Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern
Scientific Reports,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2024
Abstract
The
emergence
of
infectious
diseases
with
pandemic
potential
is
a
major
public
health
threat
worldwide.
World
Health
Organization
reports
that
about
60%
emerging
are
zoonoses,
originating
from
spillover
events.
Although
the
mechanisms
behind
events
remain
unclear,
mathematical
modeling
offers
way
to
understand
intricate
interactions
among
pathogens,
wildlife,
humans,
and
their
shared
environment.
Aiming
at
gaining
insights
into
dynamics
outcome
an
eventual
disease
outbreak
in
population,
we
propose
continuous
time
stochastic
framework.
This
framework
links
animal
reservoirs
human
hosts
simulate
cross-species
transmission.
We
conduct
thorough
analysis
model
followed
by
numerical
experiments
explore
various
scenarios.
results
suggest
although
most
epidemic
outbreaks
caused
novel
zoonotic
pathogens
do
not
persist
rising
number
can
avoid
long-lasting
extinction
lead
unexpected
large
outbreaks.
Hence,
global
efforts
reduce
impacts
should
only
address
post-emergence
control
but
also
need
prevent
pandemics
before
they
established.
Язык: Английский
Decoding mpox: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the transmission and severity parameters of the 2022–2023 global outbreak
BMJ Global Health,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
10(1), С. e016906 - e016906
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
Introduction
The
2022–2023
mpox
outbreak
has
been
the
largest
in
history.
We
aim
to
synthesise
key
epidemiological
parameters
related
dynamics,
transmission,
and
severity
of
(incubation
period,
serial
interval,
generation
time,
infectious
basic
(R0)
effective
(R(t))
reproductive
number,
case
fatality
rate
(CFR)).
Methods
Systematic
review
observational
studies
MEDLINE,
EMBASE
other
sources
up
September
2023
(PROSPERO:
CRD42023404503).
Quality
assessment
using
Joanna
Briggs
Institute
Critical
Appraisal
for
series,
cross-sectional
cohort
studies,
a
designed
quality
questionnaire
mathematical
models.
Meta-analysis
was
performed
random
effects
model.
Results
For
transmissibility
parameters,
we
estimated
pooled
incubation
period
7.60
(95%
CI
7.14
8.10)
days
interval
8.30
6.74
10.23)
days.
One
study
reported
time
12.5
7.5
17.3).
Three
presymptomatic
transmission
27–50%
paired
cases
investigated.
R(t)
varied
between
1.16
3.74
R0
0.006
7.84.
epidemic
peaked
August
2022
Europe
Americas
whereas
continued
African
countries.
CFR
by
continent:
0.19%
0.09%
0.37%)
0.33%
0.15%
0.7%)
Europe.
Africa,
found
that
CFRs
countries
associated
with
group
I
were
higher
(range
17–64%)
than
those
IIb
0–6%).
Conclusion
Pooled
slightly
larger
suggesting
occurs
mostly
postsymptom
onset,
although
can
occur
an
important
proportion
cases.
estimates
geographical
region
linked
clade
I.
Our
results
contribute
better
understanding
development
models
assess
impact
current
future
interventions.
Язык: Английский
Mpox outbreak control indicators used in Ontario, Canada: May 21–December 10, 2022
Journal of Medical Virology,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
95(12)
Опубликована: Дек. 1, 2023
Abstract
Since
May
2022,
over
91
000
cases
of
mpox
have
been
reported
globally
with
the
majority
occurring
among
adult
males
who
identify
as
gay,
bisexual,
or
men
sex
(gbMSM).
Given
rapid
emergence
global
outbreak,
many
public
health
authorities
did
not
established
outbreak
control
indicators
criteria
for
declaring
an
over.
Expert
consensus
in
Ontario,
Canada,
set
thresholds
five
key
follows:
estimated
number
currently
infectious
<
5;
effective
reproductive
1.0;
doubling
time
>
42
days;
weekly
test
positivity
5%;
and
sporadic
non‐gbMSM
(i.e.,
female
pediatric
cases).
Once
all
were
achieved,
a
52‐day
period
based
on
two
incubation
periods
10‐day
reporting
delay
was
employed
to
monitor
indicator
stability.
After
remained
at
expected
levels,
Ontario
declared
December
10,
2022.
Despite
current
low
levels
activity
globally,
some
jurisdictions
may
benefit
from
utilizing
modifying
these
during
future
localized
outbreak.
Язык: Английский
Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory),
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Июнь 4, 2024
Abstract
Understanding
virus
mutations
is
critical
for
shaping
public
health
interventions.
