.1 UI, 10.1-12.1 million) years, whereas only 5800 3100-19 400 5% increase MMR vaccination. Other unlikely levels If routine declined by 50%, 51.2 49.7-52.5 period, 9.9 6.4-13.0 4.3 4 21.5 197 1-1000 this scenario, 51 200 49 600-52 600 postmeasles 10 700 6700-14 5400 0-26 10.3 hospitalizations 9.9-10.5 hospitalizations), 159 deaths 151 200-164 deaths). In became endemic at 4.9 years 4.3-5.6 18.1 17.0-19.6 years), poliovirus returned about half simulations (56%) 19.6 14.0-24.7 years). There large variation population. Conclusions Relevance Based from modeling study, will frequency size outbreaks infections, eventually leading their return levels. critical threshold returning differ substantially disease, likely be first occur even without improved coverage public health response. These findings support need continue high prevent resurgence

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0