Future Climate Projections for Tacna, Peru: Assessing Changes in Temperature and Precipitation
Atmosphere,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
16(2), С. 144 - 144
Опубликована: Янв. 29, 2025
The
Tacna
region,
situated
in
southwestern
Peru,
is
distinguished
by
its
desert
and
Andean
zones,
resulting
significant
climatic
variability.
However,
changes
future
precipitation
temperature
patterns
could
significantly
impact
sectors
such
as
agriculture,
energy,
water
resources.
In
this
context,
research
analyzes
climate
scenarios
of
precipitation,
maximum
(Tmax),
minimum
(Tmin)
Tacna.
For
purpose,
was
divided
into
four
homogeneous
regions
(Coast,
Low
Highlands,
High
Andes,
Plateau)
to
assess
using
CMIP6
models
for
the
SSP1-2.6,
SSP2-4.5,
SSP5-8.5
scenarios.
A
bias
correction
these
applied
Quantile
Delta
Mapping
method
improve
accuracy.
validation
results
showed
better
performance
compared
precipitation.
Regarding
scenario
results,
end
century,
under
scenario,
Tmax
increase
up
+7
°C
while
Tmin
rise
+5
°C,
particularly
Plateau.
Precipitation
projected
decrease
20%
annually
higher
elevations,
albeit
with
considerable
uncertainty;
however,
no
are
expected
seasonal
patterns.
This
study
underscores
importance
robust
projections
formulating
adaptation
strategies
resource
management
infrastructure
planning.
findings
provide
essential
insights
decision-makers
address
challenges
posed
change
vulnerable
southern
Peru.
Язык: Английский
Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models
Journal of Water and Climate Change,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
15(7), С. 3015 - 3032
Опубликована: Май 29, 2024
ABSTRACT
We
studied
the
projections
of
streamflows
under
climate
change
scenarios
in
Upper
Orinoco
River
Basin
by
using
precipitation
from
15
global
and
regional
models
for
period
2020–2099.
For
this
purpose,
we
calibrated
validated
a
hydrological
model
with
very
good
performance.
Our
results
show
that
both
streamflow
have
significant
reduction
RCP8.5
scenario
ranges
5
7%
relation
to
long-term
means
at
end
century.
The
changes
variables
are
not
RCP2.6
scenario.
Moreover,
compute
several
indicators
quantify
alterations
high-,
mid-,
low-range
flows.
suggest
main
future
runoff
would
be
evidenced
mid-range
low
flows,
which
could
increase
around
∼5
∼25%,
respectively.
These
lead
hydrological,
environmental,
ecological
balance
basin.
This
work
provides
information
regarding
possible
effects
on
one
most
important
river
basins
northern
South
America,
is
pivotal
supporting
decision-making
water
supply
social,
productive
sectors.
Язык: Английский