These
lead
to
complex
multi-strain
dynamics
often
underrepresented
in
models.
Aiming
understand
the
factors
influencing
variants’
fitness
and
evolution,
we
explore
several
scenarios
of
spreading
gain
qualitative
insight
into
dictating
which
variants
ultimately
predominate
at
population
level.
To
this
end,
propose
a
two-strain
stochastic
model
that
accounts
asymptomatic
transmission,
mutations,
possibility
disease
import.
We
find
with
milder
symptoms
are
likely
spread
faster
than
those
severe
symptoms.
This
because
can
prompt
affected
individuals
seek
medical
help
earlier,
potentially
leading
quicker
identification
isolation
cases.
However,
or
cases
may
more
widely,
making
it
harder
control
spread.
Therefore,
increased
transmissibility
still
result
higher
hospitalizations
fatalities
due
widespread
infection.
The
proposed
highlights
interplay
between
viral
evolution
transmission
dynamics.
Offering
nuanced
view
variant
spread,
provides
foundation
further
investigation
mitigating
strategies
Язык: Английский
Estimates of mpox effective reproduction number in Spain, April–August 2022
Epidemiology and Infection,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
151
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023
We
analysed
the
transmission
of
human
mpox
virus
in
Spain
by
estimating
effective
reproduction
number
disease
from
official
surveillance
data.
Our
computations
show
that
this
decreased
steadily
after
an
initial
burst
phase,
dropping
below
1
on
July
12,
and
thus
outbreak
was
expected
to
reduce
following
weeks.
Differences
trends
were
found
across
geographical
regions
country
MSM
heterosexual
populations.
Язык: Английский
Monkeypox in Europe: Epidemiology, Risk Factors and Implications for Public Health Actions : A Scoping Review Study
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory),
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2024
Abstract
Background
Monkeypox
(mpox)
is
a
zoonotic
disease
originating
from
the
Congo
Basin
(Clade
I)
and
West
Africa
II).
In
2022,
mpox
spread
to
non-endemic
European
countries,
predominantly
through
human
transmission
associated
with
sexual
contact.
The
outbreak
in
Europe
was
primarily
Clade
IIb
lineage,
which
less
virulent.
World
Health
Organization
(WHO)
declared
this
Public
Emergency
of
International
Concern
(PHEIC)
ended
May
2023
after
decline
cases.
However,
July
2024,
resurgence
more
virulent
I
occurred
Democratic
Republic
(DRC),
leading
WHO
declare
PHEIC
again,
due
risk
global
spread.
Understanding
epidemiology
factors
vital
for
effective
public
health
measures.
Methodology
principal
findings
A
search
conducted
2014
2024
across
PubMed,
Scopus
Embase
identified
38
studies
on
Europe,
were
included
qualitative
analysis.
key
themes
factors/
behaviors.
High-risk
behaviors
include
contact
among
men
who
have
sex
(MSM)
multiple
partners,
living
HIV,
frequent
travel
endemic
regions.
Conclusions
significance
With
no
definitive
cure
mpox,
measures
such
as
surveillance,
monitoring,
tracing
are
essential.
Additionally,
encouraging
case-control
crucial
exploring
other
potential
design
behavioral
interventions,
vaccination
campaigns
awareness
programs
aimed
at
reducing
high-risk
these
populations.
Although
number
cases
did
not
surge
August
proactive
necessary
prevent
further
Язык: Английский
Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
Royal Society Open Science,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
11(10)
Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2024
Understanding
virus
mutations
is
critical
for
shaping
public
health
interventions.
These
lead
to
complex
multi-strain
dynamics
often
under-represented
in
models.
Aiming
understand
the
factors
influencing
variants'
fitness
and
evolution,
we
explore
several
scenarios
of
spreading
gain
qualitative
insight
into
dictating
which
variants
ultimately
predominate
at
population
level.
To
this
end,
propose
a
two-strain
stochastic
model
that
accounts
asymptomatic
transmission,
possibility
disease
import.
We
find
with
milder
symptoms
are
likely
spread
faster
than
those
severe
symptoms.
This
because
can
prompt
affected
individuals
seek
medical
help
earlier,
potentially
leading
quicker
identification
isolation
cases.
However,
or
cases
may
more
widely,
making
it
harder
control
spread.
Therefore,
increased
transmissibility
still
result
higher
hospitalizations
fatalities
due
widespread
infection.
The
proposed
highlights
interplay
between
viral
evolution
transmission
dynamics.
Offering
nuanced
view
variant
spread,
provides
foundation
further
investigation
mitigating
strategies
Язык: Английский