Integrating Lotka-Volterra dynamics and gravity modeling for regional population forecasting

Frontiers in Built Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 11

Опубликована: Фев. 20, 2025

Introduction Forecasting population dynamics is crucial for effective urban and regional planning. Traditional demographic methods, such as Cohort Component Analysis, often do not capture nonlinear interactions spatial dependencies among regions. To address these limitations, this study integrates Lotka—Volterra prey—predator equations with a probabilistic adaptation of the Gravity model, providing more robust theoretical methodological framework forecasting. Methods We adapt model—originally rooted in ecological theory—by introducing carrying capacities region-specific parameters, then embed model to interregional mobility. This unified approach leverages data migration flows from three major clusters Quebec, Canada, calibrating parameters reflect observed trends. The resulting system was iteratively solved tested using 2021 through 2023. Results combined effectively captured competitive cooperative interactions, revealing how connectivity resource constraints shape long-term growth patterns across Calibrated forecasts aligned well trends, demonstrating framework’s capacity real-world interdependencies flows. Key findings highlight importance prey—predator—like producing stable or shifting equilibria, offering deeper insights into competition, cooperation, sustainability. Discussion By merging modeling principles interaction theories, work underscores added value grounding forecasting well-established constructs. Compared traditional approaches, integrated Lotka–Volterra provides clearer picture populations evolve under spatially linked influences. readily adaptable diverse contexts, potentially enhancing forecast precision guiding policy interventions development, allocation, strategic planning on broader scale.

Язык: Английский

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How the digital economy promotes urban–rural integration through optimizing factor allocation: theoretical mechanisms and evidence from China

Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 9

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2025

The digital economy plays an increasingly crucial role in bridging the gap between urban and rural areas. This study investigates how development of can foster integrated areas by optimizing factor allocation, with emphasis on its potential to narrow urban-rural divide. aims examine impact integration, focusing particularly mediating optimized allocation. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces 2011 2022, we construct indicators for integration. analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects model, effect spatial Durbin model explore evolution Findings suggest that enhances integration both directly indirectly. It contributes indirectly optimizes allocation labor, capital, land, technology, information, further promoting convergence. effects these mechanisms exhibit significant threshold heterogeneity. These results underline importance accelerating mobility as key strategies Policy implications focus enhancing efficiency resource across accelerate balanced development.

Язык: Английский

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Can E‐commerce development improve farmers' incomes? Evidence from prefecture‐level data and the spatial difference‐in‐difference approach

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 24, 2025

Abstract The penetration of E‐commerce into rural areas has created unprecedented opportunities for revitalisation and increased farmers' incomes. While the impact development on income growth been widely discussed, its spatial spillover effects subsequent mechanisms remain insufficiently explored. This study utilises panel data 278 prefecture‐level cities in China employs a difference‐in‐difference model incorporating Durbin to explore contribution incomes, focussing direct associated with characteristics E‐commerce. Results indicate that promotes local exerts positive effect neighbouring cities. significant is achieved through mediating technological innovation capital investment, while industrial structure upgrading found be significantly negative, indicating farmers incapable obtaining digital dividends from emerging economic opportunities. also better increase incomes less developed regions lower digitalisation levels, stronger impetus early stages development.

Язык: Английский

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Household Financial Risk-Taking: Does Digital Infrastructure Matter?

Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 24, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Can Fiscal Support Reduce the Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents? An analysis Based on Heterogeneity and Threshold Effects

Finance research letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 107353 - 107353

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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