Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models DOI Creative Commons
Hernán Salas, Alejandro Builes‐Jaramillo, Carolina Florian

и другие.

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(7), С. 3015 - 3032

Опубликована: Май 29, 2024

ABSTRACT We studied the projections of streamflows under climate change scenarios in Upper Orinoco River Basin by using precipitation from 15 global and regional models for period 2020–2099. For this purpose, we calibrated validated a hydrological model with very good performance. Our results show that both streamflow have significant reduction RCP8.5 scenario ranges 5 7% relation to long-term means at end century. The changes variables are not RCP2.6 scenario. Moreover, compute several indicators quantify alterations high-, mid-, low-range flows. suggest main future runoff would be evidenced mid-range low flows, which could increase around ∼5 ∼25%, respectively. These lead hydrological, environmental, ecological balance basin. This work provides information regarding possible effects on one most important river basins northern South America, is pivotal supporting decision-making water supply social, productive sectors.

Язык: Английский

Future Climate Projections for Tacna, Peru: Assessing Changes in Temperature and Precipitation DOI Creative Commons
Gustavo De la Cruz, Adrian Huerta,

Pablo Franco-León

и другие.

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(2), С. 144 - 144

Опубликована: Янв. 29, 2025

The Tacna region, situated in southwestern Peru, is distinguished by its desert and Andean zones, resulting significant climatic variability. However, changes future precipitation temperature patterns could significantly impact sectors such as agriculture, energy, water resources. In this context, research analyzes climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) Tacna. For purpose, was divided into four homogeneous regions (Coast, Low Highlands, High Andes, Plateau) to assess using CMIP6 models for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 scenarios. A bias correction these applied Quantile Delta Mapping method improve accuracy. validation results showed better performance compared precipitation. Regarding scenario results, end century, under scenario, Tmax increase up +7 °C while Tmin rise +5 °C, particularly Plateau. Precipitation projected decrease 20% annually higher elevations, albeit with considerable uncertainty; however, no are expected seasonal patterns. This study underscores importance robust projections formulating adaptation strategies resource management infrastructure planning. findings provide essential insights decision-makers address challenges posed change vulnerable southern Peru.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models DOI Creative Commons
Hernán Salas, Alejandro Builes‐Jaramillo, Carolina Florian

и другие.

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(7), С. 3015 - 3032

Опубликована: Май 29, 2024

ABSTRACT We studied the projections of streamflows under climate change scenarios in Upper Orinoco River Basin by using precipitation from 15 global and regional models for period 2020–2099. For this purpose, we calibrated validated a hydrological model with very good performance. Our results show that both streamflow have significant reduction RCP8.5 scenario ranges 5 7% relation to long-term means at end century. The changes variables are not RCP2.6 scenario. Moreover, compute several indicators quantify alterations high-, mid-, low-range flows. suggest main future runoff would be evidenced mid-range low flows, which could increase around ∼5 ∼25%, respectively. These lead hydrological, environmental, ecological balance basin. This work provides information regarding possible effects on one most important river basins northern South America, is pivotal supporting decision-making water supply social, productive sectors.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1