Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action DOI Creative Commons
Pui Man Kam,

Fabio Ciccone,

Chahan M. Kropf

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2024

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) displace millions every year. While TCs pose hardships and threaten lives, their negative impacts can be reduced by anticipatory actions like evacuation humanitarian aid coordination. In addition to weather forecasts, impact forecast enables more effective response providing richer information on the numbers locations of people at risk displacement. We introduce a fully open-source implementation globally consistent regionally calibrated TC-related displacement low computational costs, combining meteorological with population exposure respective vulnerability. present case study TC Yasa which hit Fiji in December 2020. emphasise importance considering uncertainties associated hazard, exposure, vulnerability global uncertainty analysis, reveals considerable spread possible outcomes. Additionally, we perform sensitivity analysis all recorded events from 2017 2020 understand how outcomes depend these uncertain inputs. Our findings suggest that for longer lead times, decision-making should focus uncertainty, while greater emphasis placed local community shortly before landfall. codes implementations are readily transferable other users, hazards, types.

Язык: Английский

Observed changes in rainfall and temperature extreme in Fiji DOI
Philip Sagero, N. V. P. Kiran Kumar, Royford Magiri

и другие.

Australian Geographer, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 23

Опубликована: Март 29, 2025

Understanding trends in rainfall and temperature extremes is critical for evaluating their impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, human livelihoods, health, especially vulnerable regions like Fiji. This study analysed Fiji from 1970–2020 using the Mann-Kendall trend test, Innovative Trend Analysis, Theil-Sen's slope estimator. Results indicated a general decrease annual, seasonal, monthly rainfall, with notable declines months of November, March, July, August, an increase December. Rainfall showed decreasing across most stations, except Nadi, which exhibited increase. Temperature show consistent significant both maximum minimum temperatures, warming rates ranging 0.01–0.05°C per year. revealed trend, increases extreme indices such as hottest day (TXx), warmest night (TNx), warm days (TX90p), alongside decreases cool (TX10p), nights (TN10p), cold spell duration (CSDI). These findings underscore growing challenges climate provide essential data informing adaptation mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Finding mobility in place attachment research: lessons for managed retreat DOI Creative Commons

Robin Willcocks-Musselman,

Julia Baird,

Karen Foster

и другие.

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7

Опубликована: Фев. 11, 2025

Climate change will affect many global landscapes in the future, requiring millions of people to move away from areas at risk flooding, erosion, drought and extreme temperatures. The term managed retreat is increasingly used Global North refer movement infrastructure climate risks. Managed retreat, however, has proven be one most difficult adaptation options undertake because complex economic, social-cultural psychological factors that shape individual community responses relocation process. Among these factors, place attachment expected possibilities for disrupts bonds identities individuals communities have invested place. Research intersection limited, partially are complicated constructs, each with confusing terminologies. By viewing concept as a form mobility-based adaptation, this paper attempts gain insights other mobility-related fields. We find mobility research contributed development more dynamic view attachment: such explored role either constraining or prompting decisions relocate, started explore how process responds disruptions influences recovery relocation. Beyond informing scholars practitioners, synthesis identifies several need attention. These needs include qualitative better understand dualistic attachments longitudinal about experiences fully comprehend during after relocation, increased exploration whether can help provide stability continuity

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Changes in daily precipitation extremes over the Fiji Islands (1905-2021) DOI Creative Commons
Beatriz Fernández‐Duque,

R. Kumar,

Ahmed El Kenawy

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Ноя. 25, 2024

Abstract Changes in daily precipitation extremes were assessed for the Fiji Islands from 1905 to 2021 using quality-controlled and homogenized series. A set of 23 indices, spanning a wide variability characteristics, including frequency, magnitude duration, employed. extreme events nonparametric Kendall’s Tau-based slope estimator, while significance these changes was tested Mann Kendall statistic at 95% confidence interval (p < 0.05). Results are presented different time periods over study domain, 1905–2021, 1935–2021, 1960–2021. suggest general increase most as evidenced by significant trend intensity (rx1day rx5d) period albeit with strong spatial temporal variability. Most observed statistically non-significant > Stations on leeward side Viti Levu showed drier conditions, compared those windward side. indices like dr1mm dr3mm show varied patterns across periods, substantial between sides Levu. Our findings can contribute development planning sustainable strategies assure water security adaptative responses Islands. Also, due their isolation relatively undisturbed ecosystems, our results serve early indicators climate change remote oceanic islands.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Changes in daily precipitation extremes over the Fiji Islands (1905–2021) DOI Creative Commons
Beatriz Fernández‐Duque,

R. Kumar,

Ahmed El Kenawy

и другие.

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Дек. 31, 2024

Abstract We assessed changes in daily precipitation extremes for the Fiji Islands from 1905 to 2021 using quality-controlled and homogenized series. employed a set of 23 indices that span wide variability characteristics, including frequency, magnitude, duration. Changes extreme events were non-parametric Kendall’s Tau-based slope estimator, while significance these was tested Mann Kendall statistic at 95% confidence interval ( p < 0.05). Results are presented different time periods over study domain, 1905–2021, 1935–2021, 1960–2021. suggest general increase most indices, as evidenced by significant intensification intensity (e.g., rx1day rx5d) period 1905–2021. Most observed statistically non-significant > 0.05), especially during like metrics days with more than certain amount (i.e., dr1mm dr3mm) showed varied patterns across periods. Spatially, stations on leeward side Viti Levu drier conditions compared those windward side, suggesting strong spatial between sides. Our findings can contribute development planning sustainable strategies assure water security adaptative responses Islands. Also, due their isolation relatively undisturbed ecosystems, our results serve early indicators climate change remote oceanic islands.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action DOI Creative Commons
Pui Man Kam,

Fabio Ciccone,

Chahan M. Kropf

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2024

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) displace millions every year. While TCs pose hardships and threaten lives, their negative impacts can be reduced by anticipatory actions like evacuation humanitarian aid coordination. In addition to weather forecasts, impact forecast enables more effective response providing richer information on the numbers locations of people at risk displacement. We introduce a fully open-source implementation globally consistent regionally calibrated TC-related displacement low computational costs, combining meteorological with population exposure respective vulnerability. present case study TC Yasa which hit Fiji in December 2020. emphasise importance considering uncertainties associated hazard, exposure, vulnerability global uncertainty analysis, reveals considerable spread possible outcomes. Additionally, we perform sensitivity analysis all recorded events from 2017 2020 understand how outcomes depend these uncertain inputs. Our findings suggest that for longer lead times, decision-making should focus uncertainty, while greater emphasis placed local community shortly before landfall. codes implementations are readily transferable other users, hazards, types.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0