The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation DOI Creative Commons
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian J. Soden, Amy Clement

и другие.

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(19), С. 11275 - 11283

Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2024

Abstract. Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.29 ± 0.04 K from 2022 to 2023. Such a large interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record, with previous instance occurring 1976–1977. However, why such spikes occur unknown, and rapid of 2023 has led concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show climate models are subject only internal variability can generate spikes, but they an uncommon occurrence (p = 1.6 % 0.1 %). when prolonged La Niña immediately precedes El Niño simulations, as occurred nature 1976–1977 2022–2023, become much more common 10.3 0.4 Furthermore, find nearly all simulated 88.5 0.3 %) associated year. Thus, our results underscore importance Niño–Southern Oscillation driving one 2023, without needing invoke anthropogenic forcing, changes atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases or aerosols, explanation.

Язык: Английский

The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation DOI Creative Commons
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian J. Soden, Amy Clement

и другие.

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(19), С. 11275 - 11283

Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2024

Abstract. Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.29 ± 0.04 K from 2022 to 2023. Such a large interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record, with previous instance occurring 1976–1977. However, why such spikes occur unknown, and rapid of 2023 has led concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show climate models are subject only internal variability can generate spikes, but they an uncommon occurrence (p = 1.6 % 0.1 %). when prolonged La Niña immediately precedes El Niño simulations, as occurred nature 1976–1977 2022–2023, become much more common 10.3 0.4 Furthermore, find nearly all simulated 88.5 0.3 %) associated year. Thus, our results underscore importance Niño–Southern Oscillation driving one 2023, without needing invoke anthropogenic forcing, changes atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases or aerosols, explanation.

Язык: Английский

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