High-resolution assessment of climate change impacts on the surface energy and water balance in the glaciated Naryn River basin, Central Asia
Journal of Environmental Management,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
374, С. 124021 - 124021
Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025
Mountain
regions
of
Central
Asia
are
experiencing
strong
influences
from
climate
change,
with
significant
reductions
in
snow
cover
and
glacial
reserves.
A
comprehensive
assessment
the
potential
consequences
under
worst-case
scenario
is
vital
for
adaptation
measures
throughout
region.
Water
balance
analysis
Naryn
River
basin
was
conducted
baseline
period
1981-2000
including
changes
SSP5-8.5
2077-2096
by
combining
high-resolution
(5
km)
regional
projections
fully
distributed
glacio-hydrological
(1
modeling.
Results
showed
that
complete
degradation
glaciers
increase
evapotranspiration,
overall
runoff
will
decrease
16%,
upper
basins,
reduction
exceed
40%.
The
maximum
water
equivalent
(SWE)
projected
to
17%,
seasonal
peak
SWE
occur
one
month
earlier.
transition
rain
significantly
affect
lower
regions,
increasing
extremes
causing
10-year
recurrence
interval
events
every
3-4
years.
Moreover,
extreme
high
mountainous
areas
due
intensified
snowmelt
increased
rainfall
extremes.
Additionally,
a
gradient
surface
soil
temperature
change
0.1
°C
per
100
m
elevation
gain
observed,
suggesting
snow-albedo
feedback
effect
could
further
amplify
warming,
especially
at
higher
altitudes.
This
study
provides
robust
analytical
framework
assess
complex
responses
mountain
ecosystems
impacts
widespread
application
addressing
challenges
facing
these
critical
regions.
Язык: Английский
Agricultural Drought-Triggering for Anticipatory Action in Papua New Guinea
Water,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(14), С. 2009 - 2009
Опубликована: Июль 15, 2024
Throughout
its
history,
Papua
New
Guinea
(PNG)
has
faced
recurrent
agricultural
droughts,
imposing
considerable
strain
on
both
livelihoods
and
the
economy.
Particularly
severe
droughts
have
been
associated
with
El
Niño
climate
patterns.
During
these
episodes,
PNG
becomes
especially
vulnerable
to
extended
periods
of
aridity
diminished
precipitation.
Historically,
humanitarian
assistance
for
events
primarily
focused
responding
emergencies
after
an
drought
declared
communities
already
impacted.
Here,
we
developed
a
proactive
drought-triggering
method
anticipatory
action
(AA)
in
offer
more
sustainable
cost-effective
approach
address
this
hazard.
Our
AA
uses
weather
forecasts
risk
data
identify
implement
mitigative
actions
before
disaster
occurs.
The
research
details
step-by-step
guide
from
early
warning
implemented
by
Food
Agricultural
Organization
United
Nations
Government
Guinea.
This
preemptive
management
initiative
integrates
combined
index
(CDI)
specific
thresholds
tailored
based
crop
calendars.
Moreover,
CDI
provides
3-month
lead
time
implementing
reduce
impact
drought.
Niño-induced
event
that
began
2023,
was
tested
piloted
first
time.
Язык: Английский